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Tuesday, 18 September 18
COOLING OUTLOOK FOR COAL - KATE JONES
.jpg) At a time of increasing focus on the renewables market as the world seeks to clean up its act to prevent climate change, what is the outlook like for coal? If an August report from Statistics Market Research Consulting (Stratistics MRC) is anything to go by, the answer to that question appears to be, ‘not as bad as one might fear’.
The report, Coal Industry – Global Market Outlook (2017-2026), forecasts the global coal market to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 12.5% from 2017 to 2026 — and hit $34.65m by the latter year. An enlarging manufacturing base, rising economic growth and increasing electricity demand are some of the key factors propelling the growth, according to the study, though the report did claim that price instability is restricting market enlargement. Furthermore, the world coal market accounted for $11.93m last year. Based on geography, growth in the market during 2017-2026 is anticipated for the Asia-Pacific region —several nations in the area, such as China and Japan, lack energy resources and are therefore importing to meet requirements.
The world of the product
However, this positive picture stands somewhat alone. At the end of August, it was reported that a push to lessen the development of coal mines, as well as growing investor pressure to divest from fossil fuels, is generating a mining industry division between businesses leaving the sector and companies vowing to stay in it. Banks that have reportedly brought lending for new coal mines to a halt include Deutsche Bank and the Royal Bank of Scotland, while new project spending has dropped 80%, from $10bn in 2012 to $2.2bn this year. This trend, along with a government-led campaign in China to cut supply of domestic coal to reduce pollution, has made the coal price almost double over the last three years — to trade at $113 a tonne.
But some companies are staying in the industry or enlarging their presence. For the world’s biggest miner, BHP, there is confidence in coal’s staying power.
“The world, rightly or wrongly, is going to be using a lot of thermal coal,” claimed Peter Beaven, BHP’s chief financial officer, referring to the kind of coal used in power stations. The company has no plans to sell its coal assets — and neither does the biggest producer of seaborne coal for export globally, Glencore. In fact, Glencore is in expansion mode. This year, it purchased a 49% share in a Yancoal-operated thermal coal project in New South Wales in Australia and bought Rio Tinto’s Hail Creek coal mine in Queensland, also in Australia, for $1.7bn. The company reportedly made $2bn from its coal division in H1 2018, with the business estimating that at current prices, coal will be its largest earnings driver for the full year. Macquarie Group analysts describes the organisation as “slowly stepping into the breach, quietly consolidating its position in an unpopular sub-sector of the mining industry”.
However, not all coal miners have had such good fortune. In March, Rio Tinto sold its last coal mine to EMR Capital and Adaro Energy for $2.25bn, while South32 plans on selling its South African thermal coal assets to local investors later in 2018. South32 chief executive Graham Kerr has reportedly argued that thermal coal is increasingly becoming a focus of meetings with investors.
“Every six months, they tell you they can’t invest in you,” he noted.
What’s more, coal could soon find itself eclipsed by renewables. Fitch Solutions said at the end of August that renewable energy will play an increasingly important role in powering mining operations across the globe over the coming years, while Alexa Capital co-founder Gerard Reid has said that because wind and solar power have already become less expensive than coal-fired power in many parts of the world, a renewables move could happen faster than many believe.
The mixed messages mirror the division among investors and analysts over coal: while both the Church of England Pensions Board and BMO Global Asset Management have both turned away from supporting coal, Norway’s $1tr sovereign wealth fund (which owns Glencore shares), has said it would only exclude companies “which themselves, or through entities they control, derive 30% or more of their income from thermal coal”.
Area focus
Yet, Stratistics MRC’s prediction of Asia-Pacific coal market growth resonates with other indicators for the field. BP predicted that coal would likely stay the dominant energy source in Asia as late as 2040, while the Australian Bureau of Statistics said that Australia’s coal mining industry increased capital expenditure by 20% in 2017-18 to $3.5bn. However, analysts are split on how fast the planet’s largest coal consumer, China, will move away from the commodity. According to official figures, its coal consumption went up just 0.4% last year.
However, BHP, despite feeling that coal is set to “progressively lose competitiveness to renewables on a newbuild basis in the developed world and in China”, predicts that the crossover point will not be reached until the end of the next decade and says that coal power “is expected to retain competitiveness in India and other populous emerging markets for a much-longer time”.
As for the US, it was reported at the end of last month that US President Donald Trump was pushing forward with his endeavours to revive the US coal mining sector and that the Environmental Protection Agency claimed it was planning to repeal previous president Barack Obama’s Clean Power Plan, relaxing coal-fired power plant regulation. US coal miners like Peabody will no doubt be pleased by this shift in emphasis — its shares are up by 7% in the year to date, having reportedly been boosted by President Trump’s coal-supporting efforts.
Source: The Baltic Briefing
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Tuesday, 25 September 18
THE INCONVENIENT TRUTH OF RISING COAL PRICES - FORBES
Coal prices are not supposed to be rising as governments tighten environmental controls but that’s precisely what is happening at the premium ...
Saturday, 22 September 18
SHIPOWNERS URGENTLY NEED A FUEL-MANAGEMENT PLAN - METTE KRONHOLM FRAENDE, BIMCO
With the majority of ship operators expected to choose low-sulphur fuel over scrubbers to comply with the new IMO sulphur cap regulation, all eyes ...
Saturday, 22 September 18
GERMANY'S MOVE TO SCRAP COAL WILL COST TAXPAYERS - BRIAN PARKIN | WILLIAM WILKES
Chancellor Angela Merkel’s plan to close Germany’s remaining coal-fired power stations will drive up subsidies for regions that mine th ...
Saturday, 22 September 18
FITCH RATINGS: WORLD GROWTH FORECAST CUT ON US-CHINA TRADE BATTLE
Protectionist US trade policies have now reached the point where they are materially affecting what remains a strong global growth outlook, with th ...
Monday, 17 September 18
GLENCORE RETURNS TO JAPAN COAL TALKS SCUPPERED BY HIGH PRICES - BLOOMBERG
Mining giant Glencore Plc and Japanese utilities have resumed thermal coal supply negotiations, restarting talks that fell apart earlier this year ...
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- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
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