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Wednesday, 15 May 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - THEODORE NTALAKOS
 Modern warfare - Trade wars & sanctions
As of May 1st, the U.S. has ended waivers to the sanctions that had allowed the top buyers of Iranian oil to continue their imports. China is the world's No1 oil importer and a major buyer of Iranian Oil. The May 1 deadline coincided with the US trade representatives traveling to Beijing and while in April Trump was tweeting that whilst there are still differences, the two sides are closer to a trade deal; the move of eliminating the waivers could be linked to the trade talks and most probably even served as an irritant between Beijing and Washington. Making China's energy imports challenging and subject to U.S. Jurisdiction is not something that can be easily digested and its timing is rather unusual, in one of the supposed final rounds of trade negotiations.
So, right when everybody thought that the trade war might be winding down, the trade frictions have suddenly worsened last week when Trump vented about China renegotiating agreed positions, and announced a 25% tariff on $200b worth of Chinese products. Additionally the US administration said it will impose 25% tariff on all remaining imports from China, $300b, or so.
China has retaliated by announcing that they will increase the tariffs on about $60b in U.S. exports, including hundreds of agricultural, mining, and manufactured products, threatening jobs and profits at companies in and around the United States. The Chinese tariffs of 25% will fall mostly on products that China has a surplus or self-reliance, such as steel, chemicals or textiles while goods that they don't produce will be taxed with 5%.
China depends on the U.S. mostly for high-end products, such as electronics, machinery, precision equipment, aircraft and parts, vehicles and parts, and oil and gas and the Chinese government looks like they have handpicked the goods where the tax will be increased to 25%. One U.S. industry that will be heavily affected is the LNG exports which will face a 25% tariff. LNG shipping firms have also seen their share prices dip. While China, who is already the second largest importer of LNG, will increase their LNG imports by 50% by 2025, the price will be the most decisive factors for the amount and origin of imports. This will only become more important with the startup of the gas pipeline between China and Russia. President Trump knows that and has pushed China to sign deals to import LNG.
The next few weeks will be critical. The worst case - no deal – scenario, or even if coming to an agreement gets anywhere close to 2020, will be a game changer. Tariffs on all trades between US and China plus other administrative actions will lead to a slowdown in investment, rising costs and business uncertainty that will probably lead in a recession in the US and given the weakness in the European economy, Europe would suffer as well with the negative effects spreading across other economies eventually.
On the other hand, negotiations have come a long way. President Trump and Chinese president Xi Jinping will attend the G20 meetings in Osaka at the end of June, so there is hope that the two sides will make amends by then. The challenges to a trade deal would probably grow if the two administrations can’t reach an agreement, so most probably things will get worse before they get better.
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 10 April 19
CHINA'S GROWING THERMAL COAL SUPPLY TO PRESSURE EXPORTERS - FITCH RATINGS
Growing Chinese thermal coal supply is likely to lead to further tightening of import controls by the government, putting pressure on seaborne coal ...
Wednesday, 10 April 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The tragedy in Brazil’s Vale Brumadinho where a tailings dam collapsed in January ranks among the world’s worst mining disasters. It co ...
Monday, 08 April 19
5TH INDIA NUCLEAR NEW BUILD CONGRESS 2019
5th India Nuclear New Build Congress 2019
The congress in Mumbai aims to bring together representatives from governments, regulators ...
Monday, 08 April 19
THERMAL COAL PRICES FALL, INDIAN POWER PLANTS TO SEE LIMITED GAINS - BUSINESS STANDARD
Thermal coal prices are on a downward spiral globally. Australian coal prices have fallen nearly 20 per cent in the past week, and 40 per cent from ...
Monday, 08 April 19
CHEAP COAL SWELLS IN SOUTHEAST ASIA, FOILING GLOBAL GREEN PUSH - NIKKEI
Southeast Asian countries are turning to low-cost coal to satisfy their surging electricity demand as the West shies away from the fossil fuel unde ...
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- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Australian Coal Association
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
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