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Tuesday, 18 September 18
COOLING OUTLOOK FOR COAL - KATE JONES
.jpg) At a time of increasing focus on the renewables market as the world seeks to clean up its act to prevent climate change, what is the outlook like for coal? If an August report from Statistics Market Research Consulting (Stratistics MRC) is anything to go by, the answer to that question appears to be, ‘not as bad as one might fear’.
The report, Coal Industry – Global Market Outlook (2017-2026), forecasts the global coal market to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 12.5% from 2017 to 2026 — and hit $34.65m by the latter year. An enlarging manufacturing base, rising economic growth and increasing electricity demand are some of the key factors propelling the growth, according to the study, though the report did claim that price instability is restricting market enlargement. Furthermore, the world coal market accounted for $11.93m last year. Based on geography, growth in the market during 2017-2026 is anticipated for the Asia-Pacific region —several nations in the area, such as China and Japan, lack energy resources and are therefore importing to meet requirements.
The world of the product
However, this positive picture stands somewhat alone. At the end of August, it was reported that a push to lessen the development of coal mines, as well as growing investor pressure to divest from fossil fuels, is generating a mining industry division between businesses leaving the sector and companies vowing to stay in it. Banks that have reportedly brought lending for new coal mines to a halt include Deutsche Bank and the Royal Bank of Scotland, while new project spending has dropped 80%, from $10bn in 2012 to $2.2bn this year. This trend, along with a government-led campaign in China to cut supply of domestic coal to reduce pollution, has made the coal price almost double over the last three years — to trade at $113 a tonne.
But some companies are staying in the industry or enlarging their presence. For the world’s biggest miner, BHP, there is confidence in coal’s staying power.
“The world, rightly or wrongly, is going to be using a lot of thermal coal,” claimed Peter Beaven, BHP’s chief financial officer, referring to the kind of coal used in power stations. The company has no plans to sell its coal assets — and neither does the biggest producer of seaborne coal for export globally, Glencore. In fact, Glencore is in expansion mode. This year, it purchased a 49% share in a Yancoal-operated thermal coal project in New South Wales in Australia and bought Rio Tinto’s Hail Creek coal mine in Queensland, also in Australia, for $1.7bn. The company reportedly made $2bn from its coal division in H1 2018, with the business estimating that at current prices, coal will be its largest earnings driver for the full year. Macquarie Group analysts describes the organisation as “slowly stepping into the breach, quietly consolidating its position in an unpopular sub-sector of the mining industry”.
However, not all coal miners have had such good fortune. In March, Rio Tinto sold its last coal mine to EMR Capital and Adaro Energy for $2.25bn, while South32 plans on selling its South African thermal coal assets to local investors later in 2018. South32 chief executive Graham Kerr has reportedly argued that thermal coal is increasingly becoming a focus of meetings with investors.
“Every six months, they tell you they can’t invest in you,” he noted.
What’s more, coal could soon find itself eclipsed by renewables. Fitch Solutions said at the end of August that renewable energy will play an increasingly important role in powering mining operations across the globe over the coming years, while Alexa Capital co-founder Gerard Reid has said that because wind and solar power have already become less expensive than coal-fired power in many parts of the world, a renewables move could happen faster than many believe.
The mixed messages mirror the division among investors and analysts over coal: while both the Church of England Pensions Board and BMO Global Asset Management have both turned away from supporting coal, Norway’s $1tr sovereign wealth fund (which owns Glencore shares), has said it would only exclude companies “which themselves, or through entities they control, derive 30% or more of their income from thermal coal”.
Area focus
Yet, Stratistics MRC’s prediction of Asia-Pacific coal market growth resonates with other indicators for the field. BP predicted that coal would likely stay the dominant energy source in Asia as late as 2040, while the Australian Bureau of Statistics said that Australia’s coal mining industry increased capital expenditure by 20% in 2017-18 to $3.5bn. However, analysts are split on how fast the planet’s largest coal consumer, China, will move away from the commodity. According to official figures, its coal consumption went up just 0.4% last year.
However, BHP, despite feeling that coal is set to “progressively lose competitiveness to renewables on a newbuild basis in the developed world and in China”, predicts that the crossover point will not be reached until the end of the next decade and says that coal power “is expected to retain competitiveness in India and other populous emerging markets for a much-longer time”.
As for the US, it was reported at the end of last month that US President Donald Trump was pushing forward with his endeavours to revive the US coal mining sector and that the Environmental Protection Agency claimed it was planning to repeal previous president Barack Obama’s Clean Power Plan, relaxing coal-fired power plant regulation. US coal miners like Peabody will no doubt be pleased by this shift in emphasis — its shares are up by 7% in the year to date, having reportedly been boosted by President Trump’s coal-supporting efforts.
Source: The Baltic Briefing
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Wednesday, 03 October 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
The bunker fuel supply and availability landscape is close to its transformation with the enforcement of the IMO’s global 0.5% fuel Sulphur c ...
Tuesday, 02 October 18
PANAMAX: A FURTHER RISE ACROSS ALL MAIN ROUTES THIS WEEK - ALLIED
Capesize
Finally an upward recovery was in sight in the spot market the past few days, after the prolonged negative pressure noted the weeks pr ...
Tuesday, 02 October 18
THE PRICE OF OIL CONTINUES ITS CLIMB AMIDST A SERIES OF CONCERNS REGARDING SUPPLY CONSTRAINTS - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
It has been a busy week for oil traders as the price of oil continues its climb amidst a series of concerns regarding supply constraints.
...
Tuesday, 02 October 18
INDONESIA GETS READY TO MEET INCREASED COAL DEMAND FROM CHINA, FREIGHT TO RESPOND - MIKAL BOE
Indonesian coal suppliers have increased their domestic coal production target by 4.5 percent from a previous 485 million tonnes to a massive 507 m ...
Monday, 01 October 18
SUPRAMAX: A 56,000 DWT FIXED DELIVERY FOR A SURABAYA TRIP WITH REDELIVERY TO WEST COAST INDIA AT $13,500 - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A stop-start market for the big ships with many expectations and few fulfilled. Holidays curtailed trading early in the week, but the ...
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- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- The University of Queensland
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
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