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Wednesday, 09 January 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INERMODAL
 Paraphrasing the words of a Chief economist in a latest report of the World Bank Group, the current state of the shipping market very much resembles that of a ship sailing, for the past decade, in shallow and tidy waters trying to avoid groundings. It was caught on a grounding two years ago, but is now freed by the rising tide. The Captain is of course relieved to be able to set sail. But this relief must be tempered by the urgency to sail toward deeper seas before the receding waters beach the ship again.
Until the mid of 2018, all the forecasts for 2018 and 2019 reflected optimism. More than half of the world's countries were experiencing growth. There was a synchronized recovery resulting in faster and stronger growth in the near term. Unemployment has declined in USA, Europe and Japan, whilst inflation has not picked up, finding a point of golden balance. However, as the report from WBG points out, the medium term prospects tell a different story. Trade wars may be devastating and the protectionist threats have already cast their spell on the world's growth, with uncertainty killing investment. Obviously this is also directly affecting the shipping market; adding on top of this the 2020 Sulphur cap regulations and untested solutions, the future of coal and the additional capex for WBT the result is more uncertainty, which makes shipping professionals more reluctant.
Downside risks to global growth have risen in the past eight months and expectations for upside surprises have receded. Global growth downward revision during 2018 reflects events that suppressed activity in some major advanced economies, the negative effects of the trade threats and measures already implemented or approved, as well as a weaker outlook for some key emerging market and developing economies arising from country-specific factors, geopolitical tensions, and higher oil import bills.
On the ship supply side (>20,000dwt), the dry bulk fleet grew by 200 vessels in absolute terms since last year. Whilst 2018 will be remembered for the very few bulk carrier deliveries - from the 400 bulk carriers that were planned to be delivered in 2018 just 268 ships were delivered - there was also very low scrapping activity, just fifty bulk carriers were sold for demolition. For 2019 it is projected that shipbuilders will deliver about another 530 vessels. The orderbook has increased by about 200 vessels since the same time last year but if we go back another few years it is much smaller and appears much more reasonable. Compared to the existing fleet, new building orders are 7% for the Handysize, 6% for the Supramax and 10% for the Panamax/Kamsarmax sector and the Capesize sector is 11%.
The trade growth, i.e. demand for seaborne trade, in 2019 and 2020 and the fleet utilization will judge the fate of a lot of the older tonnage and whether the market is good enough to support additional investment (WBT) or not, in which case they will have to make way for the younger ones. Oil prices and the efficiency of each vessel will play a huge role on investment decisions. So, once again, we are approaching 2020 with uncertainty and volatility on both the demand and the supply side. 2019 is going to be interesting...
Happy New Year to All.
By Theodoros Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 03 January 19
CAPESIZE: A MORE POSITIVE START OF THE NEW YEAR THAN EXPECTED FOR THE BIG SHIPS - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
A more positive start of the new year than expected for the big ships, with average gains of US$ 500/day posted on the first tra ...
Tuesday, 01 January 19
INDONESIA: COAL PRODUCTION EXPECTED TO EXCEED THIS YEAR'S TARGET - JP
Indonesian coal production reached 456 million tons up to Thursday or 94.02 percent of this year’s total target of 485 million tons, accordin ...
Monday, 31 December 18
THE INDONESIAN COAL MARKET Q1 '19 FORECAST: LOOKS DIRECTIONLESS - TRADER
The Indonesian coal market looks directionless, an International coal trader said when we asked him to give his forecast for 1Q' 2019.
...
Monday, 31 December 18
GLOBAL COAL DEMAND GREW BY 1% IN 2017; GLOBAL COAL POWER GENERATION INCREASED BY OVER 250 TWH - IEA
After two years of decline, global coal demand grew by 1% in 2017 to 7585 Mt as stronger global economic growth increased both industrial output an ...
Sunday, 30 December 18
MAJOR LNG BUYERS' UNCONTRACTED DEMAND TO QUADRUPLE BY 2030 - WOOD MACKENZIE
Wood Mackenzie’s latest research reveals that uncontracted demand by the world’s seven largest LNG buyers could quadruple to 80 million ...
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- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- PTC India Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Australian Coal Association
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
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