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Sunday, 20 January 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: A MARATHON, NOT A SPRINT - IEA
 Last month, we asked if there was a floor under prices following the signing of a new Vienna Agreement that aims to re-balance the oil market. Following an initial burst of enthusiasm for the deal, scepticism set in, alongside worries about the global economic background. Prices fell by $10/bbl with Brent crude oil bottoming out on 24 December at just above $50/bbl. For the producers, this was unwelcome, but for consumers it provided a nice present for the holidays. In the US Gulf Coast, gasoline prices in early January averaged $1.89/gal versus the summer peak of $2.79/gal and in India, prices are about 14% below the early October peak. Recently, leading producers have restated their commitment to cut output and data show that words were transformed into actions. In December, OPEC production fell by almost 600 kb/d and Saudi Arabia has signalled that, for its part, further significant cutbacks will take place in January and beyond.
The Brent price has moved back above $60/bbl, so the answer to our question posed last month seems to be a qualified yes, at least for now. However, the journey to a balanced market will take time, and is more likely to be a marathon than a sprint. While Saudi Arabia is determined to protect its price aspirations by delivering substantial production cuts, there is less clarity with regard to its Russian partner. Data show that Russia increased crude oil production in December to a new record near 11.5 mb/d and it is unclear when it will cut and by how much. Other non-OPEC countries joining in the output deal saw higher output, including Mexico.
Elsewhere, there are signs that market re-balancing will be gradual. The trajectory of Iran’s production and exports remains important. In December, total exports increased slightly to over 1.3 mb/d. With US waivers allowing Iran’s major customers to buy higher volumes than was previously thought, more oil will remain in the market in the early part of 2019. Venezuela has seen the collapse of its oil industry slow during the second half of 2018 with production falling recently by about 10 kb/d each month rather than by the 40 kb/d we saw earlier in the year. The level of output in the world’s biggest liquids producer, the United States, will once again be a major factor in 2019. We saw incredible and unexpected growth in total liquids production of 2.1 mb/d in 2018. For this year, we have left unchanged for now our forecast for growth of 1.3 mb/d. While the other two giants voluntarily cut output, the US, already the biggest liquids supplier, will reinforce its leadership as the world’s number one crude producer. By the middle of the year, US crude output will probably be more than the capacity of either Saudi Arabia or Russia.
For oil demand, there is a mixed picture. Falling prices in 4Q18 helped consumers and there are signs that trade tensions might be easing. In many developing countries, lower international oil prices coincide with a weaker dollar as the likelihood of higher US interest rates fades for now. However, the mood music in the global economy is not very cheerful. Confidence is weakening in several major economies. In the short term, there is added uncertainty about oil demand due to the onset of the northern hemisphere winter season, with low temperatures seen in the past few days in many places. For now, we retain our view that demand growth in 2018 was 1.3 mb/d, and this year it will be slightly higher at 1.4 mb/d, mainly due to average prices being below year-ago levels.
In the meantime, refiners face a challenging year. Processing capacity will increase by 2.6 mb/d, the biggest growth for four decades, while margins are already pressured by low gasoline cracks due to oversupply and weak demand. The well-trailed changes to the International Maritime Organisation’s marine fuel regulations due in 2020 are another big issue for some refiners as they seek to find outlets for unwanted high sulphur fuel oil. By the end of the year, all industry players, upstream and downstream, may feel as if they have run a marathon.
Source: IEA
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Monday, 16 December 19
THE OUTLOOK FOR U.S. THERMAL COAL IS INCREASINGLY STRESSED - MOODY'S
- Slowing global economic growth, trade tensions will continue to exert influence
- Coal's secular decline will persist in 2020
...
Thursday, 12 December 19
KOWEPO INVITING BIDS FOR 2.28 MILLION TONS OF MIN.4,400 NCV COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea’s Korea Western Power Co., Ltd. (KOWEPO) has issued an international tender for total 2,280,000 tons of (Sub) Bitum ...
Wednesday, 11 December 19
PANAMAX: THE MARKET REMAINED FIRM IN THE PACIFIC, WITH INCREASED ACTIVITY NOTED IN KEY AREAS, SUCH AS INDONESIA - ALLIED
Capesize – Positive momentum was resumed this past week, with earnings mak-ing some gains once again. This rising pattern was reflected in th ...
Tuesday, 10 December 19
PREPARATIONS INTENSIFY AS IMO 2020 GLOBAL SULPHUR CAP LOOMS - STANDARD CLUB
With less than a month to go for the impending IMO 2020 global sulphur cap, the club has started witnessing dispute cases relating to the measureme ...
Monday, 09 December 19
KOREA SOUTHERN POWER CO LTD IS INVITING OFFERS FOR MIN 3700 NCV COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea’s Korea East-West Power Co. Ltd has issued an international tender for 160,000 Tons steam coal.
Acco ...
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- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- The University of Queensland
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PTC India Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Planning Commission, India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
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