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Tuesday, 18 September 18
COOLING OUTLOOK FOR COAL - KATE JONES
.jpg) At a time of increasing focus on the renewables market as the world seeks to clean up its act to prevent climate change, what is the outlook like for coal? If an August report from Statistics Market Research Consulting (Stratistics MRC) is anything to go by, the answer to that question appears to be, ‘not as bad as one might fear’.
The report, Coal Industry – Global Market Outlook (2017-2026), forecasts the global coal market to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 12.5% from 2017 to 2026 — and hit $34.65m by the latter year. An enlarging manufacturing base, rising economic growth and increasing electricity demand are some of the key factors propelling the growth, according to the study, though the report did claim that price instability is restricting market enlargement. Furthermore, the world coal market accounted for $11.93m last year. Based on geography, growth in the market during 2017-2026 is anticipated for the Asia-Pacific region —several nations in the area, such as China and Japan, lack energy resources and are therefore importing to meet requirements.
The world of the product
However, this positive picture stands somewhat alone. At the end of August, it was reported that a push to lessen the development of coal mines, as well as growing investor pressure to divest from fossil fuels, is generating a mining industry division between businesses leaving the sector and companies vowing to stay in it. Banks that have reportedly brought lending for new coal mines to a halt include Deutsche Bank and the Royal Bank of Scotland, while new project spending has dropped 80%, from $10bn in 2012 to $2.2bn this year. This trend, along with a government-led campaign in China to cut supply of domestic coal to reduce pollution, has made the coal price almost double over the last three years — to trade at $113 a tonne.
But some companies are staying in the industry or enlarging their presence. For the world’s biggest miner, BHP, there is confidence in coal’s staying power.
“The world, rightly or wrongly, is going to be using a lot of thermal coal,” claimed Peter Beaven, BHP’s chief financial officer, referring to the kind of coal used in power stations. The company has no plans to sell its coal assets — and neither does the biggest producer of seaborne coal for export globally, Glencore. In fact, Glencore is in expansion mode. This year, it purchased a 49% share in a Yancoal-operated thermal coal project in New South Wales in Australia and bought Rio Tinto’s Hail Creek coal mine in Queensland, also in Australia, for $1.7bn. The company reportedly made $2bn from its coal division in H1 2018, with the business estimating that at current prices, coal will be its largest earnings driver for the full year. Macquarie Group analysts describes the organisation as “slowly stepping into the breach, quietly consolidating its position in an unpopular sub-sector of the mining industry”.
However, not all coal miners have had such good fortune. In March, Rio Tinto sold its last coal mine to EMR Capital and Adaro Energy for $2.25bn, while South32 plans on selling its South African thermal coal assets to local investors later in 2018. South32 chief executive Graham Kerr has reportedly argued that thermal coal is increasingly becoming a focus of meetings with investors.
“Every six months, they tell you they can’t invest in you,” he noted.
What’s more, coal could soon find itself eclipsed by renewables. Fitch Solutions said at the end of August that renewable energy will play an increasingly important role in powering mining operations across the globe over the coming years, while Alexa Capital co-founder Gerard Reid has said that because wind and solar power have already become less expensive than coal-fired power in many parts of the world, a renewables move could happen faster than many believe.
The mixed messages mirror the division among investors and analysts over coal: while both the Church of England Pensions Board and BMO Global Asset Management have both turned away from supporting coal, Norway’s $1tr sovereign wealth fund (which owns Glencore shares), has said it would only exclude companies “which themselves, or through entities they control, derive 30% or more of their income from thermal coal”.
Area focus
Yet, Stratistics MRC’s prediction of Asia-Pacific coal market growth resonates with other indicators for the field. BP predicted that coal would likely stay the dominant energy source in Asia as late as 2040, while the Australian Bureau of Statistics said that Australia’s coal mining industry increased capital expenditure by 20% in 2017-18 to $3.5bn. However, analysts are split on how fast the planet’s largest coal consumer, China, will move away from the commodity. According to official figures, its coal consumption went up just 0.4% last year.
However, BHP, despite feeling that coal is set to “progressively lose competitiveness to renewables on a newbuild basis in the developed world and in China”, predicts that the crossover point will not be reached until the end of the next decade and says that coal power “is expected to retain competitiveness in India and other populous emerging markets for a much-longer time”.
As for the US, it was reported at the end of last month that US President Donald Trump was pushing forward with his endeavours to revive the US coal mining sector and that the Environmental Protection Agency claimed it was planning to repeal previous president Barack Obama’s Clean Power Plan, relaxing coal-fired power plant regulation. US coal miners like Peabody will no doubt be pleased by this shift in emphasis — its shares are up by 7% in the year to date, having reportedly been boosted by President Trump’s coal-supporting efforts.
Source: The Baltic Briefing
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Monday, 17 September 18
SMALL PERCENTAGE OF THE WORLD FLEET WILL FIT SCRUBBERS - FORECASTS : METTE KRONHOLM FRAENDE
In recent months, there have been numerous reports of a strong pick-up in demand for scrubbers. On 1 January 2020, however, the number of ships fit ...
Saturday, 15 September 18
POWERING SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW EMISSION COAL TECHNOLOGIES - WCA
In its 5th Strategic Energy Plan this year (2018), the Japanese Cabinet recognised coal as an important energy resource, necessary for the country& ...
Friday, 14 September 18
10 YEARS ON FROM LEHMAN, HOW IS SHIPPING'S "HANGOVER"? - CLARKSONS RESEARCH
On 15th September 2008, the collapse of Lehman Brothers crystallised the financial crisis and the onset the worst economic downturn for a century. ...
Thursday, 13 September 18
OPEC SEES SLOWER 2019 OIL DEMAND GROWTH, WARNS ON ECONOMY
Crude Oil Price Movements
In August, the OPEC Reference Basket declined by $1.01 m-o-m, settling at $72.26/b. Crude oil futures were also down ...
Thursday, 13 September 18
SUPRAMAX: INDO-INDIA COAL RUN WAS FIXED CLOSE TO $16000 ON ULTRA - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
Rates took a further drop in the beginning of the week, to later find a floor around mid-week reaching mid USD 7 level for c5 and just ...
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- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- White Energy Company Limited
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
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