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Sunday, 20 January 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: A MARATHON, NOT A SPRINT - IEA
 Last month, we asked if there was a floor under prices following the signing of a new Vienna Agreement that aims to re-balance the oil market. Following an initial burst of enthusiasm for the deal, scepticism set in, alongside worries about the global economic background. Prices fell by $10/bbl with Brent crude oil bottoming out on 24 December at just above $50/bbl. For the producers, this was unwelcome, but for consumers it provided a nice present for the holidays. In the US Gulf Coast, gasoline prices in early January averaged $1.89/gal versus the summer peak of $2.79/gal and in India, prices are about 14% below the early October peak. Recently, leading producers have restated their commitment to cut output and data show that words were transformed into actions. In December, OPEC production fell by almost 600 kb/d and Saudi Arabia has signalled that, for its part, further significant cutbacks will take place in January and beyond.
The Brent price has moved back above $60/bbl, so the answer to our question posed last month seems to be a qualified yes, at least for now. However, the journey to a balanced market will take time, and is more likely to be a marathon than a sprint. While Saudi Arabia is determined to protect its price aspirations by delivering substantial production cuts, there is less clarity with regard to its Russian partner. Data show that Russia increased crude oil production in December to a new record near 11.5 mb/d and it is unclear when it will cut and by how much. Other non-OPEC countries joining in the output deal saw higher output, including Mexico.
Elsewhere, there are signs that market re-balancing will be gradual. The trajectory of Iran’s production and exports remains important. In December, total exports increased slightly to over 1.3 mb/d. With US waivers allowing Iran’s major customers to buy higher volumes than was previously thought, more oil will remain in the market in the early part of 2019. Venezuela has seen the collapse of its oil industry slow during the second half of 2018 with production falling recently by about 10 kb/d each month rather than by the 40 kb/d we saw earlier in the year. The level of output in the world’s biggest liquids producer, the United States, will once again be a major factor in 2019. We saw incredible and unexpected growth in total liquids production of 2.1 mb/d in 2018. For this year, we have left unchanged for now our forecast for growth of 1.3 mb/d. While the other two giants voluntarily cut output, the US, already the biggest liquids supplier, will reinforce its leadership as the world’s number one crude producer. By the middle of the year, US crude output will probably be more than the capacity of either Saudi Arabia or Russia.
For oil demand, there is a mixed picture. Falling prices in 4Q18 helped consumers and there are signs that trade tensions might be easing. In many developing countries, lower international oil prices coincide with a weaker dollar as the likelihood of higher US interest rates fades for now. However, the mood music in the global economy is not very cheerful. Confidence is weakening in several major economies. In the short term, there is added uncertainty about oil demand due to the onset of the northern hemisphere winter season, with low temperatures seen in the past few days in many places. For now, we retain our view that demand growth in 2018 was 1.3 mb/d, and this year it will be slightly higher at 1.4 mb/d, mainly due to average prices being below year-ago levels.
In the meantime, refiners face a challenging year. Processing capacity will increase by 2.6 mb/d, the biggest growth for four decades, while margins are already pressured by low gasoline cracks due to oversupply and weak demand. The well-trailed changes to the International Maritime Organisation’s marine fuel regulations due in 2020 are another big issue for some refiners as they seek to find outlets for unwanted high sulphur fuel oil. By the end of the year, all industry players, upstream and downstream, may feel as if they have run a marathon.
Source: IEA
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Tuesday, 17 September 19
THE DRY BULK FREIGHT MARKET IS ALREADY ON A DOWNWARD CORRECTION - ALLIED
Here we are again, just a breath before the final quarter of the year. Under typical circumstances and on the basis of what we have seen during the ...
Monday, 16 September 19
COLOMBIAN COAL PRODUCTION TO FALL 5% THIS YEAR, MINING GROUP SAYS - REUTERS
Colombia’s coal production will decline to around 80 million tonnes in 2019, nearly 5% below last year’s, because of low prices and dro ...
Monday, 16 September 19
THE COAL-D SHOULDER? - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Good fortune and the number 13 don’t usually go hand in hand, but when it comes to coal, 2013 actually seems to have been the commodity&rsquo ...
Monday, 16 September 19
SCRUBBERS AND FUEL PROFIT SHARE CLAUSES - CLYDE&CO
From 1 January 2020, Regulation 14 of MARPOL Annex VI provides that the sulphur content in fuel oil used on board ships shall be reduced from a max ...
Monday, 16 September 19
KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER INVITES BIDS FOR MAX 1,290,000 METRIC TONS OF STEAMING COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea’s Korea East-West Power Co. Ltd has issued an international tender for total 1,290,000 Metric Tons steam coal.
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- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- White Energy Company Limited
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Economic Council, Georgia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
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