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Wednesday, 09 January 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INERMODAL
 Paraphrasing the words of a Chief economist in a latest report of the World Bank Group, the current state of the shipping market very much resembles that of a ship sailing, for the past decade, in shallow and tidy waters trying to avoid groundings. It was caught on a grounding two years ago, but is now freed by the rising tide. The Captain is of course relieved to be able to set sail. But this relief must be tempered by the urgency to sail toward deeper seas before the receding waters beach the ship again.
Until the mid of 2018, all the forecasts for 2018 and 2019 reflected optimism. More than half of the world's countries were experiencing growth. There was a synchronized recovery resulting in faster and stronger growth in the near term. Unemployment has declined in USA, Europe and Japan, whilst inflation has not picked up, finding a point of golden balance. However, as the report from WBG points out, the medium term prospects tell a different story. Trade wars may be devastating and the protectionist threats have already cast their spell on the world's growth, with uncertainty killing investment. Obviously this is also directly affecting the shipping market; adding on top of this the 2020 Sulphur cap regulations and untested solutions, the future of coal and the additional capex for WBT the result is more uncertainty, which makes shipping professionals more reluctant.
Downside risks to global growth have risen in the past eight months and expectations for upside surprises have receded. Global growth downward revision during 2018 reflects events that suppressed activity in some major advanced economies, the negative effects of the trade threats and measures already implemented or approved, as well as a weaker outlook for some key emerging market and developing economies arising from country-specific factors, geopolitical tensions, and higher oil import bills.
On the ship supply side (>20,000dwt), the dry bulk fleet grew by 200 vessels in absolute terms since last year. Whilst 2018 will be remembered for the very few bulk carrier deliveries - from the 400 bulk carriers that were planned to be delivered in 2018 just 268 ships were delivered - there was also very low scrapping activity, just fifty bulk carriers were sold for demolition. For 2019 it is projected that shipbuilders will deliver about another 530 vessels. The orderbook has increased by about 200 vessels since the same time last year but if we go back another few years it is much smaller and appears much more reasonable. Compared to the existing fleet, new building orders are 7% for the Handysize, 6% for the Supramax and 10% for the Panamax/Kamsarmax sector and the Capesize sector is 11%.
The trade growth, i.e. demand for seaborne trade, in 2019 and 2020 and the fleet utilization will judge the fate of a lot of the older tonnage and whether the market is good enough to support additional investment (WBT) or not, in which case they will have to make way for the younger ones. Oil prices and the efficiency of each vessel will play a huge role on investment decisions. So, once again, we are approaching 2020 with uncertainty and volatility on both the demand and the supply side. 2019 is going to be interesting...
Happy New Year to All.
By Theodoros Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 20 January 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: A MARATHON, NOT A SPRINT - IEA
Last month, we asked if there was a floor under prices following the signing of a new Vienna Agreement that aims to re-balance the oil market. Foll ...
Thursday, 17 January 19
EIA ESTIMATES THAT U.S. COAL EXPORTS WERE 116 MMST IN 2018, 20% HIGHER THAN THE AMOUNT EXPORTED IN 2017
Coal Supply
EIA estimates that coal production declined by 20 million short tons (MMst) (3%) in 2018, despite a 19 MMst increase in U.S. coal e ...
Thursday, 17 January 19
U.S COAL OUTPUT IS EXPECTED TO FALL BY 3 PER CENT IN 2019 - EIA
EIA forecasts that U.S. coal production will total 729 million short tons (MMst) in 2019, down by 25 MMst (3%) from 2018.
Acco ...
Wednesday, 16 January 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As we go through the first days of the year and just a few weeks before the Chinese New Year, the ship repair sector is witnessing a big difference ...
Monday, 14 January 19
KOREA SOUTHERN POWER INVITES BIDS FOR 320,000 MT OF MIN 3,800 NCV COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 320,000 MT of min 3,800 kcal/kg NCV coal for ...
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- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- PTC India Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- The University of Queensland
- Australian Coal Association
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Planning Commission, India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
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