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Sunday, 20 January 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: A MARATHON, NOT A SPRINT - IEA
 Last month, we asked if there was a floor under prices following the signing of a new Vienna Agreement that aims to re-balance the oil market. Following an initial burst of enthusiasm for the deal, scepticism set in, alongside worries about the global economic background. Prices fell by $10/bbl with Brent crude oil bottoming out on 24 December at just above $50/bbl. For the producers, this was unwelcome, but for consumers it provided a nice present for the holidays. In the US Gulf Coast, gasoline prices in early January averaged $1.89/gal versus the summer peak of $2.79/gal and in India, prices are about 14% below the early October peak. Recently, leading producers have restated their commitment to cut output and data show that words were transformed into actions. In December, OPEC production fell by almost 600 kb/d and Saudi Arabia has signalled that, for its part, further significant cutbacks will take place in January and beyond.
The Brent price has moved back above $60/bbl, so the answer to our question posed last month seems to be a qualified yes, at least for now. However, the journey to a balanced market will take time, and is more likely to be a marathon than a sprint. While Saudi Arabia is determined to protect its price aspirations by delivering substantial production cuts, there is less clarity with regard to its Russian partner. Data show that Russia increased crude oil production in December to a new record near 11.5 mb/d and it is unclear when it will cut and by how much. Other non-OPEC countries joining in the output deal saw higher output, including Mexico.
Elsewhere, there are signs that market re-balancing will be gradual. The trajectory of Iran’s production and exports remains important. In December, total exports increased slightly to over 1.3 mb/d. With US waivers allowing Iran’s major customers to buy higher volumes than was previously thought, more oil will remain in the market in the early part of 2019. Venezuela has seen the collapse of its oil industry slow during the second half of 2018 with production falling recently by about 10 kb/d each month rather than by the 40 kb/d we saw earlier in the year. The level of output in the world’s biggest liquids producer, the United States, will once again be a major factor in 2019. We saw incredible and unexpected growth in total liquids production of 2.1 mb/d in 2018. For this year, we have left unchanged for now our forecast for growth of 1.3 mb/d. While the other two giants voluntarily cut output, the US, already the biggest liquids supplier, will reinforce its leadership as the world’s number one crude producer. By the middle of the year, US crude output will probably be more than the capacity of either Saudi Arabia or Russia.
For oil demand, there is a mixed picture. Falling prices in 4Q18 helped consumers and there are signs that trade tensions might be easing. In many developing countries, lower international oil prices coincide with a weaker dollar as the likelihood of higher US interest rates fades for now. However, the mood music in the global economy is not very cheerful. Confidence is weakening in several major economies. In the short term, there is added uncertainty about oil demand due to the onset of the northern hemisphere winter season, with low temperatures seen in the past few days in many places. For now, we retain our view that demand growth in 2018 was 1.3 mb/d, and this year it will be slightly higher at 1.4 mb/d, mainly due to average prices being below year-ago levels.
In the meantime, refiners face a challenging year. Processing capacity will increase by 2.6 mb/d, the biggest growth for four decades, while margins are already pressured by low gasoline cracks due to oversupply and weak demand. The well-trailed changes to the International Maritime Organisation’s marine fuel regulations due in 2020 are another big issue for some refiners as they seek to find outlets for unwanted high sulphur fuel oil. By the end of the year, all industry players, upstream and downstream, may feel as if they have run a marathon.
Source: IEA
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Saturday, 07 December 19
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE DROPS SLIGHTLY - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price dropped slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge ...
Saturday, 07 December 19
SOUTH AFRICAN COAL PRICE SURGE, WHILE OTHERS LANGUISH, IS TROUBLING - REUTERS
Coal prices around the world are gently sliding as demand from top importers such as China, India and even Europe remains subdued amid a so far mil ...
Saturday, 07 December 19
SUPRAMAX: OVERALL, THE BALTIC SUPRAMAX INDEX REMAINED IN POSITIVE MODE, DESPITE SOME AREAS LACKING FRESH ACTIVITY - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
This week the Capesize market maintained healthy earnings, as an end of year surge took the Capesize 5TC back up to $25,202 by mid-wee ...
Friday, 06 December 19
INDONESIA COAL BENCHMARK PRICE FOR DECEMBER INCREASES BY US 3 CENTS MOM
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised up the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal co ...
Thursday, 05 December 19
IMO 2020 IS ABOUT TO GET REAL - GAVIN THOMPSON
As I write this edition of the APAC Energy Buzz from my desk in Singapore I can see ships. Lots of ships. No surprise given that Singapore is among ...
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- Minerals Council of Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
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