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Sunday, 20 January 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: A MARATHON, NOT A SPRINT - IEA
 Last month, we asked if there was a floor under prices following the signing of a new Vienna Agreement that aims to re-balance the oil market. Following an initial burst of enthusiasm for the deal, scepticism set in, alongside worries about the global economic background. Prices fell by $10/bbl with Brent crude oil bottoming out on 24 December at just above $50/bbl. For the producers, this was unwelcome, but for consumers it provided a nice present for the holidays. In the US Gulf Coast, gasoline prices in early January averaged $1.89/gal versus the summer peak of $2.79/gal and in India, prices are about 14% below the early October peak. Recently, leading producers have restated their commitment to cut output and data show that words were transformed into actions. In December, OPEC production fell by almost 600 kb/d and Saudi Arabia has signalled that, for its part, further significant cutbacks will take place in January and beyond.
The Brent price has moved back above $60/bbl, so the answer to our question posed last month seems to be a qualified yes, at least for now. However, the journey to a balanced market will take time, and is more likely to be a marathon than a sprint. While Saudi Arabia is determined to protect its price aspirations by delivering substantial production cuts, there is less clarity with regard to its Russian partner. Data show that Russia increased crude oil production in December to a new record near 11.5 mb/d and it is unclear when it will cut and by how much. Other non-OPEC countries joining in the output deal saw higher output, including Mexico.
Elsewhere, there are signs that market re-balancing will be gradual. The trajectory of Iran’s production and exports remains important. In December, total exports increased slightly to over 1.3 mb/d. With US waivers allowing Iran’s major customers to buy higher volumes than was previously thought, more oil will remain in the market in the early part of 2019. Venezuela has seen the collapse of its oil industry slow during the second half of 2018 with production falling recently by about 10 kb/d each month rather than by the 40 kb/d we saw earlier in the year. The level of output in the world’s biggest liquids producer, the United States, will once again be a major factor in 2019. We saw incredible and unexpected growth in total liquids production of 2.1 mb/d in 2018. For this year, we have left unchanged for now our forecast for growth of 1.3 mb/d. While the other two giants voluntarily cut output, the US, already the biggest liquids supplier, will reinforce its leadership as the world’s number one crude producer. By the middle of the year, US crude output will probably be more than the capacity of either Saudi Arabia or Russia.
For oil demand, there is a mixed picture. Falling prices in 4Q18 helped consumers and there are signs that trade tensions might be easing. In many developing countries, lower international oil prices coincide with a weaker dollar as the likelihood of higher US interest rates fades for now. However, the mood music in the global economy is not very cheerful. Confidence is weakening in several major economies. In the short term, there is added uncertainty about oil demand due to the onset of the northern hemisphere winter season, with low temperatures seen in the past few days in many places. For now, we retain our view that demand growth in 2018 was 1.3 mb/d, and this year it will be slightly higher at 1.4 mb/d, mainly due to average prices being below year-ago levels.
In the meantime, refiners face a challenging year. Processing capacity will increase by 2.6 mb/d, the biggest growth for four decades, while margins are already pressured by low gasoline cracks due to oversupply and weak demand. The well-trailed changes to the International Maritime Organisation’s marine fuel regulations due in 2020 are another big issue for some refiners as they seek to find outlets for unwanted high sulphur fuel oil. By the end of the year, all industry players, upstream and downstream, may feel as if they have run a marathon.
Source: IEA
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Friday, 27 September 19
LOWDOWN ON INCOTERMS 2020 OVERHAUL - BALTIC EXCHANGE
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
This ninth revision of Incoterms is changed in style and substance. The revisions improve certain aspects of Incoterms 20 ...
Thursday, 26 September 19
INDIA INCREASES ITS ANNUAL COAL PRODUCTION BY 2.7% PER YEAR FROM 850 MILLION SHORT TONS IN 2018 TO 2 BILLION SHORT TONS BY 2050 - EIA
Worldwide coal production holds steady at about 8 billion short tons, or 160 quadrillion British thermal units (Btu), per year through 2040. Inc ...
Wednesday, 25 September 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
In the past five months there has been significant activity in the asset market with the dry bulk segment being by far the most volatile in terms o ...
Tuesday, 24 September 19
9TH ANNUAL SUPPLY CHAIN INNOVATION SUMMIT 2019 ASIA PACIFIC
Summit: 9th Annual Supply Chain Innovation Summit 2019 Asia Pacific
Host: Ace Events
Website: http: ...
Monday, 23 September 19
SUPRAMAX: THE ASIAN ARENA IT WAS A SLOW START, BUT DEMAND INCREASED AS THE WEEK WENT ON - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market trended down over this past week, breaking the market out of its upward trending range. While the market traded sideways at ...
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- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Australian Coal Association
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- White Energy Company Limited
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
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