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Friday, 14 September 18
10 YEARS ON FROM LEHMAN, HOW IS SHIPPING'S "HANGOVER"? - CLARKSONS RESEARCH
 On 15th September 2008, the collapse of Lehman Brothers crystallised the financial crisis and the onset the worst economic downturn for a century. To a shipping industry used to extreme cycles but transitioning to recession with rapid trade collapse and a huge newbuilding orderbook the initial shock was severe and the “hangover” prolonged. This week’s Analysis compares the situation almost ten years to the day.
Bye Bye Boom… Even for an industry well used to severe cycles (and with warning signals if you looked hard enough), after five years of freight rates sustained at levels not seen for a century, the transition to recession after Lehman was dramatic. The most catastrophic collapse was in Capesize. From surging to a frenzied $300,000/day in June 2008 (fanned by a $180/t iron ore price, stockpiling and congestion) earnings collapsed to $6,000/day in October and $2,000/day in November. Initially the tanker market was more stable, helped by single hull conversion and trader storage, while the container market saw 12% of the fleet laid up by late-2009.
Not The 80s Revisited? As our graph shows, unsurprisingly rates and prices today sit well below the week preceding Lehman. But although the shipping recession has felt prolonged, it’s been far from a “dead” decade with surprising upside at times. Even in 2009, Capesize earnings rose to $70,000/day as China’s steel output yo-yoed. There were also spikes in LNG (2012), LPG (2014-5), tankers (2015) and offshore (2013-14); and heavy (over!) newbuild ordering (2010, 2013) and record years for S&P (2017), so plenty of business has been done, helped by low interest rates. Arguably the container sector has had the most pain (but it’s a close call, and spare a thought for the bankers?).
Shipyard Surge…
Although shipyard output has dropped by 16% over the ten years (to 80m dwt), that’s far from the whole story! Having built up a record backlog (c.650m dwt, a daunting 55% of the fleet) and at prices that “on paper” were very profitable, the unravelling of the financial and contractual complexities became an appallingly complex task (especially with 30% of the capacity involved “greenfield”, and financial structures such as the KG). With analysts tracking cancellation and slippage closely, shipyard production eventually peaked in 2011 (the fastest output growth in peace time). At times fleet growth has felt relentless (peaking at 9% in 2011, a more helpful 2.6% in 2018) as shipbuilding has worked through its overcapacity. Although demolition has doubled in the ten years since, the world fleet is still a staggering 67% larger today (1.96m dwt!) than at the onset of the financial crisis.
Trading Up?
The immediate sea trade deterioration was severe, with volumes declining for only the second time in 30 years in 2009 (by 4%, with oil down 3%, dry bulk down 3% and containers down 9%). Trends since have been more encouraging, with a 38% increase (exactly the same % as GDP growth) to 12.0bn tonnes (big winners include dry bulk (+1.7bt), supported by a series of Chinese fiscal stimulus and infrastructure investments). After a “tough” ten years, that’s a more positive note to end on! Have a better decade!
Source: Clarksons Research
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Monday, 17 September 18
GLENCORE RETURNS TO JAPAN COAL TALKS SCUPPERED BY HIGH PRICES - BLOOMBERG
Mining giant Glencore Plc and Japanese utilities have resumed thermal coal supply negotiations, restarting talks that fell apart earlier this year ...
Monday, 17 September 18
SMALL PERCENTAGE OF THE WORLD FLEET WILL FIT SCRUBBERS - FORECASTS : METTE KRONHOLM FRAENDE
In recent months, there have been numerous reports of a strong pick-up in demand for scrubbers. On 1 January 2020, however, the number of ships fit ...
Saturday, 15 September 18
POWERING SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW EMISSION COAL TECHNOLOGIES - WCA
In its 5th Strategic Energy Plan this year (2018), the Japanese Cabinet recognised coal as an important energy resource, necessary for the country& ...
Thursday, 13 September 18
OPEC SEES SLOWER 2019 OIL DEMAND GROWTH, WARNS ON ECONOMY
Crude Oil Price Movements
In August, the OPEC Reference Basket declined by $1.01 m-o-m, settling at $72.26/b. Crude oil futures were also down ...
Thursday, 13 September 18
SUPRAMAX: INDO-INDIA COAL RUN WAS FIXED CLOSE TO $16000 ON ULTRA - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
Rates took a further drop in the beginning of the week, to later find a floor around mid-week reaching mid USD 7 level for c5 and just ...
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Showing 1616 to 1620 news of total 6871 |
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- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- The University of Queensland
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
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