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Sunday, 20 January 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: A MARATHON, NOT A SPRINT - IEA
 Last month, we asked if there was a floor under prices following the signing of a new Vienna Agreement that aims to re-balance the oil market. Following an initial burst of enthusiasm for the deal, scepticism set in, alongside worries about the global economic background. Prices fell by $10/bbl with Brent crude oil bottoming out on 24 December at just above $50/bbl. For the producers, this was unwelcome, but for consumers it provided a nice present for the holidays. In the US Gulf Coast, gasoline prices in early January averaged $1.89/gal versus the summer peak of $2.79/gal and in India, prices are about 14% below the early October peak. Recently, leading producers have restated their commitment to cut output and data show that words were transformed into actions. In December, OPEC production fell by almost 600 kb/d and Saudi Arabia has signalled that, for its part, further significant cutbacks will take place in January and beyond.
The Brent price has moved back above $60/bbl, so the answer to our question posed last month seems to be a qualified yes, at least for now. However, the journey to a balanced market will take time, and is more likely to be a marathon than a sprint. While Saudi Arabia is determined to protect its price aspirations by delivering substantial production cuts, there is less clarity with regard to its Russian partner. Data show that Russia increased crude oil production in December to a new record near 11.5 mb/d and it is unclear when it will cut and by how much. Other non-OPEC countries joining in the output deal saw higher output, including Mexico.
Elsewhere, there are signs that market re-balancing will be gradual. The trajectory of Iran’s production and exports remains important. In December, total exports increased slightly to over 1.3 mb/d. With US waivers allowing Iran’s major customers to buy higher volumes than was previously thought, more oil will remain in the market in the early part of 2019. Venezuela has seen the collapse of its oil industry slow during the second half of 2018 with production falling recently by about 10 kb/d each month rather than by the 40 kb/d we saw earlier in the year. The level of output in the world’s biggest liquids producer, the United States, will once again be a major factor in 2019. We saw incredible and unexpected growth in total liquids production of 2.1 mb/d in 2018. For this year, we have left unchanged for now our forecast for growth of 1.3 mb/d. While the other two giants voluntarily cut output, the US, already the biggest liquids supplier, will reinforce its leadership as the world’s number one crude producer. By the middle of the year, US crude output will probably be more than the capacity of either Saudi Arabia or Russia.
For oil demand, there is a mixed picture. Falling prices in 4Q18 helped consumers and there are signs that trade tensions might be easing. In many developing countries, lower international oil prices coincide with a weaker dollar as the likelihood of higher US interest rates fades for now. However, the mood music in the global economy is not very cheerful. Confidence is weakening in several major economies. In the short term, there is added uncertainty about oil demand due to the onset of the northern hemisphere winter season, with low temperatures seen in the past few days in many places. For now, we retain our view that demand growth in 2018 was 1.3 mb/d, and this year it will be slightly higher at 1.4 mb/d, mainly due to average prices being below year-ago levels.
In the meantime, refiners face a challenging year. Processing capacity will increase by 2.6 mb/d, the biggest growth for four decades, while margins are already pressured by low gasoline cracks due to oversupply and weak demand. The well-trailed changes to the International Maritime Organisation’s marine fuel regulations due in 2020 are another big issue for some refiners as they seek to find outlets for unwanted high sulphur fuel oil. By the end of the year, all industry players, upstream and downstream, may feel as if they have run a marathon.
Source: IEA
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Tuesday, 17 December 19
AUSTRALIA ENERGY MARKET OPERATOR TURNS SCROOGE ON COAL LOBBY: RUSSELL
Australia, which vies with Indonesia for the title of the world’s largest coal exporter, is planning for an electricity future where use of t ...
Tuesday, 17 December 19
BACK TO FUTURE FOR BUSH AS AUSTRALIA CONSIDERS MOVING AWAY FROM COAL NEWCASTLE - HERALD
Looking backwards could show the way forward for regional communities planning for a future beyond mining.
One of Australia’s ...
Tuesday, 17 December 19
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX DOWN 0.01 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 133.16 points, down 0.01 percent week on week.
The index, released by China Taiy ...
Tuesday, 17 December 19
YEAR 2019: IT IS LOOKING SET THAT THIS YEAR WILL BE ONE OF THE SLOWEST IN TERMS OF DRY BULK NEWBUILDING ACTIVITY - ALLIED
With just two weeks remaining before 2019 comes to an end, it is now looking set that this year will be one of the slowest in terms of dry bulk new ...
Monday, 16 December 19
ULTRAMAX: A 63,000DWT SHIP FIXING DELIVERY FOR A SINGAPORE TRIP VIA INDONESIA, FOR RE-DELIVERY TO CHINA AT $11,000 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
It was one-way traffic for the Capesize market this past week, with all routes giving up value. While downward momentum may have slowe ...
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- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- PTC India Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
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