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Sunday, 20 January 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: A MARATHON, NOT A SPRINT - IEA
 Last month, we asked if there was a floor under prices following the signing of a new Vienna Agreement that aims to re-balance the oil market. Following an initial burst of enthusiasm for the deal, scepticism set in, alongside worries about the global economic background. Prices fell by $10/bbl with Brent crude oil bottoming out on 24 December at just above $50/bbl. For the producers, this was unwelcome, but for consumers it provided a nice present for the holidays. In the US Gulf Coast, gasoline prices in early January averaged $1.89/gal versus the summer peak of $2.79/gal and in India, prices are about 14% below the early October peak. Recently, leading producers have restated their commitment to cut output and data show that words were transformed into actions. In December, OPEC production fell by almost 600 kb/d and Saudi Arabia has signalled that, for its part, further significant cutbacks will take place in January and beyond.
The Brent price has moved back above $60/bbl, so the answer to our question posed last month seems to be a qualified yes, at least for now. However, the journey to a balanced market will take time, and is more likely to be a marathon than a sprint. While Saudi Arabia is determined to protect its price aspirations by delivering substantial production cuts, there is less clarity with regard to its Russian partner. Data show that Russia increased crude oil production in December to a new record near 11.5 mb/d and it is unclear when it will cut and by how much. Other non-OPEC countries joining in the output deal saw higher output, including Mexico.
Elsewhere, there are signs that market re-balancing will be gradual. The trajectory of Iran’s production and exports remains important. In December, total exports increased slightly to over 1.3 mb/d. With US waivers allowing Iran’s major customers to buy higher volumes than was previously thought, more oil will remain in the market in the early part of 2019. Venezuela has seen the collapse of its oil industry slow during the second half of 2018 with production falling recently by about 10 kb/d each month rather than by the 40 kb/d we saw earlier in the year. The level of output in the world’s biggest liquids producer, the United States, will once again be a major factor in 2019. We saw incredible and unexpected growth in total liquids production of 2.1 mb/d in 2018. For this year, we have left unchanged for now our forecast for growth of 1.3 mb/d. While the other two giants voluntarily cut output, the US, already the biggest liquids supplier, will reinforce its leadership as the world’s number one crude producer. By the middle of the year, US crude output will probably be more than the capacity of either Saudi Arabia or Russia.
For oil demand, there is a mixed picture. Falling prices in 4Q18 helped consumers and there are signs that trade tensions might be easing. In many developing countries, lower international oil prices coincide with a weaker dollar as the likelihood of higher US interest rates fades for now. However, the mood music in the global economy is not very cheerful. Confidence is weakening in several major economies. In the short term, there is added uncertainty about oil demand due to the onset of the northern hemisphere winter season, with low temperatures seen in the past few days in many places. For now, we retain our view that demand growth in 2018 was 1.3 mb/d, and this year it will be slightly higher at 1.4 mb/d, mainly due to average prices being below year-ago levels.
In the meantime, refiners face a challenging year. Processing capacity will increase by 2.6 mb/d, the biggest growth for four decades, while margins are already pressured by low gasoline cracks due to oversupply and weak demand. The well-trailed changes to the International Maritime Organisation’s marine fuel regulations due in 2020 are another big issue for some refiners as they seek to find outlets for unwanted high sulphur fuel oil. By the end of the year, all industry players, upstream and downstream, may feel as if they have run a marathon.
Source: IEA
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Monday, 02 December 19
OPEC PREPS FOR OIL'S 2020 BALANCING ACT - WOOD MACKENZIE
What steps should OPEC and its non-OPEC partners take to keep the market in balance in 2020? Ahead of OPEC’s meeting in Vienna on 5 and 6 Dec ...
Monday, 02 December 19
GREENER LNG IS VITAL TO ASIA'S SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT - WOOD MACKENZIE
Asia struggles with the world’s worst air pollution. Delhi hit the headlines in November 2019 as levels spiked to such hazardous levels that ...
Monday, 02 December 19
5TH EAST & SOUTHERN AFRICA GAS & LNG CONFERENCE 2020
5th East & Southern Africa Gas & LNG Conference 2020
April 2-3
Maputo, Mozambique
5th East & Southern Afri ...
Monday, 02 December 19
5TH DEEPWATER EAST & SOUTHERN AFRICA CONGRESS 2020
5th Deepwater East & Southern Africa Congress 2020
April 2-3
Maputo, Mozambique
5th Deepwater East & Southern ...
Sunday, 01 December 19
6TH CENTRAL & EASTERN EUROPE NUCLEAR INDUSTRY CONGRESS 2020
6th Central & Eastern Europe Nuclear Industry Congress 2020
January 20-21 | Prague, Czech Republic
Overview
6th ...
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- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- VISA Power Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- The University of Queensland
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- White Energy Company Limited
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
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