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Sunday, 20 January 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: A MARATHON, NOT A SPRINT - IEA
 Last month, we asked if there was a floor under prices following the signing of a new Vienna Agreement that aims to re-balance the oil market. Following an initial burst of enthusiasm for the deal, scepticism set in, alongside worries about the global economic background. Prices fell by $10/bbl with Brent crude oil bottoming out on 24 December at just above $50/bbl. For the producers, this was unwelcome, but for consumers it provided a nice present for the holidays. In the US Gulf Coast, gasoline prices in early January averaged $1.89/gal versus the summer peak of $2.79/gal and in India, prices are about 14% below the early October peak. Recently, leading producers have restated their commitment to cut output and data show that words were transformed into actions. In December, OPEC production fell by almost 600 kb/d and Saudi Arabia has signalled that, for its part, further significant cutbacks will take place in January and beyond.
The Brent price has moved back above $60/bbl, so the answer to our question posed last month seems to be a qualified yes, at least for now. However, the journey to a balanced market will take time, and is more likely to be a marathon than a sprint. While Saudi Arabia is determined to protect its price aspirations by delivering substantial production cuts, there is less clarity with regard to its Russian partner. Data show that Russia increased crude oil production in December to a new record near 11.5 mb/d and it is unclear when it will cut and by how much. Other non-OPEC countries joining in the output deal saw higher output, including Mexico.
Elsewhere, there are signs that market re-balancing will be gradual. The trajectory of Iran’s production and exports remains important. In December, total exports increased slightly to over 1.3 mb/d. With US waivers allowing Iran’s major customers to buy higher volumes than was previously thought, more oil will remain in the market in the early part of 2019. Venezuela has seen the collapse of its oil industry slow during the second half of 2018 with production falling recently by about 10 kb/d each month rather than by the 40 kb/d we saw earlier in the year. The level of output in the world’s biggest liquids producer, the United States, will once again be a major factor in 2019. We saw incredible and unexpected growth in total liquids production of 2.1 mb/d in 2018. For this year, we have left unchanged for now our forecast for growth of 1.3 mb/d. While the other two giants voluntarily cut output, the US, already the biggest liquids supplier, will reinforce its leadership as the world’s number one crude producer. By the middle of the year, US crude output will probably be more than the capacity of either Saudi Arabia or Russia.
For oil demand, there is a mixed picture. Falling prices in 4Q18 helped consumers and there are signs that trade tensions might be easing. In many developing countries, lower international oil prices coincide with a weaker dollar as the likelihood of higher US interest rates fades for now. However, the mood music in the global economy is not very cheerful. Confidence is weakening in several major economies. In the short term, there is added uncertainty about oil demand due to the onset of the northern hemisphere winter season, with low temperatures seen in the past few days in many places. For now, we retain our view that demand growth in 2018 was 1.3 mb/d, and this year it will be slightly higher at 1.4 mb/d, mainly due to average prices being below year-ago levels.
In the meantime, refiners face a challenging year. Processing capacity will increase by 2.6 mb/d, the biggest growth for four decades, while margins are already pressured by low gasoline cracks due to oversupply and weak demand. The well-trailed changes to the International Maritime Organisation’s marine fuel regulations due in 2020 are another big issue for some refiners as they seek to find outlets for unwanted high sulphur fuel oil. By the end of the year, all industry players, upstream and downstream, may feel as if they have run a marathon.
Source: IEA
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Tuesday, 16 July 19
SUPRAMAX: THE ASIAN ARENA WAS SPLIT, WITH A BUILD-UP OF TONNAGE AND LACK OF ENQUIRY IN THE NORTH - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
It was a Brazilian affair with a strong splash of bunkers characterising the Capesize market over the past week. Largely traded in Eur ...
Wednesday, 10 July 19
KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER INVITES BIDS FOR HCV AND LCV COAL FOR AUGUST 2019 LOADING
COALspot.com: South Korea’s Korea South-East Power Co., Ltd. (KOEN) has issued an international tender for total 460,000 to 500,000 Metric To ...
Wednesday, 10 July 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
In contrast with the general expectations for the dry bulk market, the sector was not positive or even stable during the past 6 months. The warning ...
Monday, 08 July 19
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE POSTS BIGGEST MONTHLY LOSS SINCE JANUARY 2017
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down again the benchmark price of Indonesian th ...
Monday, 08 July 19
ULTRAMAX: A 52,000-TONNER OPEN CJK FIXED FOR A TRIP VIA INDONESIA WITH RE-DELIVERY CHINA AT $6,100 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market surged over the past week, reaching highs not seen since August last year. Widespread activity in both basins saw ...
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- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Australian Coal Association
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
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