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Sunday, 20 January 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: A MARATHON, NOT A SPRINT - IEA
 Last month, we asked if there was a floor under prices following the signing of a new Vienna Agreement that aims to re-balance the oil market. Following an initial burst of enthusiasm for the deal, scepticism set in, alongside worries about the global economic background. Prices fell by $10/bbl with Brent crude oil bottoming out on 24 December at just above $50/bbl. For the producers, this was unwelcome, but for consumers it provided a nice present for the holidays. In the US Gulf Coast, gasoline prices in early January averaged $1.89/gal versus the summer peak of $2.79/gal and in India, prices are about 14% below the early October peak. Recently, leading producers have restated their commitment to cut output and data show that words were transformed into actions. In December, OPEC production fell by almost 600 kb/d and Saudi Arabia has signalled that, for its part, further significant cutbacks will take place in January and beyond.
The Brent price has moved back above $60/bbl, so the answer to our question posed last month seems to be a qualified yes, at least for now. However, the journey to a balanced market will take time, and is more likely to be a marathon than a sprint. While Saudi Arabia is determined to protect its price aspirations by delivering substantial production cuts, there is less clarity with regard to its Russian partner. Data show that Russia increased crude oil production in December to a new record near 11.5 mb/d and it is unclear when it will cut and by how much. Other non-OPEC countries joining in the output deal saw higher output, including Mexico.
Elsewhere, there are signs that market re-balancing will be gradual. The trajectory of Iran’s production and exports remains important. In December, total exports increased slightly to over 1.3 mb/d. With US waivers allowing Iran’s major customers to buy higher volumes than was previously thought, more oil will remain in the market in the early part of 2019. Venezuela has seen the collapse of its oil industry slow during the second half of 2018 with production falling recently by about 10 kb/d each month rather than by the 40 kb/d we saw earlier in the year. The level of output in the world’s biggest liquids producer, the United States, will once again be a major factor in 2019. We saw incredible and unexpected growth in total liquids production of 2.1 mb/d in 2018. For this year, we have left unchanged for now our forecast for growth of 1.3 mb/d. While the other two giants voluntarily cut output, the US, already the biggest liquids supplier, will reinforce its leadership as the world’s number one crude producer. By the middle of the year, US crude output will probably be more than the capacity of either Saudi Arabia or Russia.
For oil demand, there is a mixed picture. Falling prices in 4Q18 helped consumers and there are signs that trade tensions might be easing. In many developing countries, lower international oil prices coincide with a weaker dollar as the likelihood of higher US interest rates fades for now. However, the mood music in the global economy is not very cheerful. Confidence is weakening in several major economies. In the short term, there is added uncertainty about oil demand due to the onset of the northern hemisphere winter season, with low temperatures seen in the past few days in many places. For now, we retain our view that demand growth in 2018 was 1.3 mb/d, and this year it will be slightly higher at 1.4 mb/d, mainly due to average prices being below year-ago levels.
In the meantime, refiners face a challenging year. Processing capacity will increase by 2.6 mb/d, the biggest growth for four decades, while margins are already pressured by low gasoline cracks due to oversupply and weak demand. The well-trailed changes to the International Maritime Organisation’s marine fuel regulations due in 2020 are another big issue for some refiners as they seek to find outlets for unwanted high sulphur fuel oil. By the end of the year, all industry players, upstream and downstream, may feel as if they have run a marathon.
Source: IEA
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Sunday, 15 September 19
SUPRAMAX / ULTRAMAX: MORE STEMS WERE NOTICED GOING TO VIETNAM FROM INDONESIA - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Overall it was a negative week for the Capesize market, with many routes losing ground. A limited amount of time charter appeare ...
Wednesday, 11 September 19
THE INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE FELL HEAVILY IN SEPTEMBER
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal ...
Wednesday, 11 September 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
We are going through one of the rare instances where we see optimism building in the dry bulk industry and, as the momentum is still going, the bel ...
Monday, 09 September 19
INDIAN COMPANIES READY TO INVEST IN DEVELOPMENT OF NEW COAL DEPOSITS IN RUSSIA'S YAKUTIA - TASS
Indian metallurgical companies, which received trial batches of coal from Kolmar mining company, are satisfied with the quality of the products and ...
Monday, 09 September 19
COLOMBIA COAL OUTPUT DOWN YEAR-ON-YEAR IN 2ND QUARTER - REUTERS
Colombia, the world’s fifth-largest exporter of coal, produced 18.9 million tonnes of the fuel in the second quarter, down 4.5% from the same ...
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- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- White Energy Company Limited
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- The University of Queensland
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
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