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Sunday, 20 January 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: A MARATHON, NOT A SPRINT - IEA
 Last month, we asked if there was a floor under prices following the signing of a new Vienna Agreement that aims to re-balance the oil market. Following an initial burst of enthusiasm for the deal, scepticism set in, alongside worries about the global economic background. Prices fell by $10/bbl with Brent crude oil bottoming out on 24 December at just above $50/bbl. For the producers, this was unwelcome, but for consumers it provided a nice present for the holidays. In the US Gulf Coast, gasoline prices in early January averaged $1.89/gal versus the summer peak of $2.79/gal and in India, prices are about 14% below the early October peak. Recently, leading producers have restated their commitment to cut output and data show that words were transformed into actions. In December, OPEC production fell by almost 600 kb/d and Saudi Arabia has signalled that, for its part, further significant cutbacks will take place in January and beyond.
The Brent price has moved back above $60/bbl, so the answer to our question posed last month seems to be a qualified yes, at least for now. However, the journey to a balanced market will take time, and is more likely to be a marathon than a sprint. While Saudi Arabia is determined to protect its price aspirations by delivering substantial production cuts, there is less clarity with regard to its Russian partner. Data show that Russia increased crude oil production in December to a new record near 11.5 mb/d and it is unclear when it will cut and by how much. Other non-OPEC countries joining in the output deal saw higher output, including Mexico.
Elsewhere, there are signs that market re-balancing will be gradual. The trajectory of Iran’s production and exports remains important. In December, total exports increased slightly to over 1.3 mb/d. With US waivers allowing Iran’s major customers to buy higher volumes than was previously thought, more oil will remain in the market in the early part of 2019. Venezuela has seen the collapse of its oil industry slow during the second half of 2018 with production falling recently by about 10 kb/d each month rather than by the 40 kb/d we saw earlier in the year. The level of output in the world’s biggest liquids producer, the United States, will once again be a major factor in 2019. We saw incredible and unexpected growth in total liquids production of 2.1 mb/d in 2018. For this year, we have left unchanged for now our forecast for growth of 1.3 mb/d. While the other two giants voluntarily cut output, the US, already the biggest liquids supplier, will reinforce its leadership as the world’s number one crude producer. By the middle of the year, US crude output will probably be more than the capacity of either Saudi Arabia or Russia.
For oil demand, there is a mixed picture. Falling prices in 4Q18 helped consumers and there are signs that trade tensions might be easing. In many developing countries, lower international oil prices coincide with a weaker dollar as the likelihood of higher US interest rates fades for now. However, the mood music in the global economy is not very cheerful. Confidence is weakening in several major economies. In the short term, there is added uncertainty about oil demand due to the onset of the northern hemisphere winter season, with low temperatures seen in the past few days in many places. For now, we retain our view that demand growth in 2018 was 1.3 mb/d, and this year it will be slightly higher at 1.4 mb/d, mainly due to average prices being below year-ago levels.
In the meantime, refiners face a challenging year. Processing capacity will increase by 2.6 mb/d, the biggest growth for four decades, while margins are already pressured by low gasoline cracks due to oversupply and weak demand. The well-trailed changes to the International Maritime Organisation’s marine fuel regulations due in 2020 are another big issue for some refiners as they seek to find outlets for unwanted high sulphur fuel oil. By the end of the year, all industry players, upstream and downstream, may feel as if they have run a marathon.
Source: IEA
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Wednesday, 04 December 19
FITCH RATINGS: CASH FLOW GENERATION TO SLOW DOWN FOR INDONESIAN COAL MINERS
Fitch Ratings' negative outlook on the Indonesian coal-mining sector reflects our view of weaker cash flow generation on account of declining c ...
Wednesday, 04 December 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Dry bulk freight rates rebounded last week, a development that came as a relief following the recent negative sentiment that prevailed in the marke ...
Wednesday, 04 December 19
INDONESIA REVIEWING RULES MANDATING COAL SALES TO LOCAL BUYERS: OFFICIAL - REUTERS
Indonesia is reviewing rules that require coal miners to sell a portion of their coal to local buyers, a government official said on Monday, as sup ...
Tuesday, 03 December 19
STABILITY AND COMPATIBILITY OF VERY LOW SULPHUR FUEL OILS - GARD
In order to meet increasing restrictions on the sulphur content in marine fuel as defined by MARPOL Annex VI Regulation 14.1.3, the characteristics ...
Monday, 02 December 19
COAL PRODUCTION IN INDIA UP BY 164.58 MT IN 5 YEARS - BUSINESS LINE
Raw coal production in the country has increased from 567.77 million tons (MT) in 2013-14 to 730.35 MT in 2018-19, Union Coal and Parliamentary Aff ...
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- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Planning Commission, India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Australian Coal Association
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- VISA Power Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Minerals Council of Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
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