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Tuesday, 18 September 18
COOLING OUTLOOK FOR COAL - KATE JONES
.jpg) At a time of increasing focus on the renewables market as the world seeks to clean up its act to prevent climate change, what is the outlook like for coal? If an August report from Statistics Market Research Consulting (Stratistics MRC) is anything to go by, the answer to that question appears to be, ‘not as bad as one might fear’.
The report, Coal Industry – Global Market Outlook (2017-2026), forecasts the global coal market to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 12.5% from 2017 to 2026 — and hit $34.65m by the latter year. An enlarging manufacturing base, rising economic growth and increasing electricity demand are some of the key factors propelling the growth, according to the study, though the report did claim that price instability is restricting market enlargement. Furthermore, the world coal market accounted for $11.93m last year. Based on geography, growth in the market during 2017-2026 is anticipated for the Asia-Pacific region —several nations in the area, such as China and Japan, lack energy resources and are therefore importing to meet requirements.
The world of the product
However, this positive picture stands somewhat alone. At the end of August, it was reported that a push to lessen the development of coal mines, as well as growing investor pressure to divest from fossil fuels, is generating a mining industry division between businesses leaving the sector and companies vowing to stay in it. Banks that have reportedly brought lending for new coal mines to a halt include Deutsche Bank and the Royal Bank of Scotland, while new project spending has dropped 80%, from $10bn in 2012 to $2.2bn this year. This trend, along with a government-led campaign in China to cut supply of domestic coal to reduce pollution, has made the coal price almost double over the last three years — to trade at $113 a tonne.
But some companies are staying in the industry or enlarging their presence. For the world’s biggest miner, BHP, there is confidence in coal’s staying power.
“The world, rightly or wrongly, is going to be using a lot of thermal coal,” claimed Peter Beaven, BHP’s chief financial officer, referring to the kind of coal used in power stations. The company has no plans to sell its coal assets — and neither does the biggest producer of seaborne coal for export globally, Glencore. In fact, Glencore is in expansion mode. This year, it purchased a 49% share in a Yancoal-operated thermal coal project in New South Wales in Australia and bought Rio Tinto’s Hail Creek coal mine in Queensland, also in Australia, for $1.7bn. The company reportedly made $2bn from its coal division in H1 2018, with the business estimating that at current prices, coal will be its largest earnings driver for the full year. Macquarie Group analysts describes the organisation as “slowly stepping into the breach, quietly consolidating its position in an unpopular sub-sector of the mining industry”.
However, not all coal miners have had such good fortune. In March, Rio Tinto sold its last coal mine to EMR Capital and Adaro Energy for $2.25bn, while South32 plans on selling its South African thermal coal assets to local investors later in 2018. South32 chief executive Graham Kerr has reportedly argued that thermal coal is increasingly becoming a focus of meetings with investors.
“Every six months, they tell you they can’t invest in you,” he noted.
What’s more, coal could soon find itself eclipsed by renewables. Fitch Solutions said at the end of August that renewable energy will play an increasingly important role in powering mining operations across the globe over the coming years, while Alexa Capital co-founder Gerard Reid has said that because wind and solar power have already become less expensive than coal-fired power in many parts of the world, a renewables move could happen faster than many believe.
The mixed messages mirror the division among investors and analysts over coal: while both the Church of England Pensions Board and BMO Global Asset Management have both turned away from supporting coal, Norway’s $1tr sovereign wealth fund (which owns Glencore shares), has said it would only exclude companies “which themselves, or through entities they control, derive 30% or more of their income from thermal coal”.
Area focus
Yet, Stratistics MRC’s prediction of Asia-Pacific coal market growth resonates with other indicators for the field. BP predicted that coal would likely stay the dominant energy source in Asia as late as 2040, while the Australian Bureau of Statistics said that Australia’s coal mining industry increased capital expenditure by 20% in 2017-18 to $3.5bn. However, analysts are split on how fast the planet’s largest coal consumer, China, will move away from the commodity. According to official figures, its coal consumption went up just 0.4% last year.
However, BHP, despite feeling that coal is set to “progressively lose competitiveness to renewables on a newbuild basis in the developed world and in China”, predicts that the crossover point will not be reached until the end of the next decade and says that coal power “is expected to retain competitiveness in India and other populous emerging markets for a much-longer time”.
As for the US, it was reported at the end of last month that US President Donald Trump was pushing forward with his endeavours to revive the US coal mining sector and that the Environmental Protection Agency claimed it was planning to repeal previous president Barack Obama’s Clean Power Plan, relaxing coal-fired power plant regulation. US coal miners like Peabody will no doubt be pleased by this shift in emphasis — its shares are up by 7% in the year to date, having reportedly been boosted by President Trump’s coal-supporting efforts.
Source: The Baltic Briefing
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Wednesday, 17 October 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
In the last three months approximately 72 tankers changed hands involving ships larger than 33kdwt up to VLCC. 43 of those vessels had to do ...
Tuesday, 16 October 18
A PRACTICAL OVERVIEW OF THE IMO 2020 SULPHUR CAP - CLYDE&CO
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
With less than eighteen months before Regulation 14.1.3 of Annex VI of the MARPOL Convention comes into effect, there are ...
Saturday, 13 October 18
SUPRAMAX: SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY IN THE INDIAN OCEAN WAS EVIDENT AND RATES JUMPED - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A sharp reversal of fortunes for the big ships as the week closed after a depressed beginning. To start with drops were sudden, with t ...
Wednesday, 10 October 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - ILIAS M. LALAOUNIS
During the end of last month the BHSI was hovering around 630 points, while the last observed sale on a 10-yr old Japanese Handy was the M/V Van Im ...
Monday, 08 October 18
INDONESIAN THERMAL COAL PRICE REFERENCE FELL 3.74% IN OCTOBER 2018
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal ...
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- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
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- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
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- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
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- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
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- VISA Power Limited - India
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- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Australian Coal Association
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
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