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Friday, 14 September 18
10 YEARS ON FROM LEHMAN, HOW IS SHIPPING'S "HANGOVER"? - CLARKSONS RESEARCH
 On 15th September 2008, the collapse of Lehman Brothers crystallised the financial crisis and the onset the worst economic downturn for a century. To a shipping industry used to extreme cycles but transitioning to recession with rapid trade collapse and a huge newbuilding orderbook the initial shock was severe and the “hangover” prolonged. This week’s Analysis compares the situation almost ten years to the day.
Bye Bye Boom… Even for an industry well used to severe cycles (and with warning signals if you looked hard enough), after five years of freight rates sustained at levels not seen for a century, the transition to recession after Lehman was dramatic. The most catastrophic collapse was in Capesize. From surging to a frenzied $300,000/day in June 2008 (fanned by a $180/t iron ore price, stockpiling and congestion) earnings collapsed to $6,000/day in October and $2,000/day in November. Initially the tanker market was more stable, helped by single hull conversion and trader storage, while the container market saw 12% of the fleet laid up by late-2009.
Not The 80s Revisited? As our graph shows, unsurprisingly rates and prices today sit well below the week preceding Lehman. But although the shipping recession has felt prolonged, it’s been far from a “dead” decade with surprising upside at times. Even in 2009, Capesize earnings rose to $70,000/day as China’s steel output yo-yoed. There were also spikes in LNG (2012), LPG (2014-5), tankers (2015) and offshore (2013-14); and heavy (over!) newbuild ordering (2010, 2013) and record years for S&P (2017), so plenty of business has been done, helped by low interest rates. Arguably the container sector has had the most pain (but it’s a close call, and spare a thought for the bankers?).
Shipyard Surge…
Although shipyard output has dropped by 16% over the ten years (to 80m dwt), that’s far from the whole story! Having built up a record backlog (c.650m dwt, a daunting 55% of the fleet) and at prices that “on paper” were very profitable, the unravelling of the financial and contractual complexities became an appallingly complex task (especially with 30% of the capacity involved “greenfield”, and financial structures such as the KG). With analysts tracking cancellation and slippage closely, shipyard production eventually peaked in 2011 (the fastest output growth in peace time). At times fleet growth has felt relentless (peaking at 9% in 2011, a more helpful 2.6% in 2018) as shipbuilding has worked through its overcapacity. Although demolition has doubled in the ten years since, the world fleet is still a staggering 67% larger today (1.96m dwt!) than at the onset of the financial crisis.
Trading Up?
The immediate sea trade deterioration was severe, with volumes declining for only the second time in 30 years in 2009 (by 4%, with oil down 3%, dry bulk down 3% and containers down 9%). Trends since have been more encouraging, with a 38% increase (exactly the same % as GDP growth) to 12.0bn tonnes (big winners include dry bulk (+1.7bt), supported by a series of Chinese fiscal stimulus and infrastructure investments). After a “tough” ten years, that’s a more positive note to end on! Have a better decade!
Source: Clarksons Research
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Monday, 08 October 18
KOMIPO INVITES BIDS FOR 520,000 TONS OF COLOMBIAN ORIGIN OF 5,700 NAR COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued a tender for 520,000 MT of min. 5700 NAR coal of Colombian origin ...
Sunday, 07 October 18
SUPRAMAX: INDO-INDIA USUAL COAL RUNS WERE COVERED AT US$ 12K - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
Average daily earnings up close to 15 pct in 5 trading days, thus patience finally paying off for owners of the big ships - Chinese play ...
Sunday, 07 October 18
A CASE FOR 20/20 VISION? IMO'S LOW SULPHUR FUEL LIMIT UNDER MARPOL ANNEX VI WHICH COMES INTO FORCE ON 1ST JANUARY 2020
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The implementation of the global 0.5% sulphur cap for bunker fuel under MARPOL Annex VI in just under 18 months’ ti ...
Friday, 05 October 18
COAL PRODUCTION REACHES 64% OF 2018 TARGET : THE JAKARTA POST
National coal production up to August has already reached 311 million tons, or 64 percent of this year's total target of 485 million tons, acco ...
Wednesday, 03 October 18
VALUE OF AUSTRALIAN COAL EXPORTS TIPPED TO DECLINE SHARPLY OVER NEXT 18 MONTHS - THE GUARDIAN
Thermal coal prices forecast to drop 25% and metallurgical coal prices 23% as value of iron ore exports also falls
The value of Aust ...
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Showing 1596 to 1600 news of total 6871 |
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- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
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