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Wednesday, 09 January 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INERMODAL
 Paraphrasing the words of a Chief economist in a latest report of the World Bank Group, the current state of the shipping market very much resembles that of a ship sailing, for the past decade, in shallow and tidy waters trying to avoid groundings. It was caught on a grounding two years ago, but is now freed by the rising tide. The Captain is of course relieved to be able to set sail. But this relief must be tempered by the urgency to sail toward deeper seas before the receding waters beach the ship again.
Until the mid of 2018, all the forecasts for 2018 and 2019 reflected optimism. More than half of the world's countries were experiencing growth. There was a synchronized recovery resulting in faster and stronger growth in the near term. Unemployment has declined in USA, Europe and Japan, whilst inflation has not picked up, finding a point of golden balance. However, as the report from WBG points out, the medium term prospects tell a different story. Trade wars may be devastating and the protectionist threats have already cast their spell on the world's growth, with uncertainty killing investment. Obviously this is also directly affecting the shipping market; adding on top of this the 2020 Sulphur cap regulations and untested solutions, the future of coal and the additional capex for WBT the result is more uncertainty, which makes shipping professionals more reluctant.
Downside risks to global growth have risen in the past eight months and expectations for upside surprises have receded. Global growth downward revision during 2018 reflects events that suppressed activity in some major advanced economies, the negative effects of the trade threats and measures already implemented or approved, as well as a weaker outlook for some key emerging market and developing economies arising from country-specific factors, geopolitical tensions, and higher oil import bills.
On the ship supply side (>20,000dwt), the dry bulk fleet grew by 200 vessels in absolute terms since last year. Whilst 2018 will be remembered for the very few bulk carrier deliveries - from the 400 bulk carriers that were planned to be delivered in 2018 just 268 ships were delivered - there was also very low scrapping activity, just fifty bulk carriers were sold for demolition. For 2019 it is projected that shipbuilders will deliver about another 530 vessels. The orderbook has increased by about 200 vessels since the same time last year but if we go back another few years it is much smaller and appears much more reasonable. Compared to the existing fleet, new building orders are 7% for the Handysize, 6% for the Supramax and 10% for the Panamax/Kamsarmax sector and the Capesize sector is 11%.
The trade growth, i.e. demand for seaborne trade, in 2019 and 2020 and the fleet utilization will judge the fate of a lot of the older tonnage and whether the market is good enough to support additional investment (WBT) or not, in which case they will have to make way for the younger ones. Oil prices and the efficiency of each vessel will play a huge role on investment decisions. So, once again, we are approaching 2020 with uncertainty and volatility on both the demand and the supply side. 2019 is going to be interesting...
Happy New Year to All.
By Theodoros Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Tuesday, 08 January 19
GLOBAL TRADE GROWTH EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT HEALTHY IN 2019 - ALLIED
2019 is here and we find ourselves with new challenges for the shipping industry and the global economy as whole, with market prospects being neith ...
Monday, 07 January 19
THE NEWCASTLE BENCHMARK SPOT PRICE IS FORECAST TO DECLINE FROM AN ESTIMATED AVERAGE OF US$105 A TONNE IN 2018 TO US$74 A TONNE IN 2020 - DEPARTMENT OF INDUSTRY, AUSTRALIA
• The Newcastle benchmark spot price is forecast to decline from an estimated average of US$105 a tonne in 2018 to US$74 a tonne in 2020, prim ...
Monday, 07 January 19
INDONESIAN GOVERNMENT DECLARED COAL BENCHMARK PRICE FALLS FOR FIFTH STRAIGHT MONTH IN JANUARY 2019; LOWEST SINCE JUNE 2018
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down again the benchmark price of Indonesian th ...
Monday, 07 January 19
RUSSIA'S COAL PRODUCTION UP 5.9% TO 433.4 MLN TONNES IN 2018 - TASS
Coal production in Russia in 2018 increased by 5.9% year-on-year to 433.4 mln tonnes, according to the Central Dispatching Department of Fuel Energ ...
Friday, 04 January 19
FOCUS IS ON BOOSTING COAL PRODUCTION: INDIAN COAL MINISTER
The current focus of the government is on boosting production from operational coal mines, according to Minister for Coal, Piyush Goyal.
...
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- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Planning Commission, India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
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