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Tuesday, 18 September 18
COOLING OUTLOOK FOR COAL - KATE JONES
.jpg) At a time of increasing focus on the renewables market as the world seeks to clean up its act to prevent climate change, what is the outlook like for coal? If an August report from Statistics Market Research Consulting (Stratistics MRC) is anything to go by, the answer to that question appears to be, ‘not as bad as one might fear’.
The report, Coal Industry – Global Market Outlook (2017-2026), forecasts the global coal market to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 12.5% from 2017 to 2026 — and hit $34.65m by the latter year. An enlarging manufacturing base, rising economic growth and increasing electricity demand are some of the key factors propelling the growth, according to the study, though the report did claim that price instability is restricting market enlargement. Furthermore, the world coal market accounted for $11.93m last year. Based on geography, growth in the market during 2017-2026 is anticipated for the Asia-Pacific region —several nations in the area, such as China and Japan, lack energy resources and are therefore importing to meet requirements.
The world of the product
However, this positive picture stands somewhat alone. At the end of August, it was reported that a push to lessen the development of coal mines, as well as growing investor pressure to divest from fossil fuels, is generating a mining industry division between businesses leaving the sector and companies vowing to stay in it. Banks that have reportedly brought lending for new coal mines to a halt include Deutsche Bank and the Royal Bank of Scotland, while new project spending has dropped 80%, from $10bn in 2012 to $2.2bn this year. This trend, along with a government-led campaign in China to cut supply of domestic coal to reduce pollution, has made the coal price almost double over the last three years — to trade at $113 a tonne.
But some companies are staying in the industry or enlarging their presence. For the world’s biggest miner, BHP, there is confidence in coal’s staying power.
“The world, rightly or wrongly, is going to be using a lot of thermal coal,” claimed Peter Beaven, BHP’s chief financial officer, referring to the kind of coal used in power stations. The company has no plans to sell its coal assets — and neither does the biggest producer of seaborne coal for export globally, Glencore. In fact, Glencore is in expansion mode. This year, it purchased a 49% share in a Yancoal-operated thermal coal project in New South Wales in Australia and bought Rio Tinto’s Hail Creek coal mine in Queensland, also in Australia, for $1.7bn. The company reportedly made $2bn from its coal division in H1 2018, with the business estimating that at current prices, coal will be its largest earnings driver for the full year. Macquarie Group analysts describes the organisation as “slowly stepping into the breach, quietly consolidating its position in an unpopular sub-sector of the mining industry”.
However, not all coal miners have had such good fortune. In March, Rio Tinto sold its last coal mine to EMR Capital and Adaro Energy for $2.25bn, while South32 plans on selling its South African thermal coal assets to local investors later in 2018. South32 chief executive Graham Kerr has reportedly argued that thermal coal is increasingly becoming a focus of meetings with investors.
“Every six months, they tell you they can’t invest in you,” he noted.
What’s more, coal could soon find itself eclipsed by renewables. Fitch Solutions said at the end of August that renewable energy will play an increasingly important role in powering mining operations across the globe over the coming years, while Alexa Capital co-founder Gerard Reid has said that because wind and solar power have already become less expensive than coal-fired power in many parts of the world, a renewables move could happen faster than many believe.
The mixed messages mirror the division among investors and analysts over coal: while both the Church of England Pensions Board and BMO Global Asset Management have both turned away from supporting coal, Norway’s $1tr sovereign wealth fund (which owns Glencore shares), has said it would only exclude companies “which themselves, or through entities they control, derive 30% or more of their income from thermal coal”.
Area focus
Yet, Stratistics MRC’s prediction of Asia-Pacific coal market growth resonates with other indicators for the field. BP predicted that coal would likely stay the dominant energy source in Asia as late as 2040, while the Australian Bureau of Statistics said that Australia’s coal mining industry increased capital expenditure by 20% in 2017-18 to $3.5bn. However, analysts are split on how fast the planet’s largest coal consumer, China, will move away from the commodity. According to official figures, its coal consumption went up just 0.4% last year.
However, BHP, despite feeling that coal is set to “progressively lose competitiveness to renewables on a newbuild basis in the developed world and in China”, predicts that the crossover point will not be reached until the end of the next decade and says that coal power “is expected to retain competitiveness in India and other populous emerging markets for a much-longer time”.
As for the US, it was reported at the end of last month that US President Donald Trump was pushing forward with his endeavours to revive the US coal mining sector and that the Environmental Protection Agency claimed it was planning to repeal previous president Barack Obama’s Clean Power Plan, relaxing coal-fired power plant regulation. US coal miners like Peabody will no doubt be pleased by this shift in emphasis — its shares are up by 7% in the year to date, having reportedly been boosted by President Trump’s coal-supporting efforts.
Source: The Baltic Briefing
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Tuesday, 25 September 18
THE INCONVENIENT TRUTH OF RISING COAL PRICES - FORBES
Coal prices are not supposed to be rising as governments tighten environmental controls but that’s precisely what is happening at the premium ...
Saturday, 22 September 18
SHIPOWNERS URGENTLY NEED A FUEL-MANAGEMENT PLAN - METTE KRONHOLM FRAENDE, BIMCO
With the majority of ship operators expected to choose low-sulphur fuel over scrubbers to comply with the new IMO sulphur cap regulation, all eyes ...
Saturday, 22 September 18
GERMANY'S MOVE TO SCRAP COAL WILL COST TAXPAYERS - BRIAN PARKIN | WILLIAM WILKES
Chancellor Angela Merkel’s plan to close Germany’s remaining coal-fired power stations will drive up subsidies for regions that mine th ...
Saturday, 22 September 18
FITCH RATINGS: WORLD GROWTH FORECAST CUT ON US-CHINA TRADE BATTLE
Protectionist US trade policies have now reached the point where they are materially affecting what remains a strong global growth outlook, with th ...
Monday, 17 September 18
GLENCORE RETURNS TO JAPAN COAL TALKS SCUPPERED BY HIGH PRICES - BLOOMBERG
Mining giant Glencore Plc and Japanese utilities have resumed thermal coal supply negotiations, restarting talks that fell apart earlier this year ...
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- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Australian Coal Association
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Planning Commission, India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- The University of Queensland
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
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