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Wednesday, 15 May 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - THEODORE NTALAKOS
 Modern warfare - Trade wars & sanctions
As of May 1st, the U.S. has ended waivers to the sanctions that had allowed the top buyers of Iranian oil to continue their imports. China is the world's No1 oil importer and a major buyer of Iranian Oil. The May 1 deadline coincided with the US trade representatives traveling to Beijing and while in April Trump was tweeting that whilst there are still differences, the two sides are closer to a trade deal; the move of eliminating the waivers could be linked to the trade talks and most probably even served as an irritant between Beijing and Washington. Making China's energy imports challenging and subject to U.S. Jurisdiction is not something that can be easily digested and its timing is rather unusual, in one of the supposed final rounds of trade negotiations.
So, right when everybody thought that the trade war might be winding down, the trade frictions have suddenly worsened last week when Trump vented about China renegotiating agreed positions, and announced a 25% tariff on $200b worth of Chinese products. Additionally the US administration said it will impose 25% tariff on all remaining imports from China, $300b, or so.
China has retaliated by announcing that they will increase the tariffs on about $60b in U.S. exports, including hundreds of agricultural, mining, and manufactured products, threatening jobs and profits at companies in and around the United States. The Chinese tariffs of 25% will fall mostly on products that China has a surplus or self-reliance, such as steel, chemicals or textiles while goods that they don't produce will be taxed with 5%.
China depends on the U.S. mostly for high-end products, such as electronics, machinery, precision equipment, aircraft and parts, vehicles and parts, and oil and gas and the Chinese government looks like they have handpicked the goods where the tax will be increased to 25%. One U.S. industry that will be heavily affected is the LNG exports which will face a 25% tariff. LNG shipping firms have also seen their share prices dip. While China, who is already the second largest importer of LNG, will increase their LNG imports by 50% by 2025, the price will be the most decisive factors for the amount and origin of imports. This will only become more important with the startup of the gas pipeline between China and Russia. President Trump knows that and has pushed China to sign deals to import LNG.
The next few weeks will be critical. The worst case - no deal – scenario, or even if coming to an agreement gets anywhere close to 2020, will be a game changer. Tariffs on all trades between US and China plus other administrative actions will lead to a slowdown in investment, rising costs and business uncertainty that will probably lead in a recession in the US and given the weakness in the European economy, Europe would suffer as well with the negative effects spreading across other economies eventually.
On the other hand, negotiations have come a long way. President Trump and Chinese president Xi Jinping will attend the G20 meetings in Osaka at the end of June, so there is hope that the two sides will make amends by then. The challenges to a trade deal would probably grow if the two administrations can’t reach an agreement, so most probably things will get worse before they get better.
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 17 April 19
LNG WESTERN AFRICA CONFERENCE 2019
The only LNG Focus Platform to Accelerate Investment and Cooperation in Western African Countries
LNG Western Africa Conference 2019 ...
Saturday, 13 April 19
IMO 2020 - DON'T SCRUB IT! - IVAR MYKLEBUST
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Höegh Autoliners stands firm on its decision not to implement scrubbers but comply with the IMO 2020 regulations by ...
Saturday, 13 April 19
CAPESIZE: WEST AUSTRALIA TO CHINA IRON ORE CARGOES LIFTING FROM $4.60 PMT TO ABOVE $5.00 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market saw a steep ascent from the depths of last week. The Baltic Capesize Index (BCI) 5TC opened on Monday at $5,099, although b ...
Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effecti ...
Friday, 12 April 19
OFFSHORE MENA CONGRESS 2019
Offshore MENA Congress 2019
Event Date : 11-12th Jun. 2019
Location : Cairo, Egypt
Offshore MENA Congress 2019 Offshor ...
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- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Planning Commission, India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
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