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Tuesday, 18 September 18
COOLING OUTLOOK FOR COAL - KATE JONES
.jpg) At a time of increasing focus on the renewables market as the world seeks to clean up its act to prevent climate change, what is the outlook like for coal? If an August report from Statistics Market Research Consulting (Stratistics MRC) is anything to go by, the answer to that question appears to be, ‘not as bad as one might fear’.
The report, Coal Industry – Global Market Outlook (2017-2026), forecasts the global coal market to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 12.5% from 2017 to 2026 — and hit $34.65m by the latter year. An enlarging manufacturing base, rising economic growth and increasing electricity demand are some of the key factors propelling the growth, according to the study, though the report did claim that price instability is restricting market enlargement. Furthermore, the world coal market accounted for $11.93m last year. Based on geography, growth in the market during 2017-2026 is anticipated for the Asia-Pacific region —several nations in the area, such as China and Japan, lack energy resources and are therefore importing to meet requirements.
The world of the product
However, this positive picture stands somewhat alone. At the end of August, it was reported that a push to lessen the development of coal mines, as well as growing investor pressure to divest from fossil fuels, is generating a mining industry division between businesses leaving the sector and companies vowing to stay in it. Banks that have reportedly brought lending for new coal mines to a halt include Deutsche Bank and the Royal Bank of Scotland, while new project spending has dropped 80%, from $10bn in 2012 to $2.2bn this year. This trend, along with a government-led campaign in China to cut supply of domestic coal to reduce pollution, has made the coal price almost double over the last three years — to trade at $113 a tonne.
But some companies are staying in the industry or enlarging their presence. For the world’s biggest miner, BHP, there is confidence in coal’s staying power.
“The world, rightly or wrongly, is going to be using a lot of thermal coal,” claimed Peter Beaven, BHP’s chief financial officer, referring to the kind of coal used in power stations. The company has no plans to sell its coal assets — and neither does the biggest producer of seaborne coal for export globally, Glencore. In fact, Glencore is in expansion mode. This year, it purchased a 49% share in a Yancoal-operated thermal coal project in New South Wales in Australia and bought Rio Tinto’s Hail Creek coal mine in Queensland, also in Australia, for $1.7bn. The company reportedly made $2bn from its coal division in H1 2018, with the business estimating that at current prices, coal will be its largest earnings driver for the full year. Macquarie Group analysts describes the organisation as “slowly stepping into the breach, quietly consolidating its position in an unpopular sub-sector of the mining industry”.
However, not all coal miners have had such good fortune. In March, Rio Tinto sold its last coal mine to EMR Capital and Adaro Energy for $2.25bn, while South32 plans on selling its South African thermal coal assets to local investors later in 2018. South32 chief executive Graham Kerr has reportedly argued that thermal coal is increasingly becoming a focus of meetings with investors.
“Every six months, they tell you they can’t invest in you,” he noted.
What’s more, coal could soon find itself eclipsed by renewables. Fitch Solutions said at the end of August that renewable energy will play an increasingly important role in powering mining operations across the globe over the coming years, while Alexa Capital co-founder Gerard Reid has said that because wind and solar power have already become less expensive than coal-fired power in many parts of the world, a renewables move could happen faster than many believe.
The mixed messages mirror the division among investors and analysts over coal: while both the Church of England Pensions Board and BMO Global Asset Management have both turned away from supporting coal, Norway’s $1tr sovereign wealth fund (which owns Glencore shares), has said it would only exclude companies “which themselves, or through entities they control, derive 30% or more of their income from thermal coal”.
Area focus
Yet, Stratistics MRC’s prediction of Asia-Pacific coal market growth resonates with other indicators for the field. BP predicted that coal would likely stay the dominant energy source in Asia as late as 2040, while the Australian Bureau of Statistics said that Australia’s coal mining industry increased capital expenditure by 20% in 2017-18 to $3.5bn. However, analysts are split on how fast the planet’s largest coal consumer, China, will move away from the commodity. According to official figures, its coal consumption went up just 0.4% last year.
However, BHP, despite feeling that coal is set to “progressively lose competitiveness to renewables on a newbuild basis in the developed world and in China”, predicts that the crossover point will not be reached until the end of the next decade and says that coal power “is expected to retain competitiveness in India and other populous emerging markets for a much-longer time”.
As for the US, it was reported at the end of last month that US President Donald Trump was pushing forward with his endeavours to revive the US coal mining sector and that the Environmental Protection Agency claimed it was planning to repeal previous president Barack Obama’s Clean Power Plan, relaxing coal-fired power plant regulation. US coal miners like Peabody will no doubt be pleased by this shift in emphasis — its shares are up by 7% in the year to date, having reportedly been boosted by President Trump’s coal-supporting efforts.
Source: The Baltic Briefing
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Monday, 01 October 18
A NO-DEAL BREXIT WILL UNDOUBTEDLY HAVE CONSEQUENCES FOR IMPORTERS AND EXPORTERS - KATE JONES, THE BALTIC BRIEFING
If you live in the UK, you might be finding it difficult to get away from the Brexit debate. “Hard Brexit”, “soft Brexit”, ...
Friday, 28 September 18
INDONESIA 2018 COAL OUTPUT TARGET NOW AROUND 507 MLN T - ENERGY MINISTRY : REUTERS
Indonesia has increased its 2018 coal production target to around 507 million tonnes from a previous target of 485 million tonnes, the Energy Minis ...
Friday, 28 September 18
FITCH RATINGS: METALLURGICAL COAL MINERS MAY CURB COSTS AS PRICES SLIP
Strong cost inflation in the global metallurgical coal sector suggests that miners may focus on cost controls as prices decline from their current ...
Wednesday, 26 September 18
IS YOUR CHARTER PARTY READY FOR 2020? - METTE KRONHOLM FRAENDE, BIMCO
As the deadline for the IMO’s global low-sulphur fuel requirements fast approaches, it is necessary to carefully check the bunker clauses in ...
Wednesday, 26 September 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE ILIOPOULOS
Despite the fact that the dry bulk SnP market saw an admittedly busy summer season, there is a noticeable slowdown in activity during the past thre ...
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- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Australian Coal Association
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- The University of Queensland
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
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