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Wednesday, 09 January 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INERMODAL
 Paraphrasing the words of a Chief economist in a latest report of the World Bank Group, the current state of the shipping market very much resembles that of a ship sailing, for the past decade, in shallow and tidy waters trying to avoid groundings. It was caught on a grounding two years ago, but is now freed by the rising tide. The Captain is of course relieved to be able to set sail. But this relief must be tempered by the urgency to sail toward deeper seas before the receding waters beach the ship again.
Until the mid of 2018, all the forecasts for 2018 and 2019 reflected optimism. More than half of the world's countries were experiencing growth. There was a synchronized recovery resulting in faster and stronger growth in the near term. Unemployment has declined in USA, Europe and Japan, whilst inflation has not picked up, finding a point of golden balance. However, as the report from WBG points out, the medium term prospects tell a different story. Trade wars may be devastating and the protectionist threats have already cast their spell on the world's growth, with uncertainty killing investment. Obviously this is also directly affecting the shipping market; adding on top of this the 2020 Sulphur cap regulations and untested solutions, the future of coal and the additional capex for WBT the result is more uncertainty, which makes shipping professionals more reluctant.
Downside risks to global growth have risen in the past eight months and expectations for upside surprises have receded. Global growth downward revision during 2018 reflects events that suppressed activity in some major advanced economies, the negative effects of the trade threats and measures already implemented or approved, as well as a weaker outlook for some key emerging market and developing economies arising from country-specific factors, geopolitical tensions, and higher oil import bills.
On the ship supply side (>20,000dwt), the dry bulk fleet grew by 200 vessels in absolute terms since last year. Whilst 2018 will be remembered for the very few bulk carrier deliveries - from the 400 bulk carriers that were planned to be delivered in 2018 just 268 ships were delivered - there was also very low scrapping activity, just fifty bulk carriers were sold for demolition. For 2019 it is projected that shipbuilders will deliver about another 530 vessels. The orderbook has increased by about 200 vessels since the same time last year but if we go back another few years it is much smaller and appears much more reasonable. Compared to the existing fleet, new building orders are 7% for the Handysize, 6% for the Supramax and 10% for the Panamax/Kamsarmax sector and the Capesize sector is 11%.
The trade growth, i.e. demand for seaborne trade, in 2019 and 2020 and the fleet utilization will judge the fate of a lot of the older tonnage and whether the market is good enough to support additional investment (WBT) or not, in which case they will have to make way for the younger ones. Oil prices and the efficiency of each vessel will play a huge role on investment decisions. So, once again, we are approaching 2020 with uncertainty and volatility on both the demand and the supply side. 2019 is going to be interesting...
Happy New Year to All.
By Theodoros Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Friday, 30 November 18
GOVT MULLS REQUIRING MINERS TO TURN COAL INTO GAS - THE JAKARTA POST
The government is considering requiring all coal miners to turn the raw commodity into dimethylether (DME) as a substitute for liquefied petroleum ...
Friday, 30 November 18
SUPRAMAX: N. CHINA TO INDIA OR SE ASIA SUPRAS ARE GETTING PAID AROUND US$ 6000 - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
Sharp rise in spot activity and income, admittedly from very low levels, for the big ships. West Australia/China and Brazil/Far East b ...
Thursday, 29 November 18
NEW IMSBC CODE REQUIREMENTS AIM TO CONTROL LIQUEFACTION OF COAL CARGOES - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The International Maritime Solid Bulk Cargoes (IMSBC) Code describes coal as a natural, solid, combustible material consi ...
Wednesday, 28 November 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE LAIOS
Last week I had the privilege to attend the SingularityU Greece Summit, in Athens. It was a privilege because you do not often have the chance to s ...
Tuesday, 27 November 18
PANAMAX AND SUPRAMAX INDICES WITNESSED A DECLINE OF JUST BELOW 14% IN THEIR MEAN ON A MONTH-ON-MONTH COMPARISON - ALLIED SHIPPING
A month of sharp corrections and great asymmetries for the dry bulk sector, with the overall overview of the market shipping rapidly from a state o ...
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- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- White Energy Company Limited
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Australian Coal Association
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
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