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Wednesday, 15 May 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - THEODORE NTALAKOS
 Modern warfare - Trade wars & sanctions
As of May 1st, the U.S. has ended waivers to the sanctions that had allowed the top buyers of Iranian oil to continue their imports. China is the world's No1 oil importer and a major buyer of Iranian Oil. The May 1 deadline coincided with the US trade representatives traveling to Beijing and while in April Trump was tweeting that whilst there are still differences, the two sides are closer to a trade deal; the move of eliminating the waivers could be linked to the trade talks and most probably even served as an irritant between Beijing and Washington. Making China's energy imports challenging and subject to U.S. Jurisdiction is not something that can be easily digested and its timing is rather unusual, in one of the supposed final rounds of trade negotiations.
So, right when everybody thought that the trade war might be winding down, the trade frictions have suddenly worsened last week when Trump vented about China renegotiating agreed positions, and announced a 25% tariff on $200b worth of Chinese products. Additionally the US administration said it will impose 25% tariff on all remaining imports from China, $300b, or so.
China has retaliated by announcing that they will increase the tariffs on about $60b in U.S. exports, including hundreds of agricultural, mining, and manufactured products, threatening jobs and profits at companies in and around the United States. The Chinese tariffs of 25% will fall mostly on products that China has a surplus or self-reliance, such as steel, chemicals or textiles while goods that they don't produce will be taxed with 5%.
China depends on the U.S. mostly for high-end products, such as electronics, machinery, precision equipment, aircraft and parts, vehicles and parts, and oil and gas and the Chinese government looks like they have handpicked the goods where the tax will be increased to 25%. One U.S. industry that will be heavily affected is the LNG exports which will face a 25% tariff. LNG shipping firms have also seen their share prices dip. While China, who is already the second largest importer of LNG, will increase their LNG imports by 50% by 2025, the price will be the most decisive factors for the amount and origin of imports. This will only become more important with the startup of the gas pipeline between China and Russia. President Trump knows that and has pushed China to sign deals to import LNG.
The next few weeks will be critical. The worst case - no deal – scenario, or even if coming to an agreement gets anywhere close to 2020, will be a game changer. Tariffs on all trades between US and China plus other administrative actions will lead to a slowdown in investment, rising costs and business uncertainty that will probably lead in a recession in the US and given the weakness in the European economy, Europe would suffer as well with the negative effects spreading across other economies eventually.
On the other hand, negotiations have come a long way. President Trump and Chinese president Xi Jinping will attend the G20 meetings in Osaka at the end of June, so there is hope that the two sides will make amends by then. The challenges to a trade deal would probably grow if the two administrations can’t reach an agreement, so most probably things will get worse before they get better.
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 12 April 19
U.S : MORE THAN 7 GW OF COAL-FIRED GENERATION IS SCHEDULED TO RETIRE BY THE END OF 2020 - EIA
EIA estimates that U.S. coal production decreased by 19 million short tons (MMst) (2%) in 2018, totaling 756 MMst.
EIA also expects ...
Friday, 12 April 19
GLENCORE WINS $520 MILLION DEAL TO SELL COAL TO MEXICO - REUTERS
Global trader Glencore has won contracts worth around $520 million to supply 4.94 million tonnes of coal to Mexico, state-run power utility the Fed ...
Thursday, 11 April 19
AUSTRALIAN COAL IN THE FRONTLINE OF CHINA'S SUPPLY GLUT - AUSTRALIAN FINANCIAL REVIEW
Australian coal will be hardest hit as China cuts foreign imports of its key energy source to tackle oversupply, and implements policies favouring ...
Wednesday, 10 April 19
COALTRANS ASIA - TAKE PART IN THE LARGEST COAL EVENT IN THE WORLD!
Take part in the largest coal event in the world!
Coaltrans Asia is back this June bringing together the entire international coal s ...
Wednesday, 10 April 19
KOSPO INVITED BIDS FOR 160K MT OF MIN. 3700 NCV COAL FOR JUNE LOADING
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 160,000 MT of min. 3,800 Kcal/kg ~max.4,100 ...
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- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Planning Commission, India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- White Energy Company Limited
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Parliament of New Zealand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
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