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Sunday, 20 January 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: A MARATHON, NOT A SPRINT - IEA
 Last month, we asked if there was a floor under prices following the signing of a new Vienna Agreement that aims to re-balance the oil market. Following an initial burst of enthusiasm for the deal, scepticism set in, alongside worries about the global economic background. Prices fell by $10/bbl with Brent crude oil bottoming out on 24 December at just above $50/bbl. For the producers, this was unwelcome, but for consumers it provided a nice present for the holidays. In the US Gulf Coast, gasoline prices in early January averaged $1.89/gal versus the summer peak of $2.79/gal and in India, prices are about 14% below the early October peak. Recently, leading producers have restated their commitment to cut output and data show that words were transformed into actions. In December, OPEC production fell by almost 600 kb/d and Saudi Arabia has signalled that, for its part, further significant cutbacks will take place in January and beyond.
The Brent price has moved back above $60/bbl, so the answer to our question posed last month seems to be a qualified yes, at least for now. However, the journey to a balanced market will take time, and is more likely to be a marathon than a sprint. While Saudi Arabia is determined to protect its price aspirations by delivering substantial production cuts, there is less clarity with regard to its Russian partner. Data show that Russia increased crude oil production in December to a new record near 11.5 mb/d and it is unclear when it will cut and by how much. Other non-OPEC countries joining in the output deal saw higher output, including Mexico.
Elsewhere, there are signs that market re-balancing will be gradual. The trajectory of Iran’s production and exports remains important. In December, total exports increased slightly to over 1.3 mb/d. With US waivers allowing Iran’s major customers to buy higher volumes than was previously thought, more oil will remain in the market in the early part of 2019. Venezuela has seen the collapse of its oil industry slow during the second half of 2018 with production falling recently by about 10 kb/d each month rather than by the 40 kb/d we saw earlier in the year. The level of output in the world’s biggest liquids producer, the United States, will once again be a major factor in 2019. We saw incredible and unexpected growth in total liquids production of 2.1 mb/d in 2018. For this year, we have left unchanged for now our forecast for growth of 1.3 mb/d. While the other two giants voluntarily cut output, the US, already the biggest liquids supplier, will reinforce its leadership as the world’s number one crude producer. By the middle of the year, US crude output will probably be more than the capacity of either Saudi Arabia or Russia.
For oil demand, there is a mixed picture. Falling prices in 4Q18 helped consumers and there are signs that trade tensions might be easing. In many developing countries, lower international oil prices coincide with a weaker dollar as the likelihood of higher US interest rates fades for now. However, the mood music in the global economy is not very cheerful. Confidence is weakening in several major economies. In the short term, there is added uncertainty about oil demand due to the onset of the northern hemisphere winter season, with low temperatures seen in the past few days in many places. For now, we retain our view that demand growth in 2018 was 1.3 mb/d, and this year it will be slightly higher at 1.4 mb/d, mainly due to average prices being below year-ago levels.
In the meantime, refiners face a challenging year. Processing capacity will increase by 2.6 mb/d, the biggest growth for four decades, while margins are already pressured by low gasoline cracks due to oversupply and weak demand. The well-trailed changes to the International Maritime Organisation’s marine fuel regulations due in 2020 are another big issue for some refiners as they seek to find outlets for unwanted high sulphur fuel oil. By the end of the year, all industry players, upstream and downstream, may feel as if they have run a marathon.
Source: IEA
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Sunday, 11 August 19
ULTRAMAX: A 58,000DWT VESSEL OPEN KEMAMAN FIXED FOR TWO TO THREE LADEN LEGS, REDELIVERY SINGAPORE-JAPAN, AT $12,250 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
With typhoon Lekima gathering pace, numerous China ports were closed by the end of the week and will likely be for two to three days. ...
Tuesday, 06 August 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
On the 12th of May four tankers were attacked near the coast of Fujairah. The tankers hit were waiving international flags such as that of No ...
Monday, 05 August 19
SUPRAMAX: COAL FROM INDONESIA TO CHINA PAID AT MID $8,000S ON A 57,000-TONNER DELIVERY SOUTH CHINA - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Having hit a high of $32,963 early last week, the Capesize 5TC now stands at $25,749. This is over 20% of its value lost in 10 days. C ...
Thursday, 01 August 19
PANAMAX: THE SENTIMENT IN THE MARKET IS STILL POSITIVE FOR THE LONGER TERM - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
Two weeks ago the 5TC index was at 33,000 USD pd. Since then it has fallen off a bit and has stayed around 27,000 USD pd the last week ...
Thursday, 01 August 19
INDIKA ENERGY REVENUES DECLINE DUE TO LOW COAL PRICES
One of the largest Indonesian integrated energy companies PT Indika Energy Tbk posted revenues of US $ 1,380.4 million, down 4.6% compared to US $ ...
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- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- The University of Queensland
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Planning Commission, India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- VISA Power Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Australian Coal Association
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
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