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Wednesday, 09 January 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INERMODAL
 Paraphrasing the words of a Chief economist in a latest report of the World Bank Group, the current state of the shipping market very much resembles that of a ship sailing, for the past decade, in shallow and tidy waters trying to avoid groundings. It was caught on a grounding two years ago, but is now freed by the rising tide. The Captain is of course relieved to be able to set sail. But this relief must be tempered by the urgency to sail toward deeper seas before the receding waters beach the ship again.
Until the mid of 2018, all the forecasts for 2018 and 2019 reflected optimism. More than half of the world's countries were experiencing growth. There was a synchronized recovery resulting in faster and stronger growth in the near term. Unemployment has declined in USA, Europe and Japan, whilst inflation has not picked up, finding a point of golden balance. However, as the report from WBG points out, the medium term prospects tell a different story. Trade wars may be devastating and the protectionist threats have already cast their spell on the world's growth, with uncertainty killing investment. Obviously this is also directly affecting the shipping market; adding on top of this the 2020 Sulphur cap regulations and untested solutions, the future of coal and the additional capex for WBT the result is more uncertainty, which makes shipping professionals more reluctant.
Downside risks to global growth have risen in the past eight months and expectations for upside surprises have receded. Global growth downward revision during 2018 reflects events that suppressed activity in some major advanced economies, the negative effects of the trade threats and measures already implemented or approved, as well as a weaker outlook for some key emerging market and developing economies arising from country-specific factors, geopolitical tensions, and higher oil import bills.
On the ship supply side (>20,000dwt), the dry bulk fleet grew by 200 vessels in absolute terms since last year. Whilst 2018 will be remembered for the very few bulk carrier deliveries - from the 400 bulk carriers that were planned to be delivered in 2018 just 268 ships were delivered - there was also very low scrapping activity, just fifty bulk carriers were sold for demolition. For 2019 it is projected that shipbuilders will deliver about another 530 vessels. The orderbook has increased by about 200 vessels since the same time last year but if we go back another few years it is much smaller and appears much more reasonable. Compared to the existing fleet, new building orders are 7% for the Handysize, 6% for the Supramax and 10% for the Panamax/Kamsarmax sector and the Capesize sector is 11%.
The trade growth, i.e. demand for seaborne trade, in 2019 and 2020 and the fleet utilization will judge the fate of a lot of the older tonnage and whether the market is good enough to support additional investment (WBT) or not, in which case they will have to make way for the younger ones. Oil prices and the efficiency of each vessel will play a huge role on investment decisions. So, once again, we are approaching 2020 with uncertainty and volatility on both the demand and the supply side. 2019 is going to be interesting...
Happy New Year to All.
By Theodoros Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 11 January 19
SUPRAMAX: THE ASIAN ARENA HAD A MIXED START; LIMITED ACTION IN SOUTHEAST ASIA - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Dashed hopes summed up the first full week of the New Year. A slow start followed by a busy 24 hours of improving rates and a firming ...
Thursday, 10 January 19
BUNKER DELIVERY NOTE AMENDMENTS ENTER INTO FORCE AS SULPHUR 2020 REQUIREMENT LOOMS - IMO
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Amendments to the bunker delivery note relating to the supply of marine fuel oil to ships which have fitted alternative m ...
Thursday, 10 January 19
WORLD TRADE IN THERMAL COAL IS ESTIMATED TO HAVE GROWN BY 1.0 PER CENT IN 2018 - DEPARTMENT OF INDUSTRY, AUSTRALIA
World Trade
World trade in thermal coal is estimated to have grown by 1.0 per cent to 1.1 billion tonnes in 2018 but it is expected to decline ...
Thursday, 10 January 19
PAKISTAN'S COAL IMPORTS TO SURGE TO 30 MILLION TONS PER ANNUM BY 2020 - CEO, PIB
Pakistan’s coal imports are estimated to surge to 30 million tons/annum from existing 20 million tons/annum by the year 2020, given the plann ...
Wednesday, 09 January 19
PANAMAX: THE PACIFIC SAW RELATIVELY GOOD DEMAND PARTICULARLY FROM INDONESIA AND NOPAC - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
It was an active start to the New Year, with trading from West Australia maintaining momentum during the holiday period. Rates for Chi ...
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- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- The University of Queensland
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- PTC India Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
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