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Wednesday, 09 January 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INERMODAL
 Paraphrasing the words of a Chief economist in a latest report of the World Bank Group, the current state of the shipping market very much resembles that of a ship sailing, for the past decade, in shallow and tidy waters trying to avoid groundings. It was caught on a grounding two years ago, but is now freed by the rising tide. The Captain is of course relieved to be able to set sail. But this relief must be tempered by the urgency to sail toward deeper seas before the receding waters beach the ship again.
Until the mid of 2018, all the forecasts for 2018 and 2019 reflected optimism. More than half of the world's countries were experiencing growth. There was a synchronized recovery resulting in faster and stronger growth in the near term. Unemployment has declined in USA, Europe and Japan, whilst inflation has not picked up, finding a point of golden balance. However, as the report from WBG points out, the medium term prospects tell a different story. Trade wars may be devastating and the protectionist threats have already cast their spell on the world's growth, with uncertainty killing investment. Obviously this is also directly affecting the shipping market; adding on top of this the 2020 Sulphur cap regulations and untested solutions, the future of coal and the additional capex for WBT the result is more uncertainty, which makes shipping professionals more reluctant.
Downside risks to global growth have risen in the past eight months and expectations for upside surprises have receded. Global growth downward revision during 2018 reflects events that suppressed activity in some major advanced economies, the negative effects of the trade threats and measures already implemented or approved, as well as a weaker outlook for some key emerging market and developing economies arising from country-specific factors, geopolitical tensions, and higher oil import bills.
On the ship supply side (>20,000dwt), the dry bulk fleet grew by 200 vessels in absolute terms since last year. Whilst 2018 will be remembered for the very few bulk carrier deliveries - from the 400 bulk carriers that were planned to be delivered in 2018 just 268 ships were delivered - there was also very low scrapping activity, just fifty bulk carriers were sold for demolition. For 2019 it is projected that shipbuilders will deliver about another 530 vessels. The orderbook has increased by about 200 vessels since the same time last year but if we go back another few years it is much smaller and appears much more reasonable. Compared to the existing fleet, new building orders are 7% for the Handysize, 6% for the Supramax and 10% for the Panamax/Kamsarmax sector and the Capesize sector is 11%.
The trade growth, i.e. demand for seaborne trade, in 2019 and 2020 and the fleet utilization will judge the fate of a lot of the older tonnage and whether the market is good enough to support additional investment (WBT) or not, in which case they will have to make way for the younger ones. Oil prices and the efficiency of each vessel will play a huge role on investment decisions. So, once again, we are approaching 2020 with uncertainty and volatility on both the demand and the supply side. 2019 is going to be interesting...
Happy New Year to All.
By Theodoros Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Tuesday, 18 December 18
TOBA BARA ACQUIRES SHARES OF PT BATU HITAM PERKASA
PT Toba Bara Sejahtra Tbk, through its subsidiary PT Toba Bara Energi (“TBE”), has acquired shares ...
Monday, 17 December 18
SUPRAMAX THERE WAS STRONGER DEMAND FROM SOUTHEAST ASIA, WITH MORE COAL BEING SHIPPED - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A positive end to last week after a somewhat uncertain start as some gains made were eroded. Rates recovered later for West Australia/ ...
Monday, 17 December 18
SOUTH KOREA STATE-OWNED UTILITY KOREA EAST-WEST POWER CO. LTD ISSUED A TENDER FOR MAX 3.220 MILLION TONS OF 4200 TO 5900 NAR COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea East-West Power Co. Ltd (EWP) issued a tender for max 3,220,000 Metric Tons of coal to be loade ...
Saturday, 15 December 18
COMING CHANGES IN MARINE FUEL SULFUR LIMITS WILL AFFECT GLOBAL OIL MARKETS - EIA
International regulations limiting sulfur in fuels for ocean-going vessels, set to take effect in January 2020, have implications for vessel operat ...
Friday, 14 December 18
KOSPO INVITED BIDS FOR 320,000 MT OF LOW CALORIFIC VALUE COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 320,000 MT of min 4,300 kcal/kg NCV coal per ...
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- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Australian Coal Association
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Planning Commission, India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
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