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Wednesday, 09 January 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INERMODAL
 Paraphrasing the words of a Chief economist in a latest report of the World Bank Group, the current state of the shipping market very much resembles that of a ship sailing, for the past decade, in shallow and tidy waters trying to avoid groundings. It was caught on a grounding two years ago, but is now freed by the rising tide. The Captain is of course relieved to be able to set sail. But this relief must be tempered by the urgency to sail toward deeper seas before the receding waters beach the ship again.
Until the mid of 2018, all the forecasts for 2018 and 2019 reflected optimism. More than half of the world's countries were experiencing growth. There was a synchronized recovery resulting in faster and stronger growth in the near term. Unemployment has declined in USA, Europe and Japan, whilst inflation has not picked up, finding a point of golden balance. However, as the report from WBG points out, the medium term prospects tell a different story. Trade wars may be devastating and the protectionist threats have already cast their spell on the world's growth, with uncertainty killing investment. Obviously this is also directly affecting the shipping market; adding on top of this the 2020 Sulphur cap regulations and untested solutions, the future of coal and the additional capex for WBT the result is more uncertainty, which makes shipping professionals more reluctant.
Downside risks to global growth have risen in the past eight months and expectations for upside surprises have receded. Global growth downward revision during 2018 reflects events that suppressed activity in some major advanced economies, the negative effects of the trade threats and measures already implemented or approved, as well as a weaker outlook for some key emerging market and developing economies arising from country-specific factors, geopolitical tensions, and higher oil import bills.
On the ship supply side (>20,000dwt), the dry bulk fleet grew by 200 vessels in absolute terms since last year. Whilst 2018 will be remembered for the very few bulk carrier deliveries - from the 400 bulk carriers that were planned to be delivered in 2018 just 268 ships were delivered - there was also very low scrapping activity, just fifty bulk carriers were sold for demolition. For 2019 it is projected that shipbuilders will deliver about another 530 vessels. The orderbook has increased by about 200 vessels since the same time last year but if we go back another few years it is much smaller and appears much more reasonable. Compared to the existing fleet, new building orders are 7% for the Handysize, 6% for the Supramax and 10% for the Panamax/Kamsarmax sector and the Capesize sector is 11%.
The trade growth, i.e. demand for seaborne trade, in 2019 and 2020 and the fleet utilization will judge the fate of a lot of the older tonnage and whether the market is good enough to support additional investment (WBT) or not, in which case they will have to make way for the younger ones. Oil prices and the efficiency of each vessel will play a huge role on investment decisions. So, once again, we are approaching 2020 with uncertainty and volatility on both the demand and the supply side. 2019 is going to be interesting...
Happy New Year to All.
By Theodoros Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 05 December 18
WORLD COAL PRICES FALL, WITH INDONESIA BENCHMARK FOR DECEMBER, ENDING AT LOWEST SINCE JUNE 2018
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal ...
Wednesday, 05 December 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - GIANNIS ANDRITSOPOULOS
Is the rise in crude carrier rates driven only by seasonality, or is the recent positive reversal signaling the end of challenging days for the mar ...
Monday, 03 December 18
WCA'S ENGAGEMENT AT COP24 IN KATOWICE - WCA
The 24th Conference of the Parties (COP) to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) will take place from the 2-14 December 2018 in K ...
Monday, 03 December 18
SUPRAMAX: FIXED DELIVERY KALIMANTAN TO WEST COAST INDIA, AT $11000 - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A roller-coaster week for the big ships with hopes soaring at the start for a mini last quarter revival, only to be dashed as the week ...
Sunday, 02 December 18
TRADE WAR LEADING TO HEADWINDS FOR THE FRAGILE DRY BULK RECOVERY - PETER SAND, BIMCO
The first twelve weeks of the 2018/19 marketing year, which started on 1 September 2018, have painted a dire picture for US soya bean exports which ...
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- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- White Energy Company Limited
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
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