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Wednesday, 09 January 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INERMODAL
 Paraphrasing the words of a Chief economist in a latest report of the World Bank Group, the current state of the shipping market very much resembles that of a ship sailing, for the past decade, in shallow and tidy waters trying to avoid groundings. It was caught on a grounding two years ago, but is now freed by the rising tide. The Captain is of course relieved to be able to set sail. But this relief must be tempered by the urgency to sail toward deeper seas before the receding waters beach the ship again.
Until the mid of 2018, all the forecasts for 2018 and 2019 reflected optimism. More than half of the world's countries were experiencing growth. There was a synchronized recovery resulting in faster and stronger growth in the near term. Unemployment has declined in USA, Europe and Japan, whilst inflation has not picked up, finding a point of golden balance. However, as the report from WBG points out, the medium term prospects tell a different story. Trade wars may be devastating and the protectionist threats have already cast their spell on the world's growth, with uncertainty killing investment. Obviously this is also directly affecting the shipping market; adding on top of this the 2020 Sulphur cap regulations and untested solutions, the future of coal and the additional capex for WBT the result is more uncertainty, which makes shipping professionals more reluctant.
Downside risks to global growth have risen in the past eight months and expectations for upside surprises have receded. Global growth downward revision during 2018 reflects events that suppressed activity in some major advanced economies, the negative effects of the trade threats and measures already implemented or approved, as well as a weaker outlook for some key emerging market and developing economies arising from country-specific factors, geopolitical tensions, and higher oil import bills.
On the ship supply side (>20,000dwt), the dry bulk fleet grew by 200 vessels in absolute terms since last year. Whilst 2018 will be remembered for the very few bulk carrier deliveries - from the 400 bulk carriers that were planned to be delivered in 2018 just 268 ships were delivered - there was also very low scrapping activity, just fifty bulk carriers were sold for demolition. For 2019 it is projected that shipbuilders will deliver about another 530 vessels. The orderbook has increased by about 200 vessels since the same time last year but if we go back another few years it is much smaller and appears much more reasonable. Compared to the existing fleet, new building orders are 7% for the Handysize, 6% for the Supramax and 10% for the Panamax/Kamsarmax sector and the Capesize sector is 11%.
The trade growth, i.e. demand for seaborne trade, in 2019 and 2020 and the fleet utilization will judge the fate of a lot of the older tonnage and whether the market is good enough to support additional investment (WBT) or not, in which case they will have to make way for the younger ones. Oil prices and the efficiency of each vessel will play a huge role on investment decisions. So, once again, we are approaching 2020 with uncertainty and volatility on both the demand and the supply side. 2019 is going to be interesting...
Happy New Year to All.
By Theodoros Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Wednesday, 06 February 19
FEBRUARY 2019 INDONESIA'S COAL REFERENCE PRICE FELL 8.83 PERCENT YOY
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down again the benchmark price of Indonesian th ...
Wednesday, 06 February 19
THE BDI HAS EASED BACK TO 645 BP, ITS LOWEST LEVEL SINCE AUGUST 2016 - ALLIED
The dry bulk sector is in the doldrums, with most market participants seemingly left utterly perplexed, and simultaneously, in pursuit of any posit ...
Monday, 04 February 19
COAL STILL IN HIGH DEMAND GLOBALLY
Although the world is switching to renewable energy there is still a big demand for coal around the globe.
This is according to Cany ...
Friday, 01 February 19
ULTRAMAX WAS FIXED DELIVERY KALIMANTAN, FOR TRIP TO WEST COAST INDIA AT $7,000 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Vale dam tragedy sparked a sharp fall in rates across all regions even where tonnage remained tight. The potential loss of product ...
Friday, 01 February 19
SEMBCORP SELECTS NORDEN FOR LONG-TERM INDIAN CONTRACT
NORDEN A/S has signed a 10-year Panamax Contract of Affreightment (COA) with Indian utility firm Sembcorp Energy India Ltd.
From 1 A ...
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- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Australian Coal Association
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Planning Commission, India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
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