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Tuesday, 18 September 18
COOLING OUTLOOK FOR COAL - KATE JONES
.jpg) At a time of increasing focus on the renewables market as the world seeks to clean up its act to prevent climate change, what is the outlook like for coal? If an August report from Statistics Market Research Consulting (Stratistics MRC) is anything to go by, the answer to that question appears to be, ‘not as bad as one might fear’.
The report, Coal Industry – Global Market Outlook (2017-2026), forecasts the global coal market to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 12.5% from 2017 to 2026 — and hit $34.65m by the latter year. An enlarging manufacturing base, rising economic growth and increasing electricity demand are some of the key factors propelling the growth, according to the study, though the report did claim that price instability is restricting market enlargement. Furthermore, the world coal market accounted for $11.93m last year. Based on geography, growth in the market during 2017-2026 is anticipated for the Asia-Pacific region —several nations in the area, such as China and Japan, lack energy resources and are therefore importing to meet requirements.
The world of the product
However, this positive picture stands somewhat alone. At the end of August, it was reported that a push to lessen the development of coal mines, as well as growing investor pressure to divest from fossil fuels, is generating a mining industry division between businesses leaving the sector and companies vowing to stay in it. Banks that have reportedly brought lending for new coal mines to a halt include Deutsche Bank and the Royal Bank of Scotland, while new project spending has dropped 80%, from $10bn in 2012 to $2.2bn this year. This trend, along with a government-led campaign in China to cut supply of domestic coal to reduce pollution, has made the coal price almost double over the last three years — to trade at $113 a tonne.
But some companies are staying in the industry or enlarging their presence. For the world’s biggest miner, BHP, there is confidence in coal’s staying power.
“The world, rightly or wrongly, is going to be using a lot of thermal coal,” claimed Peter Beaven, BHP’s chief financial officer, referring to the kind of coal used in power stations. The company has no plans to sell its coal assets — and neither does the biggest producer of seaborne coal for export globally, Glencore. In fact, Glencore is in expansion mode. This year, it purchased a 49% share in a Yancoal-operated thermal coal project in New South Wales in Australia and bought Rio Tinto’s Hail Creek coal mine in Queensland, also in Australia, for $1.7bn. The company reportedly made $2bn from its coal division in H1 2018, with the business estimating that at current prices, coal will be its largest earnings driver for the full year. Macquarie Group analysts describes the organisation as “slowly stepping into the breach, quietly consolidating its position in an unpopular sub-sector of the mining industry”.
However, not all coal miners have had such good fortune. In March, Rio Tinto sold its last coal mine to EMR Capital and Adaro Energy for $2.25bn, while South32 plans on selling its South African thermal coal assets to local investors later in 2018. South32 chief executive Graham Kerr has reportedly argued that thermal coal is increasingly becoming a focus of meetings with investors.
“Every six months, they tell you they can’t invest in you,” he noted.
What’s more, coal could soon find itself eclipsed by renewables. Fitch Solutions said at the end of August that renewable energy will play an increasingly important role in powering mining operations across the globe over the coming years, while Alexa Capital co-founder Gerard Reid has said that because wind and solar power have already become less expensive than coal-fired power in many parts of the world, a renewables move could happen faster than many believe.
The mixed messages mirror the division among investors and analysts over coal: while both the Church of England Pensions Board and BMO Global Asset Management have both turned away from supporting coal, Norway’s $1tr sovereign wealth fund (which owns Glencore shares), has said it would only exclude companies “which themselves, or through entities they control, derive 30% or more of their income from thermal coal”.
Area focus
Yet, Stratistics MRC’s prediction of Asia-Pacific coal market growth resonates with other indicators for the field. BP predicted that coal would likely stay the dominant energy source in Asia as late as 2040, while the Australian Bureau of Statistics said that Australia’s coal mining industry increased capital expenditure by 20% in 2017-18 to $3.5bn. However, analysts are split on how fast the planet’s largest coal consumer, China, will move away from the commodity. According to official figures, its coal consumption went up just 0.4% last year.
However, BHP, despite feeling that coal is set to “progressively lose competitiveness to renewables on a newbuild basis in the developed world and in China”, predicts that the crossover point will not be reached until the end of the next decade and says that coal power “is expected to retain competitiveness in India and other populous emerging markets for a much-longer time”.
As for the US, it was reported at the end of last month that US President Donald Trump was pushing forward with his endeavours to revive the US coal mining sector and that the Environmental Protection Agency claimed it was planning to repeal previous president Barack Obama’s Clean Power Plan, relaxing coal-fired power plant regulation. US coal miners like Peabody will no doubt be pleased by this shift in emphasis — its shares are up by 7% in the year to date, having reportedly been boosted by President Trump’s coal-supporting efforts.
Source: The Baltic Briefing
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Wednesday, 12 September 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - THEODORE NTALAKOS
A recovery in the shipping market since last year has buoyed optimism amongst the people in the industry. Yet if you are to ask most ship-owners if ...
Monday, 10 September 18
HANDYSIZE: PERIOD ACTIVITY REMAINED LIMITED WITH A 37,000DWT REPORTEDLY FIXED FOR FOUR TO SIX MONTHS AT $10,500, OPEN IN MALAYSIA IN MID-SEPTEMBER - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Rates came under pressure for the big ships last week, despite paper values holding at reasonable levels as these trades continued to ...
Thursday, 06 September 18
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE FALLS FOR FIRST TIME IN 3 MONTHS
COALspot.com: The benchmark price of Indonesian thermal coal falls for first time in three months.
According to the latest min ...
Thursday, 06 September 18
SUPRAMAX: SE ASIA-INDO ROUNDS WITH COAL HAVE BEEN CONCLUDED IN THE $13000S RANGE - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
The big ships experiencing a bump in the road towards what is commonly expected to be by far the best period of this year. Average dai ...
Wednesday, 05 September 18
ASIAN DEMAND COULD CREATE DEFICIT IN GLOBAL LNG MARKET - FITCH RATINGS
Growing gas demand from Asia, particularly from China, could swing the liquefied natural gas (LNG) market into a deficit by 2022-2025, Fitch Rating ...
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- PTC India Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Planning Commission, India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- The University of Queensland
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
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