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Sunday, 20 January 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: A MARATHON, NOT A SPRINT - IEA
 Last month, we asked if there was a floor under prices following the signing of a new Vienna Agreement that aims to re-balance the oil market. Following an initial burst of enthusiasm for the deal, scepticism set in, alongside worries about the global economic background. Prices fell by $10/bbl with Brent crude oil bottoming out on 24 December at just above $50/bbl. For the producers, this was unwelcome, but for consumers it provided a nice present for the holidays. In the US Gulf Coast, gasoline prices in early January averaged $1.89/gal versus the summer peak of $2.79/gal and in India, prices are about 14% below the early October peak. Recently, leading producers have restated their commitment to cut output and data show that words were transformed into actions. In December, OPEC production fell by almost 600 kb/d and Saudi Arabia has signalled that, for its part, further significant cutbacks will take place in January and beyond.
The Brent price has moved back above $60/bbl, so the answer to our question posed last month seems to be a qualified yes, at least for now. However, the journey to a balanced market will take time, and is more likely to be a marathon than a sprint. While Saudi Arabia is determined to protect its price aspirations by delivering substantial production cuts, there is less clarity with regard to its Russian partner. Data show that Russia increased crude oil production in December to a new record near 11.5 mb/d and it is unclear when it will cut and by how much. Other non-OPEC countries joining in the output deal saw higher output, including Mexico.
Elsewhere, there are signs that market re-balancing will be gradual. The trajectory of Iran’s production and exports remains important. In December, total exports increased slightly to over 1.3 mb/d. With US waivers allowing Iran’s major customers to buy higher volumes than was previously thought, more oil will remain in the market in the early part of 2019. Venezuela has seen the collapse of its oil industry slow during the second half of 2018 with production falling recently by about 10 kb/d each month rather than by the 40 kb/d we saw earlier in the year. The level of output in the world’s biggest liquids producer, the United States, will once again be a major factor in 2019. We saw incredible and unexpected growth in total liquids production of 2.1 mb/d in 2018. For this year, we have left unchanged for now our forecast for growth of 1.3 mb/d. While the other two giants voluntarily cut output, the US, already the biggest liquids supplier, will reinforce its leadership as the world’s number one crude producer. By the middle of the year, US crude output will probably be more than the capacity of either Saudi Arabia or Russia.
For oil demand, there is a mixed picture. Falling prices in 4Q18 helped consumers and there are signs that trade tensions might be easing. In many developing countries, lower international oil prices coincide with a weaker dollar as the likelihood of higher US interest rates fades for now. However, the mood music in the global economy is not very cheerful. Confidence is weakening in several major economies. In the short term, there is added uncertainty about oil demand due to the onset of the northern hemisphere winter season, with low temperatures seen in the past few days in many places. For now, we retain our view that demand growth in 2018 was 1.3 mb/d, and this year it will be slightly higher at 1.4 mb/d, mainly due to average prices being below year-ago levels.
In the meantime, refiners face a challenging year. Processing capacity will increase by 2.6 mb/d, the biggest growth for four decades, while margins are already pressured by low gasoline cracks due to oversupply and weak demand. The well-trailed changes to the International Maritime Organisation’s marine fuel regulations due in 2020 are another big issue for some refiners as they seek to find outlets for unwanted high sulphur fuel oil. By the end of the year, all industry players, upstream and downstream, may feel as if they have run a marathon.
Source: IEA
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Friday, 11 October 19
KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER TO IMPORT LCV COAL IN NOVEMBER
COALspot.com: South Korea’s Korea South-East Power Co., Ltd. (KOEN) has issued an international tender for 75,000 Metric Tons low calorific v ...
Thursday, 10 October 19
THERMAL COAL IMPORT LIKELY TO CROSS 200 MT IN 2019-20 - TIME OF INDIA
The country's overall thermal coal import is likely to cross the 200-million tonnes (MT) mark in the current financial year, according to Icra. ...
Wednesday, 09 October 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As we have already stated in previous insights, we had expected that the recovery on rates and activity across all segments in the offshore market ...
Thursday, 03 October 19
OIL PRICE ASSUMPTIONS UNCHANGED, NBP GAS PRICE LOWERED - FITCH RATINGS PRIMARY - FITCH RATINGS
Our oil price assumptions are unchanged, despite the recent price volatility following the attacks on Saudi Arabia's oil infrastructure, Fitch ...
Thursday, 03 October 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT
Edible oil products across the board are showing healthy amount of export activity, however, rates in most cases are struggling to move accordingly ...
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- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Planning Commission, India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- PTC India Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- White Energy Company Limited
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
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