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Sunday, 20 January 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: A MARATHON, NOT A SPRINT - IEA
 Last month, we asked if there was a floor under prices following the signing of a new Vienna Agreement that aims to re-balance the oil market. Following an initial burst of enthusiasm for the deal, scepticism set in, alongside worries about the global economic background. Prices fell by $10/bbl with Brent crude oil bottoming out on 24 December at just above $50/bbl. For the producers, this was unwelcome, but for consumers it provided a nice present for the holidays. In the US Gulf Coast, gasoline prices in early January averaged $1.89/gal versus the summer peak of $2.79/gal and in India, prices are about 14% below the early October peak. Recently, leading producers have restated their commitment to cut output and data show that words were transformed into actions. In December, OPEC production fell by almost 600 kb/d and Saudi Arabia has signalled that, for its part, further significant cutbacks will take place in January and beyond.
The Brent price has moved back above $60/bbl, so the answer to our question posed last month seems to be a qualified yes, at least for now. However, the journey to a balanced market will take time, and is more likely to be a marathon than a sprint. While Saudi Arabia is determined to protect its price aspirations by delivering substantial production cuts, there is less clarity with regard to its Russian partner. Data show that Russia increased crude oil production in December to a new record near 11.5 mb/d and it is unclear when it will cut and by how much. Other non-OPEC countries joining in the output deal saw higher output, including Mexico.
Elsewhere, there are signs that market re-balancing will be gradual. The trajectory of Iran’s production and exports remains important. In December, total exports increased slightly to over 1.3 mb/d. With US waivers allowing Iran’s major customers to buy higher volumes than was previously thought, more oil will remain in the market in the early part of 2019. Venezuela has seen the collapse of its oil industry slow during the second half of 2018 with production falling recently by about 10 kb/d each month rather than by the 40 kb/d we saw earlier in the year. The level of output in the world’s biggest liquids producer, the United States, will once again be a major factor in 2019. We saw incredible and unexpected growth in total liquids production of 2.1 mb/d in 2018. For this year, we have left unchanged for now our forecast for growth of 1.3 mb/d. While the other two giants voluntarily cut output, the US, already the biggest liquids supplier, will reinforce its leadership as the world’s number one crude producer. By the middle of the year, US crude output will probably be more than the capacity of either Saudi Arabia or Russia.
For oil demand, there is a mixed picture. Falling prices in 4Q18 helped consumers and there are signs that trade tensions might be easing. In many developing countries, lower international oil prices coincide with a weaker dollar as the likelihood of higher US interest rates fades for now. However, the mood music in the global economy is not very cheerful. Confidence is weakening in several major economies. In the short term, there is added uncertainty about oil demand due to the onset of the northern hemisphere winter season, with low temperatures seen in the past few days in many places. For now, we retain our view that demand growth in 2018 was 1.3 mb/d, and this year it will be slightly higher at 1.4 mb/d, mainly due to average prices being below year-ago levels.
In the meantime, refiners face a challenging year. Processing capacity will increase by 2.6 mb/d, the biggest growth for four decades, while margins are already pressured by low gasoline cracks due to oversupply and weak demand. The well-trailed changes to the International Maritime Organisation’s marine fuel regulations due in 2020 are another big issue for some refiners as they seek to find outlets for unwanted high sulphur fuel oil. By the end of the year, all industry players, upstream and downstream, may feel as if they have run a marathon.
Source: IEA
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Monday, 23 September 19
CHINA RECORDS SLOWER GROWTH IN COAL PRODUCTION - XINHUA
The growth of China’s raw coal production slowed down in August, data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed.
Aro ...
Friday, 20 September 19
INDIA TO INVITE BIDS FOR COMMERCIAL COAL MINING IN DECEMBER - MINISTER FOR COAL
India aims to begin the process of holding the first round of commercial coal mining auctions December end, Minister for Coal, Mines and Parliament ...
Friday, 20 September 19
INDIA: ECONOMIC SLOWDOWN IMPACTS COAL IMPORT CARGO IN H1 FY20 - PTI
Economic slowdown has impacted coal import cargo in the first half of this fiscal, as overall cargo growth at major ports registered a marginal gro ...
Wednesday, 18 September 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
During the first week of September, I had the privilege of attending the Donsö Shipping Meet 2019, in Donsö, a small island of around 1,& ...
Tuesday, 17 September 19
PANAMA SHIP REGISTRY MODERNIZES SHIP REGISTRATION
The Panama Ship Registry has announced it will integrate in a single platform “Electronic Ship Registration System (ESRS)” the present ...
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- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- White Energy Company Limited
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
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