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Friday, 14 September 18
10 YEARS ON FROM LEHMAN, HOW IS SHIPPING'S "HANGOVER"? - CLARKSONS RESEARCH
 On 15th September 2008, the collapse of Lehman Brothers crystallised the financial crisis and the onset the worst economic downturn for a century. To a shipping industry used to extreme cycles but transitioning to recession with rapid trade collapse and a huge newbuilding orderbook the initial shock was severe and the “hangover” prolonged. This week’s Analysis compares the situation almost ten years to the day.
Bye Bye Boom… Even for an industry well used to severe cycles (and with warning signals if you looked hard enough), after five years of freight rates sustained at levels not seen for a century, the transition to recession after Lehman was dramatic. The most catastrophic collapse was in Capesize. From surging to a frenzied $300,000/day in June 2008 (fanned by a $180/t iron ore price, stockpiling and congestion) earnings collapsed to $6,000/day in October and $2,000/day in November. Initially the tanker market was more stable, helped by single hull conversion and trader storage, while the container market saw 12% of the fleet laid up by late-2009.
Not The 80s Revisited? As our graph shows, unsurprisingly rates and prices today sit well below the week preceding Lehman. But although the shipping recession has felt prolonged, it’s been far from a “dead” decade with surprising upside at times. Even in 2009, Capesize earnings rose to $70,000/day as China’s steel output yo-yoed. There were also spikes in LNG (2012), LPG (2014-5), tankers (2015) and offshore (2013-14); and heavy (over!) newbuild ordering (2010, 2013) and record years for S&P (2017), so plenty of business has been done, helped by low interest rates. Arguably the container sector has had the most pain (but it’s a close call, and spare a thought for the bankers?).
Shipyard Surge…
Although shipyard output has dropped by 16% over the ten years (to 80m dwt), that’s far from the whole story! Having built up a record backlog (c.650m dwt, a daunting 55% of the fleet) and at prices that “on paper” were very profitable, the unravelling of the financial and contractual complexities became an appallingly complex task (especially with 30% of the capacity involved “greenfield”, and financial structures such as the KG). With analysts tracking cancellation and slippage closely, shipyard production eventually peaked in 2011 (the fastest output growth in peace time). At times fleet growth has felt relentless (peaking at 9% in 2011, a more helpful 2.6% in 2018) as shipbuilding has worked through its overcapacity. Although demolition has doubled in the ten years since, the world fleet is still a staggering 67% larger today (1.96m dwt!) than at the onset of the financial crisis.
Trading Up?
The immediate sea trade deterioration was severe, with volumes declining for only the second time in 30 years in 2009 (by 4%, with oil down 3%, dry bulk down 3% and containers down 9%). Trends since have been more encouraging, with a 38% increase (exactly the same % as GDP growth) to 12.0bn tonnes (big winners include dry bulk (+1.7bt), supported by a series of Chinese fiscal stimulus and infrastructure investments). After a “tough” ten years, that’s a more positive note to end on! Have a better decade!
Source: Clarksons Research
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Monday, 01 October 18
A NO-DEAL BREXIT WILL UNDOUBTEDLY HAVE CONSEQUENCES FOR IMPORTERS AND EXPORTERS - KATE JONES, THE BALTIC BRIEFING
If you live in the UK, you might be finding it difficult to get away from the Brexit debate. “Hard Brexit”, “soft Brexit”, ...
Friday, 28 September 18
INDONESIA 2018 COAL OUTPUT TARGET NOW AROUND 507 MLN T - ENERGY MINISTRY : REUTERS
Indonesia has increased its 2018 coal production target to around 507 million tonnes from a previous target of 485 million tonnes, the Energy Minis ...
Friday, 28 September 18
FITCH RATINGS: METALLURGICAL COAL MINERS MAY CURB COSTS AS PRICES SLIP
Strong cost inflation in the global metallurgical coal sector suggests that miners may focus on cost controls as prices decline from their current ...
Wednesday, 26 September 18
IS YOUR CHARTER PARTY READY FOR 2020? - METTE KRONHOLM FRAENDE, BIMCO
As the deadline for the IMO’s global low-sulphur fuel requirements fast approaches, it is necessary to carefully check the bunker clauses in ...
Wednesday, 26 September 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE ILIOPOULOS
Despite the fact that the dry bulk SnP market saw an admittedly busy summer season, there is a noticeable slowdown in activity during the past thre ...
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Showing 1606 to 1610 news of total 6871 |
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- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The University of Queensland
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
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