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Tuesday, 18 September 18
COOLING OUTLOOK FOR COAL - KATE JONES
.jpg) At a time of increasing focus on the renewables market as the world seeks to clean up its act to prevent climate change, what is the outlook like for coal? If an August report from Statistics Market Research Consulting (Stratistics MRC) is anything to go by, the answer to that question appears to be, ‘not as bad as one might fear’.
The report, Coal Industry – Global Market Outlook (2017-2026), forecasts the global coal market to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 12.5% from 2017 to 2026 — and hit $34.65m by the latter year. An enlarging manufacturing base, rising economic growth and increasing electricity demand are some of the key factors propelling the growth, according to the study, though the report did claim that price instability is restricting market enlargement. Furthermore, the world coal market accounted for $11.93m last year. Based on geography, growth in the market during 2017-2026 is anticipated for the Asia-Pacific region —several nations in the area, such as China and Japan, lack energy resources and are therefore importing to meet requirements.
The world of the product
However, this positive picture stands somewhat alone. At the end of August, it was reported that a push to lessen the development of coal mines, as well as growing investor pressure to divest from fossil fuels, is generating a mining industry division between businesses leaving the sector and companies vowing to stay in it. Banks that have reportedly brought lending for new coal mines to a halt include Deutsche Bank and the Royal Bank of Scotland, while new project spending has dropped 80%, from $10bn in 2012 to $2.2bn this year. This trend, along with a government-led campaign in China to cut supply of domestic coal to reduce pollution, has made the coal price almost double over the last three years — to trade at $113 a tonne.
But some companies are staying in the industry or enlarging their presence. For the world’s biggest miner, BHP, there is confidence in coal’s staying power.
“The world, rightly or wrongly, is going to be using a lot of thermal coal,” claimed Peter Beaven, BHP’s chief financial officer, referring to the kind of coal used in power stations. The company has no plans to sell its coal assets — and neither does the biggest producer of seaborne coal for export globally, Glencore. In fact, Glencore is in expansion mode. This year, it purchased a 49% share in a Yancoal-operated thermal coal project in New South Wales in Australia and bought Rio Tinto’s Hail Creek coal mine in Queensland, also in Australia, for $1.7bn. The company reportedly made $2bn from its coal division in H1 2018, with the business estimating that at current prices, coal will be its largest earnings driver for the full year. Macquarie Group analysts describes the organisation as “slowly stepping into the breach, quietly consolidating its position in an unpopular sub-sector of the mining industry”.
However, not all coal miners have had such good fortune. In March, Rio Tinto sold its last coal mine to EMR Capital and Adaro Energy for $2.25bn, while South32 plans on selling its South African thermal coal assets to local investors later in 2018. South32 chief executive Graham Kerr has reportedly argued that thermal coal is increasingly becoming a focus of meetings with investors.
“Every six months, they tell you they can’t invest in you,” he noted.
What’s more, coal could soon find itself eclipsed by renewables. Fitch Solutions said at the end of August that renewable energy will play an increasingly important role in powering mining operations across the globe over the coming years, while Alexa Capital co-founder Gerard Reid has said that because wind and solar power have already become less expensive than coal-fired power in many parts of the world, a renewables move could happen faster than many believe.
The mixed messages mirror the division among investors and analysts over coal: while both the Church of England Pensions Board and BMO Global Asset Management have both turned away from supporting coal, Norway’s $1tr sovereign wealth fund (which owns Glencore shares), has said it would only exclude companies “which themselves, or through entities they control, derive 30% or more of their income from thermal coal”.
Area focus
Yet, Stratistics MRC’s prediction of Asia-Pacific coal market growth resonates with other indicators for the field. BP predicted that coal would likely stay the dominant energy source in Asia as late as 2040, while the Australian Bureau of Statistics said that Australia’s coal mining industry increased capital expenditure by 20% in 2017-18 to $3.5bn. However, analysts are split on how fast the planet’s largest coal consumer, China, will move away from the commodity. According to official figures, its coal consumption went up just 0.4% last year.
However, BHP, despite feeling that coal is set to “progressively lose competitiveness to renewables on a newbuild basis in the developed world and in China”, predicts that the crossover point will not be reached until the end of the next decade and says that coal power “is expected to retain competitiveness in India and other populous emerging markets for a much-longer time”.
As for the US, it was reported at the end of last month that US President Donald Trump was pushing forward with his endeavours to revive the US coal mining sector and that the Environmental Protection Agency claimed it was planning to repeal previous president Barack Obama’s Clean Power Plan, relaxing coal-fired power plant regulation. US coal miners like Peabody will no doubt be pleased by this shift in emphasis — its shares are up by 7% in the year to date, having reportedly been boosted by President Trump’s coal-supporting efforts.
Source: The Baltic Briefing
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Wednesday, 03 October 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
The bunker fuel supply and availability landscape is close to its transformation with the enforcement of the IMO’s global 0.5% fuel Sulphur c ...
Tuesday, 02 October 18
PANAMAX: A FURTHER RISE ACROSS ALL MAIN ROUTES THIS WEEK - ALLIED
Capesize
Finally an upward recovery was in sight in the spot market the past few days, after the prolonged negative pressure noted the weeks pr ...
Tuesday, 02 October 18
THE PRICE OF OIL CONTINUES ITS CLIMB AMIDST A SERIES OF CONCERNS REGARDING SUPPLY CONSTRAINTS - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
It has been a busy week for oil traders as the price of oil continues its climb amidst a series of concerns regarding supply constraints.
...
Tuesday, 02 October 18
INDONESIA GETS READY TO MEET INCREASED COAL DEMAND FROM CHINA, FREIGHT TO RESPOND - MIKAL BOE
Indonesian coal suppliers have increased their domestic coal production target by 4.5 percent from a previous 485 million tonnes to a massive 507 m ...
Monday, 01 October 18
SUPRAMAX: A 56,000 DWT FIXED DELIVERY FOR A SURABAYA TRIP WITH REDELIVERY TO WEST COAST INDIA AT $13,500 - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A stop-start market for the big ships with many expectations and few fulfilled. Holidays curtailed trading early in the week, but the ...
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- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- The University of Queensland
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Australian Coal Association
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- PTC India Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
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