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Tuesday, 18 September 18
COOLING OUTLOOK FOR COAL - KATE JONES
.jpg) At a time of increasing focus on the renewables market as the world seeks to clean up its act to prevent climate change, what is the outlook like for coal? If an August report from Statistics Market Research Consulting (Stratistics MRC) is anything to go by, the answer to that question appears to be, ‘not as bad as one might fear’.
The report, Coal Industry – Global Market Outlook (2017-2026), forecasts the global coal market to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 12.5% from 2017 to 2026 — and hit $34.65m by the latter year. An enlarging manufacturing base, rising economic growth and increasing electricity demand are some of the key factors propelling the growth, according to the study, though the report did claim that price instability is restricting market enlargement. Furthermore, the world coal market accounted for $11.93m last year. Based on geography, growth in the market during 2017-2026 is anticipated for the Asia-Pacific region —several nations in the area, such as China and Japan, lack energy resources and are therefore importing to meet requirements.
The world of the product
However, this positive picture stands somewhat alone. At the end of August, it was reported that a push to lessen the development of coal mines, as well as growing investor pressure to divest from fossil fuels, is generating a mining industry division between businesses leaving the sector and companies vowing to stay in it. Banks that have reportedly brought lending for new coal mines to a halt include Deutsche Bank and the Royal Bank of Scotland, while new project spending has dropped 80%, from $10bn in 2012 to $2.2bn this year. This trend, along with a government-led campaign in China to cut supply of domestic coal to reduce pollution, has made the coal price almost double over the last three years — to trade at $113 a tonne.
But some companies are staying in the industry or enlarging their presence. For the world’s biggest miner, BHP, there is confidence in coal’s staying power.
“The world, rightly or wrongly, is going to be using a lot of thermal coal,” claimed Peter Beaven, BHP’s chief financial officer, referring to the kind of coal used in power stations. The company has no plans to sell its coal assets — and neither does the biggest producer of seaborne coal for export globally, Glencore. In fact, Glencore is in expansion mode. This year, it purchased a 49% share in a Yancoal-operated thermal coal project in New South Wales in Australia and bought Rio Tinto’s Hail Creek coal mine in Queensland, also in Australia, for $1.7bn. The company reportedly made $2bn from its coal division in H1 2018, with the business estimating that at current prices, coal will be its largest earnings driver for the full year. Macquarie Group analysts describes the organisation as “slowly stepping into the breach, quietly consolidating its position in an unpopular sub-sector of the mining industry”.
However, not all coal miners have had such good fortune. In March, Rio Tinto sold its last coal mine to EMR Capital and Adaro Energy for $2.25bn, while South32 plans on selling its South African thermal coal assets to local investors later in 2018. South32 chief executive Graham Kerr has reportedly argued that thermal coal is increasingly becoming a focus of meetings with investors.
“Every six months, they tell you they can’t invest in you,” he noted.
What’s more, coal could soon find itself eclipsed by renewables. Fitch Solutions said at the end of August that renewable energy will play an increasingly important role in powering mining operations across the globe over the coming years, while Alexa Capital co-founder Gerard Reid has said that because wind and solar power have already become less expensive than coal-fired power in many parts of the world, a renewables move could happen faster than many believe.
The mixed messages mirror the division among investors and analysts over coal: while both the Church of England Pensions Board and BMO Global Asset Management have both turned away from supporting coal, Norway’s $1tr sovereign wealth fund (which owns Glencore shares), has said it would only exclude companies “which themselves, or through entities they control, derive 30% or more of their income from thermal coal”.
Area focus
Yet, Stratistics MRC’s prediction of Asia-Pacific coal market growth resonates with other indicators for the field. BP predicted that coal would likely stay the dominant energy source in Asia as late as 2040, while the Australian Bureau of Statistics said that Australia’s coal mining industry increased capital expenditure by 20% in 2017-18 to $3.5bn. However, analysts are split on how fast the planet’s largest coal consumer, China, will move away from the commodity. According to official figures, its coal consumption went up just 0.4% last year.
However, BHP, despite feeling that coal is set to “progressively lose competitiveness to renewables on a newbuild basis in the developed world and in China”, predicts that the crossover point will not be reached until the end of the next decade and says that coal power “is expected to retain competitiveness in India and other populous emerging markets for a much-longer time”.
As for the US, it was reported at the end of last month that US President Donald Trump was pushing forward with his endeavours to revive the US coal mining sector and that the Environmental Protection Agency claimed it was planning to repeal previous president Barack Obama’s Clean Power Plan, relaxing coal-fired power plant regulation. US coal miners like Peabody will no doubt be pleased by this shift in emphasis — its shares are up by 7% in the year to date, having reportedly been boosted by President Trump’s coal-supporting efforts.
Source: The Baltic Briefing
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Wednesday, 03 October 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
The bunker fuel supply and availability landscape is close to its transformation with the enforcement of the IMO’s global 0.5% fuel Sulphur c ...
Tuesday, 02 October 18
PANAMAX: A FURTHER RISE ACROSS ALL MAIN ROUTES THIS WEEK - ALLIED
Capesize
Finally an upward recovery was in sight in the spot market the past few days, after the prolonged negative pressure noted the weeks pr ...
Tuesday, 02 October 18
THE PRICE OF OIL CONTINUES ITS CLIMB AMIDST A SERIES OF CONCERNS REGARDING SUPPLY CONSTRAINTS - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
It has been a busy week for oil traders as the price of oil continues its climb amidst a series of concerns regarding supply constraints.
...
Tuesday, 02 October 18
INDONESIA GETS READY TO MEET INCREASED COAL DEMAND FROM CHINA, FREIGHT TO RESPOND - MIKAL BOE
Indonesian coal suppliers have increased their domestic coal production target by 4.5 percent from a previous 485 million tonnes to a massive 507 m ...
Monday, 01 October 18
SUPRAMAX: A 56,000 DWT FIXED DELIVERY FOR A SURABAYA TRIP WITH REDELIVERY TO WEST COAST INDIA AT $13,500 - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A stop-start market for the big ships with many expectations and few fulfilled. Holidays curtailed trading early in the week, but the ...
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- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- The University of Queensland
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
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