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Sunday, 20 January 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: A MARATHON, NOT A SPRINT - IEA
 Last month, we asked if there was a floor under prices following the signing of a new Vienna Agreement that aims to re-balance the oil market. Following an initial burst of enthusiasm for the deal, scepticism set in, alongside worries about the global economic background. Prices fell by $10/bbl with Brent crude oil bottoming out on 24 December at just above $50/bbl. For the producers, this was unwelcome, but for consumers it provided a nice present for the holidays. In the US Gulf Coast, gasoline prices in early January averaged $1.89/gal versus the summer peak of $2.79/gal and in India, prices are about 14% below the early October peak. Recently, leading producers have restated their commitment to cut output and data show that words were transformed into actions. In December, OPEC production fell by almost 600 kb/d and Saudi Arabia has signalled that, for its part, further significant cutbacks will take place in January and beyond.
The Brent price has moved back above $60/bbl, so the answer to our question posed last month seems to be a qualified yes, at least for now. However, the journey to a balanced market will take time, and is more likely to be a marathon than a sprint. While Saudi Arabia is determined to protect its price aspirations by delivering substantial production cuts, there is less clarity with regard to its Russian partner. Data show that Russia increased crude oil production in December to a new record near 11.5 mb/d and it is unclear when it will cut and by how much. Other non-OPEC countries joining in the output deal saw higher output, including Mexico.
Elsewhere, there are signs that market re-balancing will be gradual. The trajectory of Iran’s production and exports remains important. In December, total exports increased slightly to over 1.3 mb/d. With US waivers allowing Iran’s major customers to buy higher volumes than was previously thought, more oil will remain in the market in the early part of 2019. Venezuela has seen the collapse of its oil industry slow during the second half of 2018 with production falling recently by about 10 kb/d each month rather than by the 40 kb/d we saw earlier in the year. The level of output in the world’s biggest liquids producer, the United States, will once again be a major factor in 2019. We saw incredible and unexpected growth in total liquids production of 2.1 mb/d in 2018. For this year, we have left unchanged for now our forecast for growth of 1.3 mb/d. While the other two giants voluntarily cut output, the US, already the biggest liquids supplier, will reinforce its leadership as the world’s number one crude producer. By the middle of the year, US crude output will probably be more than the capacity of either Saudi Arabia or Russia.
For oil demand, there is a mixed picture. Falling prices in 4Q18 helped consumers and there are signs that trade tensions might be easing. In many developing countries, lower international oil prices coincide with a weaker dollar as the likelihood of higher US interest rates fades for now. However, the mood music in the global economy is not very cheerful. Confidence is weakening in several major economies. In the short term, there is added uncertainty about oil demand due to the onset of the northern hemisphere winter season, with low temperatures seen in the past few days in many places. For now, we retain our view that demand growth in 2018 was 1.3 mb/d, and this year it will be slightly higher at 1.4 mb/d, mainly due to average prices being below year-ago levels.
In the meantime, refiners face a challenging year. Processing capacity will increase by 2.6 mb/d, the biggest growth for four decades, while margins are already pressured by low gasoline cracks due to oversupply and weak demand. The well-trailed changes to the International Maritime Organisation’s marine fuel regulations due in 2020 are another big issue for some refiners as they seek to find outlets for unwanted high sulphur fuel oil. By the end of the year, all industry players, upstream and downstream, may feel as if they have run a marathon.
Source: IEA
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Wednesday, 03 July 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The global shipping industry is facing numerous challenges at a time when geopolitical turmoil has escalated in view of the recent tension in the M ...
Monday, 01 July 19
COAL DEMAND RISES, BUT REMAINS BELOW PEAK LEVELS - FORBES
This article is the third in a series on BP’s recently-released Statistical Review of World Energy 2019. The Review provides a comprehensive ...
Saturday, 29 June 19
ULTRAMAX: FROM SOUTHEAST ASIA MORE COAL WAS ENTERING THE MARKET - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market showed variability over the past week, as most routes were active yet sentiment differed from region to region. The Pacific ...
Wednesday, 26 June 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As the first half of the year is almost over, it is worth looking back at the sale and purchase activity during these months, focusing on the segme ...
Tuesday, 25 June 19
THERMAL COAL FUTURES ON THE ZHENGSHOU EXCHANGE ROSE - DANIEL HYNES
Coal markets were buoyed by ongoing supply side issues.
According to Daniel Hynes, Senior Commodity Strategist of ANZ, the the ...
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- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- The University of Queensland
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Australian Coal Association
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