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Wednesday, 09 January 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INERMODAL
 Paraphrasing the words of a Chief economist in a latest report of the World Bank Group, the current state of the shipping market very much resembles that of a ship sailing, for the past decade, in shallow and tidy waters trying to avoid groundings. It was caught on a grounding two years ago, but is now freed by the rising tide. The Captain is of course relieved to be able to set sail. But this relief must be tempered by the urgency to sail toward deeper seas before the receding waters beach the ship again.
Until the mid of 2018, all the forecasts for 2018 and 2019 reflected optimism. More than half of the world's countries were experiencing growth. There was a synchronized recovery resulting in faster and stronger growth in the near term. Unemployment has declined in USA, Europe and Japan, whilst inflation has not picked up, finding a point of golden balance. However, as the report from WBG points out, the medium term prospects tell a different story. Trade wars may be devastating and the protectionist threats have already cast their spell on the world's growth, with uncertainty killing investment. Obviously this is also directly affecting the shipping market; adding on top of this the 2020 Sulphur cap regulations and untested solutions, the future of coal and the additional capex for WBT the result is more uncertainty, which makes shipping professionals more reluctant.
Downside risks to global growth have risen in the past eight months and expectations for upside surprises have receded. Global growth downward revision during 2018 reflects events that suppressed activity in some major advanced economies, the negative effects of the trade threats and measures already implemented or approved, as well as a weaker outlook for some key emerging market and developing economies arising from country-specific factors, geopolitical tensions, and higher oil import bills.
On the ship supply side (>20,000dwt), the dry bulk fleet grew by 200 vessels in absolute terms since last year. Whilst 2018 will be remembered for the very few bulk carrier deliveries - from the 400 bulk carriers that were planned to be delivered in 2018 just 268 ships were delivered - there was also very low scrapping activity, just fifty bulk carriers were sold for demolition. For 2019 it is projected that shipbuilders will deliver about another 530 vessels. The orderbook has increased by about 200 vessels since the same time last year but if we go back another few years it is much smaller and appears much more reasonable. Compared to the existing fleet, new building orders are 7% for the Handysize, 6% for the Supramax and 10% for the Panamax/Kamsarmax sector and the Capesize sector is 11%.
The trade growth, i.e. demand for seaborne trade, in 2019 and 2020 and the fleet utilization will judge the fate of a lot of the older tonnage and whether the market is good enough to support additional investment (WBT) or not, in which case they will have to make way for the younger ones. Oil prices and the efficiency of each vessel will play a huge role on investment decisions. So, once again, we are approaching 2020 with uncertainty and volatility on both the demand and the supply side. 2019 is going to be interesting...
Happy New Year to All.
By Theodoros Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 14 December 18
KOSPO INVITES BIDS FOR 1,177,000 METRIC TONS OF COAL FOR Q1' 19 LOADING
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 701,000 MT of min 5,600 kcal/kg NCV coal and ...
Friday, 14 December 18
COAL IMPORT TO BE CHECKED BY RISING DOMESTIC PRODUCTION - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
The government’s effort to increase domestic coal production and power demand falling with the onset of the winters will check coal imports, ...
Thursday, 13 December 18
STRAITS AFFECTED BY TERRITORIAL DISPUTE BETWEEN SINGAPORE AND MALAYSIA - THE STANDARD CLUB
A recent territorial dispute has occurred between Singapore and Malaysia involving the Straits of Johor.
The Malaysian Attorney Gene ...
Wednesday, 12 December 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - CHRISTOPHER WHITTY
China’s monthly iron ore imports dropped for the first time this year joined by declines in copper and soybeans as economic growth slows in t ...
Tuesday, 11 December 18
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED
A lot of discussions have been made as to the effects of the IMO 2020 regulation on OPEX levels, investment feasibility of& ...
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- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Australian Coal Association
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- The University of Queensland
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
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