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Sunday, 20 January 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: A MARATHON, NOT A SPRINT - IEA
 Last month, we asked if there was a floor under prices following the signing of a new Vienna Agreement that aims to re-balance the oil market. Following an initial burst of enthusiasm for the deal, scepticism set in, alongside worries about the global economic background. Prices fell by $10/bbl with Brent crude oil bottoming out on 24 December at just above $50/bbl. For the producers, this was unwelcome, but for consumers it provided a nice present for the holidays. In the US Gulf Coast, gasoline prices in early January averaged $1.89/gal versus the summer peak of $2.79/gal and in India, prices are about 14% below the early October peak. Recently, leading producers have restated their commitment to cut output and data show that words were transformed into actions. In December, OPEC production fell by almost 600 kb/d and Saudi Arabia has signalled that, for its part, further significant cutbacks will take place in January and beyond.
The Brent price has moved back above $60/bbl, so the answer to our question posed last month seems to be a qualified yes, at least for now. However, the journey to a balanced market will take time, and is more likely to be a marathon than a sprint. While Saudi Arabia is determined to protect its price aspirations by delivering substantial production cuts, there is less clarity with regard to its Russian partner. Data show that Russia increased crude oil production in December to a new record near 11.5 mb/d and it is unclear when it will cut and by how much. Other non-OPEC countries joining in the output deal saw higher output, including Mexico.
Elsewhere, there are signs that market re-balancing will be gradual. The trajectory of Iran’s production and exports remains important. In December, total exports increased slightly to over 1.3 mb/d. With US waivers allowing Iran’s major customers to buy higher volumes than was previously thought, more oil will remain in the market in the early part of 2019. Venezuela has seen the collapse of its oil industry slow during the second half of 2018 with production falling recently by about 10 kb/d each month rather than by the 40 kb/d we saw earlier in the year. The level of output in the world’s biggest liquids producer, the United States, will once again be a major factor in 2019. We saw incredible and unexpected growth in total liquids production of 2.1 mb/d in 2018. For this year, we have left unchanged for now our forecast for growth of 1.3 mb/d. While the other two giants voluntarily cut output, the US, already the biggest liquids supplier, will reinforce its leadership as the world’s number one crude producer. By the middle of the year, US crude output will probably be more than the capacity of either Saudi Arabia or Russia.
For oil demand, there is a mixed picture. Falling prices in 4Q18 helped consumers and there are signs that trade tensions might be easing. In many developing countries, lower international oil prices coincide with a weaker dollar as the likelihood of higher US interest rates fades for now. However, the mood music in the global economy is not very cheerful. Confidence is weakening in several major economies. In the short term, there is added uncertainty about oil demand due to the onset of the northern hemisphere winter season, with low temperatures seen in the past few days in many places. For now, we retain our view that demand growth in 2018 was 1.3 mb/d, and this year it will be slightly higher at 1.4 mb/d, mainly due to average prices being below year-ago levels.
In the meantime, refiners face a challenging year. Processing capacity will increase by 2.6 mb/d, the biggest growth for four decades, while margins are already pressured by low gasoline cracks due to oversupply and weak demand. The well-trailed changes to the International Maritime Organisation’s marine fuel regulations due in 2020 are another big issue for some refiners as they seek to find outlets for unwanted high sulphur fuel oil. By the end of the year, all industry players, upstream and downstream, may feel as if they have run a marathon.
Source: IEA
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Wednesday, 31 July 19
INDIA'S 2019 THERMAL COAL IMPORTS SEEN AT 180-185 MLN T - WOODMAC
India is expected to import 180-185 million tonnes of thermal coal in 2019, said Dale Hazelton, head of thermal coal at consultancy Wood Mackenzie. ...
Wednesday, 31 July 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
It was a fairly busy week in the dry S&P market. Despite the ease of Capesize rates which impacted Panamaxes as well, interest from potential b ...
Sunday, 28 July 19
ULTRAMAX - INDONESIAN COAL CARGOES SAW A 63,000DWT SHIP FIXING DELIVERY FOR A SOUTH CHINA TRIP VIA INDONESIA, REDELIVERY CHINA, AT $11,700 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market was a white knuckled ride this past week as a large downside movement shed value quickly leaving many in bewilderment. The ...
Wednesday, 24 July 19
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX DOWN 0.27 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 138.78 points Monday, down 0.27 percent week on week.
The index, released by Chi ...
Wednesday, 24 July 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Tonnes of ink has been spent analysing the rebound of the dry bulk market the last weeks with the most representative example being the rising perf ...
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- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Australian Coal Association
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Planning Commission, India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
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