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Wednesday, 09 January 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INERMODAL
 Paraphrasing the words of a Chief economist in a latest report of the World Bank Group, the current state of the shipping market very much resembles that of a ship sailing, for the past decade, in shallow and tidy waters trying to avoid groundings. It was caught on a grounding two years ago, but is now freed by the rising tide. The Captain is of course relieved to be able to set sail. But this relief must be tempered by the urgency to sail toward deeper seas before the receding waters beach the ship again.
Until the mid of 2018, all the forecasts for 2018 and 2019 reflected optimism. More than half of the world's countries were experiencing growth. There was a synchronized recovery resulting in faster and stronger growth in the near term. Unemployment has declined in USA, Europe and Japan, whilst inflation has not picked up, finding a point of golden balance. However, as the report from WBG points out, the medium term prospects tell a different story. Trade wars may be devastating and the protectionist threats have already cast their spell on the world's growth, with uncertainty killing investment. Obviously this is also directly affecting the shipping market; adding on top of this the 2020 Sulphur cap regulations and untested solutions, the future of coal and the additional capex for WBT the result is more uncertainty, which makes shipping professionals more reluctant.
Downside risks to global growth have risen in the past eight months and expectations for upside surprises have receded. Global growth downward revision during 2018 reflects events that suppressed activity in some major advanced economies, the negative effects of the trade threats and measures already implemented or approved, as well as a weaker outlook for some key emerging market and developing economies arising from country-specific factors, geopolitical tensions, and higher oil import bills.
On the ship supply side (>20,000dwt), the dry bulk fleet grew by 200 vessels in absolute terms since last year. Whilst 2018 will be remembered for the very few bulk carrier deliveries - from the 400 bulk carriers that were planned to be delivered in 2018 just 268 ships were delivered - there was also very low scrapping activity, just fifty bulk carriers were sold for demolition. For 2019 it is projected that shipbuilders will deliver about another 530 vessels. The orderbook has increased by about 200 vessels since the same time last year but if we go back another few years it is much smaller and appears much more reasonable. Compared to the existing fleet, new building orders are 7% for the Handysize, 6% for the Supramax and 10% for the Panamax/Kamsarmax sector and the Capesize sector is 11%.
The trade growth, i.e. demand for seaborne trade, in 2019 and 2020 and the fleet utilization will judge the fate of a lot of the older tonnage and whether the market is good enough to support additional investment (WBT) or not, in which case they will have to make way for the younger ones. Oil prices and the efficiency of each vessel will play a huge role on investment decisions. So, once again, we are approaching 2020 with uncertainty and volatility on both the demand and the supply side. 2019 is going to be interesting...
Happy New Year to All.
By Theodoros Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 11 December 18
PORT OF NEWCASTLE SHIPPED 10.849 MMT OF COAL IN NOVEMBER DOWN 23.44 PERCENT MOM
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading port and the world’s largest coal export port has shipped A$ 1,574.8 mil ...
Thursday, 06 December 18
IN THE EAST, BIGGER SUPRA WAS FIXED CA US$ 10K FOR INDO-CHINA COAL ROUND - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
There is cautious optimism for the Capes, with healthier volumes and improving rates in the Pacific. West Australia round is gradually ...
Thursday, 06 December 18
U.S. COAL CONSUMPTION IN 2018 EXPECTED TO BE THE LOWEST IN 39 YEARS - EIA
EIA expects total U.S. coal consumption in 2018 to fall to 691 million short tons (MMst), a 4% decline from 2017 and the lowest level since 1979. U ...
Thursday, 06 December 18
DEMAND RISKS WEIGH ON GLOBAL SHIPPING SECTOR OUTLOOK - FITCH RATINGS
The global shipping sector outlook remains negative reflecting the demand-side risks of protectionism and slower economic growth, Fitch Ratings say ...
Thursday, 06 December 18
CHINA REVISES MANAGEMENT RULES ON ESTABLISHMENT OF FULLY FOREIGN-OWNED SHIPPING BUSINESSES - XINHUA
Foreign shipping companies will find it easier to establish wholly-owned subsidiaries in China thanks to a revised regulation due to take effect on ...
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- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Minerals Council of Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
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