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Sunday, 20 January 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: A MARATHON, NOT A SPRINT - IEA
 Last month, we asked if there was a floor under prices following the signing of a new Vienna Agreement that aims to re-balance the oil market. Following an initial burst of enthusiasm for the deal, scepticism set in, alongside worries about the global economic background. Prices fell by $10/bbl with Brent crude oil bottoming out on 24 December at just above $50/bbl. For the producers, this was unwelcome, but for consumers it provided a nice present for the holidays. In the US Gulf Coast, gasoline prices in early January averaged $1.89/gal versus the summer peak of $2.79/gal and in India, prices are about 14% below the early October peak. Recently, leading producers have restated their commitment to cut output and data show that words were transformed into actions. In December, OPEC production fell by almost 600 kb/d and Saudi Arabia has signalled that, for its part, further significant cutbacks will take place in January and beyond.
The Brent price has moved back above $60/bbl, so the answer to our question posed last month seems to be a qualified yes, at least for now. However, the journey to a balanced market will take time, and is more likely to be a marathon than a sprint. While Saudi Arabia is determined to protect its price aspirations by delivering substantial production cuts, there is less clarity with regard to its Russian partner. Data show that Russia increased crude oil production in December to a new record near 11.5 mb/d and it is unclear when it will cut and by how much. Other non-OPEC countries joining in the output deal saw higher output, including Mexico.
Elsewhere, there are signs that market re-balancing will be gradual. The trajectory of Iran’s production and exports remains important. In December, total exports increased slightly to over 1.3 mb/d. With US waivers allowing Iran’s major customers to buy higher volumes than was previously thought, more oil will remain in the market in the early part of 2019. Venezuela has seen the collapse of its oil industry slow during the second half of 2018 with production falling recently by about 10 kb/d each month rather than by the 40 kb/d we saw earlier in the year. The level of output in the world’s biggest liquids producer, the United States, will once again be a major factor in 2019. We saw incredible and unexpected growth in total liquids production of 2.1 mb/d in 2018. For this year, we have left unchanged for now our forecast for growth of 1.3 mb/d. While the other two giants voluntarily cut output, the US, already the biggest liquids supplier, will reinforce its leadership as the world’s number one crude producer. By the middle of the year, US crude output will probably be more than the capacity of either Saudi Arabia or Russia.
For oil demand, there is a mixed picture. Falling prices in 4Q18 helped consumers and there are signs that trade tensions might be easing. In many developing countries, lower international oil prices coincide with a weaker dollar as the likelihood of higher US interest rates fades for now. However, the mood music in the global economy is not very cheerful. Confidence is weakening in several major economies. In the short term, there is added uncertainty about oil demand due to the onset of the northern hemisphere winter season, with low temperatures seen in the past few days in many places. For now, we retain our view that demand growth in 2018 was 1.3 mb/d, and this year it will be slightly higher at 1.4 mb/d, mainly due to average prices being below year-ago levels.
In the meantime, refiners face a challenging year. Processing capacity will increase by 2.6 mb/d, the biggest growth for four decades, while margins are already pressured by low gasoline cracks due to oversupply and weak demand. The well-trailed changes to the International Maritime Organisation’s marine fuel regulations due in 2020 are another big issue for some refiners as they seek to find outlets for unwanted high sulphur fuel oil. By the end of the year, all industry players, upstream and downstream, may feel as if they have run a marathon.
Source: IEA
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Wednesday, 24 July 19
COAL'S DEMISE QUICKENS IN EUROPE AS MARKET SHIFT IDLES PLANTS - BLOOMBERG
Commodity markets are stripping away the case for coal in Europe, moving quicker than government efforts to close the most polluting power plants.
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Monday, 22 July 19
SUPRAMAX: THE ASIAN ARENA SAW INCREASED ACTIVITY AND STRONGER NUMBERS BEING CONCLUDED; INDONESIAN ROUNDS REMAINED FIRM - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Another week of gains as the Atlantic basin continues to be pressurised on tonnage and Brazilian cargoes keep up a steady flow. The Ca ...
Thursday, 18 July 19
WORLD TRADE IN HARD COAL ROSE BY 4.7% IN 2018 - GERMANY COAL IMPORTERS ASSOCIATION
World Trade in Hard Coal Rose by 4.7% in 2018
Hard Coal Can Prevent Stress in the Electric Power System in Germany
• Sharp decl ...
Wednesday, 17 July 19
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The Strait of Hormuz is one of the most important waterways in the world, connecting crude producers in the Middle East with key markets in the res ...
Tuesday, 16 July 19
KING COAL RULES IN JAPAN AS POWER UTILITIES IN THRALL TO LOW-COST FUEL - REUTERS
Japanese utilities will rely on the return of coal-fired power plants from maintenance to meet peak electricity demand this summer, highlighting th ...
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- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Planning Commission, India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- The University of Queensland
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
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