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Tuesday, 18 September 18
COOLING OUTLOOK FOR COAL - KATE JONES
.jpg) At a time of increasing focus on the renewables market as the world seeks to clean up its act to prevent climate change, what is the outlook like for coal? If an August report from Statistics Market Research Consulting (Stratistics MRC) is anything to go by, the answer to that question appears to be, ‘not as bad as one might fear’.
The report, Coal Industry – Global Market Outlook (2017-2026), forecasts the global coal market to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 12.5% from 2017 to 2026 — and hit $34.65m by the latter year. An enlarging manufacturing base, rising economic growth and increasing electricity demand are some of the key factors propelling the growth, according to the study, though the report did claim that price instability is restricting market enlargement. Furthermore, the world coal market accounted for $11.93m last year. Based on geography, growth in the market during 2017-2026 is anticipated for the Asia-Pacific region —several nations in the area, such as China and Japan, lack energy resources and are therefore importing to meet requirements.
The world of the product
However, this positive picture stands somewhat alone. At the end of August, it was reported that a push to lessen the development of coal mines, as well as growing investor pressure to divest from fossil fuels, is generating a mining industry division between businesses leaving the sector and companies vowing to stay in it. Banks that have reportedly brought lending for new coal mines to a halt include Deutsche Bank and the Royal Bank of Scotland, while new project spending has dropped 80%, from $10bn in 2012 to $2.2bn this year. This trend, along with a government-led campaign in China to cut supply of domestic coal to reduce pollution, has made the coal price almost double over the last three years — to trade at $113 a tonne.
But some companies are staying in the industry or enlarging their presence. For the world’s biggest miner, BHP, there is confidence in coal’s staying power.
“The world, rightly or wrongly, is going to be using a lot of thermal coal,” claimed Peter Beaven, BHP’s chief financial officer, referring to the kind of coal used in power stations. The company has no plans to sell its coal assets — and neither does the biggest producer of seaborne coal for export globally, Glencore. In fact, Glencore is in expansion mode. This year, it purchased a 49% share in a Yancoal-operated thermal coal project in New South Wales in Australia and bought Rio Tinto’s Hail Creek coal mine in Queensland, also in Australia, for $1.7bn. The company reportedly made $2bn from its coal division in H1 2018, with the business estimating that at current prices, coal will be its largest earnings driver for the full year. Macquarie Group analysts describes the organisation as “slowly stepping into the breach, quietly consolidating its position in an unpopular sub-sector of the mining industry”.
However, not all coal miners have had such good fortune. In March, Rio Tinto sold its last coal mine to EMR Capital and Adaro Energy for $2.25bn, while South32 plans on selling its South African thermal coal assets to local investors later in 2018. South32 chief executive Graham Kerr has reportedly argued that thermal coal is increasingly becoming a focus of meetings with investors.
“Every six months, they tell you they can’t invest in you,” he noted.
What’s more, coal could soon find itself eclipsed by renewables. Fitch Solutions said at the end of August that renewable energy will play an increasingly important role in powering mining operations across the globe over the coming years, while Alexa Capital co-founder Gerard Reid has said that because wind and solar power have already become less expensive than coal-fired power in many parts of the world, a renewables move could happen faster than many believe.
The mixed messages mirror the division among investors and analysts over coal: while both the Church of England Pensions Board and BMO Global Asset Management have both turned away from supporting coal, Norway’s $1tr sovereign wealth fund (which owns Glencore shares), has said it would only exclude companies “which themselves, or through entities they control, derive 30% or more of their income from thermal coal”.
Area focus
Yet, Stratistics MRC’s prediction of Asia-Pacific coal market growth resonates with other indicators for the field. BP predicted that coal would likely stay the dominant energy source in Asia as late as 2040, while the Australian Bureau of Statistics said that Australia’s coal mining industry increased capital expenditure by 20% in 2017-18 to $3.5bn. However, analysts are split on how fast the planet’s largest coal consumer, China, will move away from the commodity. According to official figures, its coal consumption went up just 0.4% last year.
However, BHP, despite feeling that coal is set to “progressively lose competitiveness to renewables on a newbuild basis in the developed world and in China”, predicts that the crossover point will not be reached until the end of the next decade and says that coal power “is expected to retain competitiveness in India and other populous emerging markets for a much-longer time”.
As for the US, it was reported at the end of last month that US President Donald Trump was pushing forward with his endeavours to revive the US coal mining sector and that the Environmental Protection Agency claimed it was planning to repeal previous president Barack Obama’s Clean Power Plan, relaxing coal-fired power plant regulation. US coal miners like Peabody will no doubt be pleased by this shift in emphasis — its shares are up by 7% in the year to date, having reportedly been boosted by President Trump’s coal-supporting efforts.
Source: The Baltic Briefing
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Monday, 17 September 18
SMALL PERCENTAGE OF THE WORLD FLEET WILL FIT SCRUBBERS - FORECASTS : METTE KRONHOLM FRAENDE
In recent months, there have been numerous reports of a strong pick-up in demand for scrubbers. On 1 January 2020, however, the number of ships fit ...
Saturday, 15 September 18
POWERING SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW EMISSION COAL TECHNOLOGIES - WCA
In its 5th Strategic Energy Plan this year (2018), the Japanese Cabinet recognised coal as an important energy resource, necessary for the country& ...
Friday, 14 September 18
10 YEARS ON FROM LEHMAN, HOW IS SHIPPING'S "HANGOVER"? - CLARKSONS RESEARCH
On 15th September 2008, the collapse of Lehman Brothers crystallised the financial crisis and the onset the worst economic downturn for a century. ...
Thursday, 13 September 18
OPEC SEES SLOWER 2019 OIL DEMAND GROWTH, WARNS ON ECONOMY
Crude Oil Price Movements
In August, the OPEC Reference Basket declined by $1.01 m-o-m, settling at $72.26/b. Crude oil futures were also down ...
Thursday, 13 September 18
SUPRAMAX: INDO-INDIA COAL RUN WAS FIXED CLOSE TO $16000 ON ULTRA - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
Rates took a further drop in the beginning of the week, to later find a floor around mid-week reaching mid USD 7 level for c5 and just ...
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- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- The University of Queensland
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
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