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Wednesday, 15 May 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - THEODORE NTALAKOS
Modern warfare - Trade wars & sanctions
As of May 1st, the U.S. has ended waivers to the sanctions that had allowed the top buyers of Iranian oil to continue their imports. China is the world's No1 oil importer and a major buyer of Iranian Oil. The May 1 deadline coincided with the US trade representatives traveling to Beijing and while in April Trump was tweeting that whilst there are still differences, the two sides are closer to a trade deal; the move of eliminating the waivers could be linked to the trade talks and most probably even served as an irritant between Beijing and Washington. Making China's energy imports challenging and subject to U.S. Jurisdiction is not something that can be easily digested and its timing is rather unusual, in one of the supposed final rounds of trade negotiations.
So, right when everybody thought that the trade war might be winding down, the trade frictions have suddenly worsened last week when Trump vented about China renegotiating agreed positions, and announced a 25% tariff on $200b worth of Chinese products. Additionally the US administration said it will impose 25% tariff on all remaining imports from China, $300b, or so.
China has retaliated by announcing that they will increase the tariffs on about $60b in U.S. exports, including hundreds of agricultural, mining, and manufactured products, threatening jobs and profits at companies in and around the United States. The Chinese tariffs of 25% will fall mostly on products that China has a surplus or self-reliance, such as steel, chemicals or textiles while goods that they don't produce will be taxed with 5%.
China depends on the U.S. mostly for high-end products, such as electronics, machinery, precision equipment, aircraft and parts, vehicles and parts, and oil and gas and the Chinese government looks like they have handpicked the goods where the tax will be increased to 25%. One U.S. industry that will be heavily affected is the LNG exports which will face a 25% tariff. LNG shipping firms have also seen their share prices dip. While China, who is already the second largest importer of LNG, will increase their LNG imports by 50% by 2025, the price will be the most decisive factors for the amount and origin of imports. This will only become more important with the startup of the gas pipeline between China and Russia. President Trump knows that and has pushed China to sign deals to import LNG.
The next few weeks will be critical. The worst case - no deal – scenario, or even if coming to an agreement gets anywhere close to 2020, will be a game changer. Tariffs on all trades between US and China plus other administrative actions will lead to a slowdown in investment, rising costs and business uncertainty that will probably lead in a recession in the US and given the weakness in the European economy, Europe would suffer as well with the negative effects spreading across other economies eventually.
On the other hand, negotiations have come a long way. President Trump and Chinese president Xi Jinping will attend the G20 meetings in Osaka at the end of June, so there is hope that the two sides will make amends by then. The challenges to a trade deal would probably grow if the two administrations can’t reach an agreement, so most probably things will get worse before they get better.
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 08 April 19
SULPHUR 2020 - COUNTDOWN TO THE SWITCHOVER - LLOYD'S REGISTER
Sulphur 2020 (MARPOL Annex VI Reg. 14.1.3) is still dominating headlines and as we draw closer to the 1 January 2020 deadline it’s clear that ...
Monday, 08 April 19
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE PRICE PLUMMETS TO LOW NOT SEEN SINCE AUGUST 2017
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal ...
Sunday, 07 April 19
SHIP PASSAGE PLANS - NO ROOM FOR ERROR! - WATSON FARLEY & WILLIAMS
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The English High Court’s judgment in Alize 1954 v Allianz Elementar Versicherungs AG (The CMA CGM Libra) is an impo ...
Sunday, 07 April 19
IMO 2020: READY OR NOT? - WOOD MACKENZIE
New Year’s Day 2020 is firmly marked in the calendar as the refining and shipping industries prepare for change.
The International Marit ...
Saturday, 06 April 19
AUSTRALIA COAL POSTS BIGGEST WEEKLY DROP IN A DECADE AMID WEAK DEMAND - REUTERS
Australian thermal coal prices this week registered their biggest weekly fall since the financial market turmoil of a decade ago as demand plunged ...
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- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Planning Commission, India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
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