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Friday, 14 September 18
10 YEARS ON FROM LEHMAN, HOW IS SHIPPING'S "HANGOVER"? - CLARKSONS RESEARCH
 On 15th September 2008, the collapse of Lehman Brothers crystallised the financial crisis and the onset the worst economic downturn for a century. To a shipping industry used to extreme cycles but transitioning to recession with rapid trade collapse and a huge newbuilding orderbook the initial shock was severe and the “hangover” prolonged. This week’s Analysis compares the situation almost ten years to the day.
Bye Bye Boom… Even for an industry well used to severe cycles (and with warning signals if you looked hard enough), after five years of freight rates sustained at levels not seen for a century, the transition to recession after Lehman was dramatic. The most catastrophic collapse was in Capesize. From surging to a frenzied $300,000/day in June 2008 (fanned by a $180/t iron ore price, stockpiling and congestion) earnings collapsed to $6,000/day in October and $2,000/day in November. Initially the tanker market was more stable, helped by single hull conversion and trader storage, while the container market saw 12% of the fleet laid up by late-2009.
Not The 80s Revisited? As our graph shows, unsurprisingly rates and prices today sit well below the week preceding Lehman. But although the shipping recession has felt prolonged, it’s been far from a “dead” decade with surprising upside at times. Even in 2009, Capesize earnings rose to $70,000/day as China’s steel output yo-yoed. There were also spikes in LNG (2012), LPG (2014-5), tankers (2015) and offshore (2013-14); and heavy (over!) newbuild ordering (2010, 2013) and record years for S&P (2017), so plenty of business has been done, helped by low interest rates. Arguably the container sector has had the most pain (but it’s a close call, and spare a thought for the bankers?).
Shipyard Surge…
Although shipyard output has dropped by 16% over the ten years (to 80m dwt), that’s far from the whole story! Having built up a record backlog (c.650m dwt, a daunting 55% of the fleet) and at prices that “on paper” were very profitable, the unravelling of the financial and contractual complexities became an appallingly complex task (especially with 30% of the capacity involved “greenfield”, and financial structures such as the KG). With analysts tracking cancellation and slippage closely, shipyard production eventually peaked in 2011 (the fastest output growth in peace time). At times fleet growth has felt relentless (peaking at 9% in 2011, a more helpful 2.6% in 2018) as shipbuilding has worked through its overcapacity. Although demolition has doubled in the ten years since, the world fleet is still a staggering 67% larger today (1.96m dwt!) than at the onset of the financial crisis.
Trading Up?
The immediate sea trade deterioration was severe, with volumes declining for only the second time in 30 years in 2009 (by 4%, with oil down 3%, dry bulk down 3% and containers down 9%). Trends since have been more encouraging, with a 38% increase (exactly the same % as GDP growth) to 12.0bn tonnes (big winners include dry bulk (+1.7bt), supported by a series of Chinese fiscal stimulus and infrastructure investments). After a “tough” ten years, that’s a more positive note to end on! Have a better decade!
Source: Clarksons Research
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Monday, 17 September 18
GLENCORE RETURNS TO JAPAN COAL TALKS SCUPPERED BY HIGH PRICES - BLOOMBERG
Mining giant Glencore Plc and Japanese utilities have resumed thermal coal supply negotiations, restarting talks that fell apart earlier this year ...
Monday, 17 September 18
SMALL PERCENTAGE OF THE WORLD FLEET WILL FIT SCRUBBERS - FORECASTS : METTE KRONHOLM FRAENDE
In recent months, there have been numerous reports of a strong pick-up in demand for scrubbers. On 1 January 2020, however, the number of ships fit ...
Saturday, 15 September 18
POWERING SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW EMISSION COAL TECHNOLOGIES - WCA
In its 5th Strategic Energy Plan this year (2018), the Japanese Cabinet recognised coal as an important energy resource, necessary for the country& ...
Thursday, 13 September 18
OPEC SEES SLOWER 2019 OIL DEMAND GROWTH, WARNS ON ECONOMY
Crude Oil Price Movements
In August, the OPEC Reference Basket declined by $1.01 m-o-m, settling at $72.26/b. Crude oil futures were also down ...
Thursday, 13 September 18
SUPRAMAX: INDO-INDIA COAL RUN WAS FIXED CLOSE TO $16000 ON ULTRA - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
Rates took a further drop in the beginning of the week, to later find a floor around mid-week reaching mid USD 7 level for c5 and just ...
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Showing 1616 to 1620 news of total 6871 |
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- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Planning Commission, India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
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