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Wednesday, 09 January 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INERMODAL
 Paraphrasing the words of a Chief economist in a latest report of the World Bank Group, the current state of the shipping market very much resembles that of a ship sailing, for the past decade, in shallow and tidy waters trying to avoid groundings. It was caught on a grounding two years ago, but is now freed by the rising tide. The Captain is of course relieved to be able to set sail. But this relief must be tempered by the urgency to sail toward deeper seas before the receding waters beach the ship again.
Until the mid of 2018, all the forecasts for 2018 and 2019 reflected optimism. More than half of the world's countries were experiencing growth. There was a synchronized recovery resulting in faster and stronger growth in the near term. Unemployment has declined in USA, Europe and Japan, whilst inflation has not picked up, finding a point of golden balance. However, as the report from WBG points out, the medium term prospects tell a different story. Trade wars may be devastating and the protectionist threats have already cast their spell on the world's growth, with uncertainty killing investment. Obviously this is also directly affecting the shipping market; adding on top of this the 2020 Sulphur cap regulations and untested solutions, the future of coal and the additional capex for WBT the result is more uncertainty, which makes shipping professionals more reluctant.
Downside risks to global growth have risen in the past eight months and expectations for upside surprises have receded. Global growth downward revision during 2018 reflects events that suppressed activity in some major advanced economies, the negative effects of the trade threats and measures already implemented or approved, as well as a weaker outlook for some key emerging market and developing economies arising from country-specific factors, geopolitical tensions, and higher oil import bills.
On the ship supply side (>20,000dwt), the dry bulk fleet grew by 200 vessels in absolute terms since last year. Whilst 2018 will be remembered for the very few bulk carrier deliveries - from the 400 bulk carriers that were planned to be delivered in 2018 just 268 ships were delivered - there was also very low scrapping activity, just fifty bulk carriers were sold for demolition. For 2019 it is projected that shipbuilders will deliver about another 530 vessels. The orderbook has increased by about 200 vessels since the same time last year but if we go back another few years it is much smaller and appears much more reasonable. Compared to the existing fleet, new building orders are 7% for the Handysize, 6% for the Supramax and 10% for the Panamax/Kamsarmax sector and the Capesize sector is 11%.
The trade growth, i.e. demand for seaborne trade, in 2019 and 2020 and the fleet utilization will judge the fate of a lot of the older tonnage and whether the market is good enough to support additional investment (WBT) or not, in which case they will have to make way for the younger ones. Oil prices and the efficiency of each vessel will play a huge role on investment decisions. So, once again, we are approaching 2020 with uncertainty and volatility on both the demand and the supply side. 2019 is going to be interesting...
Happy New Year to All.
By Theodoros Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 13 February 19
MALAYSIA WAS THE REGION'S LARGEST COAL IMPORTER WITH 34 MT IN 2018, UP 25% Y-O-Y
Although coal market in 2018 started with strong prices, starting in the beginning of the second half of 2018, the international spot prices for co ...
Wednesday, 13 February 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
If there is one word that can describe the current shipping environment then that this word is most probably “volatility.” The sentimen ...
Saturday, 09 February 19
SUPRAMAX: A 63,000-TONNER WAS REPORTED FIXED DELIVERY FOR AN EAST KALIMANTAN TRIP, REDELIVERY WEST COAST INDIA, AT $9,250 - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Cape
The Vale disaster weighed heavily on the market for big ships, with uncertainty about shipments/future exports leading to a sharp drop in ...
Friday, 08 February 19
LOWER-QUALITY INDONESIA EXPORTS ROSE 39 MT IN 2018 YOY PRIMARILY IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED DEMAND FROM CHINA AND INDIA - PEABODY
"Underlying seaborne met and thermal coal conditions remain quite positive and the pace of U.S. coal-fueled power plant retirements is expecte ...
Thursday, 07 February 19
QATAR CAN GAIN FROM DECLINING COAL - THE PENINSULA
With North America and Europe closing down their old coal and nuclear plants, major gas exporters like Qatar can and should gain market share. With ...
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- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
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