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Wednesday, 09 January 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INERMODAL
 Paraphrasing the words of a Chief economist in a latest report of the World Bank Group, the current state of the shipping market very much resembles that of a ship sailing, for the past decade, in shallow and tidy waters trying to avoid groundings. It was caught on a grounding two years ago, but is now freed by the rising tide. The Captain is of course relieved to be able to set sail. But this relief must be tempered by the urgency to sail toward deeper seas before the receding waters beach the ship again.
Until the mid of 2018, all the forecasts for 2018 and 2019 reflected optimism. More than half of the world's countries were experiencing growth. There was a synchronized recovery resulting in faster and stronger growth in the near term. Unemployment has declined in USA, Europe and Japan, whilst inflation has not picked up, finding a point of golden balance. However, as the report from WBG points out, the medium term prospects tell a different story. Trade wars may be devastating and the protectionist threats have already cast their spell on the world's growth, with uncertainty killing investment. Obviously this is also directly affecting the shipping market; adding on top of this the 2020 Sulphur cap regulations and untested solutions, the future of coal and the additional capex for WBT the result is more uncertainty, which makes shipping professionals more reluctant.
Downside risks to global growth have risen in the past eight months and expectations for upside surprises have receded. Global growth downward revision during 2018 reflects events that suppressed activity in some major advanced economies, the negative effects of the trade threats and measures already implemented or approved, as well as a weaker outlook for some key emerging market and developing economies arising from country-specific factors, geopolitical tensions, and higher oil import bills.
On the ship supply side (>20,000dwt), the dry bulk fleet grew by 200 vessels in absolute terms since last year. Whilst 2018 will be remembered for the very few bulk carrier deliveries - from the 400 bulk carriers that were planned to be delivered in 2018 just 268 ships were delivered - there was also very low scrapping activity, just fifty bulk carriers were sold for demolition. For 2019 it is projected that shipbuilders will deliver about another 530 vessels. The orderbook has increased by about 200 vessels since the same time last year but if we go back another few years it is much smaller and appears much more reasonable. Compared to the existing fleet, new building orders are 7% for the Handysize, 6% for the Supramax and 10% for the Panamax/Kamsarmax sector and the Capesize sector is 11%.
The trade growth, i.e. demand for seaborne trade, in 2019 and 2020 and the fleet utilization will judge the fate of a lot of the older tonnage and whether the market is good enough to support additional investment (WBT) or not, in which case they will have to make way for the younger ones. Oil prices and the efficiency of each vessel will play a huge role on investment decisions. So, once again, we are approaching 2020 with uncertainty and volatility on both the demand and the supply side. 2019 is going to be interesting...
Happy New Year to All.
By Theodoros Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 29 January 19
HARD COAL BEARS THE BRUNT OF THE RECOMMENDATIONS OF THE COMMISSION GROWTH STRUCTURAL CHANGE AND EMPLOYMENT - VDKI
Press Release: Hard coal bears the brunt of the recommendations of the Commission Growth Structural change and employment.
In its fi ...
Tuesday, 29 January 19
CHINA HAS BEEN THE TOP DRIVER OF GLOBAL GROWTH FOR NEARLY TWO DECADES - ALLIED
China has been the top driver of global growth for nearly two decades now, pushing demand for seaborne trade and being the key influencer for deman ...
Saturday, 26 January 19
SUPRAMAX: NICKEL ORE RUNS SAW A 56K DWT VESSEL, DELIVERY PHILIPPINES, FIXED FOR A TRIP TO CHINA AT $6K - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A week of dashed hopes for owners as the optimism evident the previous week evaporated. Rates slipped on all routes and underlying thr ...
Thursday, 24 January 19
ANOTHER DISAPPOINTING WEEK FOR PANAMAX OWNERS; MARKET CONTINUES DOWN IN BOTH BASINS - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
The week has been marked by low activity and dropping rates in both basins. As usual, supply additions have increased at the beginning ...
Thursday, 24 January 19
KOREA SOUTHERN POWER INVITED BIDS FOR 960K MT OF 4600 NCV COAL FOR THREE YEARS
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 320,000 MT of min 4,600 kcal/kg NCV low calo ...
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- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
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