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Wednesday, 09 January 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INERMODAL
 Paraphrasing the words of a Chief economist in a latest report of the World Bank Group, the current state of the shipping market very much resembles that of a ship sailing, for the past decade, in shallow and tidy waters trying to avoid groundings. It was caught on a grounding two years ago, but is now freed by the rising tide. The Captain is of course relieved to be able to set sail. But this relief must be tempered by the urgency to sail toward deeper seas before the receding waters beach the ship again.
Until the mid of 2018, all the forecasts for 2018 and 2019 reflected optimism. More than half of the world's countries were experiencing growth. There was a synchronized recovery resulting in faster and stronger growth in the near term. Unemployment has declined in USA, Europe and Japan, whilst inflation has not picked up, finding a point of golden balance. However, as the report from WBG points out, the medium term prospects tell a different story. Trade wars may be devastating and the protectionist threats have already cast their spell on the world's growth, with uncertainty killing investment. Obviously this is also directly affecting the shipping market; adding on top of this the 2020 Sulphur cap regulations and untested solutions, the future of coal and the additional capex for WBT the result is more uncertainty, which makes shipping professionals more reluctant.
Downside risks to global growth have risen in the past eight months and expectations for upside surprises have receded. Global growth downward revision during 2018 reflects events that suppressed activity in some major advanced economies, the negative effects of the trade threats and measures already implemented or approved, as well as a weaker outlook for some key emerging market and developing economies arising from country-specific factors, geopolitical tensions, and higher oil import bills.
On the ship supply side (>20,000dwt), the dry bulk fleet grew by 200 vessels in absolute terms since last year. Whilst 2018 will be remembered for the very few bulk carrier deliveries - from the 400 bulk carriers that were planned to be delivered in 2018 just 268 ships were delivered - there was also very low scrapping activity, just fifty bulk carriers were sold for demolition. For 2019 it is projected that shipbuilders will deliver about another 530 vessels. The orderbook has increased by about 200 vessels since the same time last year but if we go back another few years it is much smaller and appears much more reasonable. Compared to the existing fleet, new building orders are 7% for the Handysize, 6% for the Supramax and 10% for the Panamax/Kamsarmax sector and the Capesize sector is 11%.
The trade growth, i.e. demand for seaborne trade, in 2019 and 2020 and the fleet utilization will judge the fate of a lot of the older tonnage and whether the market is good enough to support additional investment (WBT) or not, in which case they will have to make way for the younger ones. Oil prices and the efficiency of each vessel will play a huge role on investment decisions. So, once again, we are approaching 2020 with uncertainty and volatility on both the demand and the supply side. 2019 is going to be interesting...
Happy New Year to All.
By Theodoros Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 22 January 19
9TH GLOBAL MANUFACTURING SUPPLY CHAIN INNOVATION SUMMIT 2019
Rethinking the supply chain in manufacturing is a must at the digital era along with the industry transforming and innovating; new manufacturing is ...
Tuesday, 22 January 19
AUSTRALIA'S YANCOAL PRODUCED 50 MMT SALEABLE COAL IN 2018 UP 59 PER CENT ON THE YEAR PRIOR, THE QUARTERLY REPORT SHOWS
According to the report, the miner's quarterly (Q4' 18) saleable coal production of 12.4 Mmt. Includes 10.5 Mmt (85 per cent) from the Comp ...
Monday, 21 January 19
KOSPO INVITING BIDS FOR 320K MT OF LOW CALORIFIC VALUE COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 320,000 MT of min 3,800 kcal/kg NCV low calo ...
Monday, 21 January 19
SUPRAMAX: INDONESIAN COAL RUNS, TONNAGE WAS GIVING APS DELIVERIES AND A 57,000DWT SHIP FIXED AT $7,000 FOR A TRIP TO WEST COAST INDIA - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A positive end to a week that saw rates on the West Australia/China run slip below $6.00, as charterers faced a plentiful supply ...
Monday, 21 January 19
HARD COAL WORLD TRADE IN 2018 RISES BY 3.7 PER CENT; GLOBAL HARD COAL PRODUCTION INCREASES BY 1.7 PER CENT - VDKI
Global Hard Coal Production Increases By 1.7%.
According to provisional calculations by the German Coal Importer Association (VDKi), ...
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- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Australian Coal Association
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- The University of Queensland
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
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