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Friday, 14 September 18
10 YEARS ON FROM LEHMAN, HOW IS SHIPPING'S "HANGOVER"? - CLARKSONS RESEARCH
 On 15th September 2008, the collapse of Lehman Brothers crystallised the financial crisis and the onset the worst economic downturn for a century. To a shipping industry used to extreme cycles but transitioning to recession with rapid trade collapse and a huge newbuilding orderbook the initial shock was severe and the “hangover” prolonged. This week’s Analysis compares the situation almost ten years to the day.
Bye Bye Boom… Even for an industry well used to severe cycles (and with warning signals if you looked hard enough), after five years of freight rates sustained at levels not seen for a century, the transition to recession after Lehman was dramatic. The most catastrophic collapse was in Capesize. From surging to a frenzied $300,000/day in June 2008 (fanned by a $180/t iron ore price, stockpiling and congestion) earnings collapsed to $6,000/day in October and $2,000/day in November. Initially the tanker market was more stable, helped by single hull conversion and trader storage, while the container market saw 12% of the fleet laid up by late-2009.
Not The 80s Revisited? As our graph shows, unsurprisingly rates and prices today sit well below the week preceding Lehman. But although the shipping recession has felt prolonged, it’s been far from a “dead” decade with surprising upside at times. Even in 2009, Capesize earnings rose to $70,000/day as China’s steel output yo-yoed. There were also spikes in LNG (2012), LPG (2014-5), tankers (2015) and offshore (2013-14); and heavy (over!) newbuild ordering (2010, 2013) and record years for S&P (2017), so plenty of business has been done, helped by low interest rates. Arguably the container sector has had the most pain (but it’s a close call, and spare a thought for the bankers?).
Shipyard Surge…
Although shipyard output has dropped by 16% over the ten years (to 80m dwt), that’s far from the whole story! Having built up a record backlog (c.650m dwt, a daunting 55% of the fleet) and at prices that “on paper” were very profitable, the unravelling of the financial and contractual complexities became an appallingly complex task (especially with 30% of the capacity involved “greenfield”, and financial structures such as the KG). With analysts tracking cancellation and slippage closely, shipyard production eventually peaked in 2011 (the fastest output growth in peace time). At times fleet growth has felt relentless (peaking at 9% in 2011, a more helpful 2.6% in 2018) as shipbuilding has worked through its overcapacity. Although demolition has doubled in the ten years since, the world fleet is still a staggering 67% larger today (1.96m dwt!) than at the onset of the financial crisis.
Trading Up?
The immediate sea trade deterioration was severe, with volumes declining for only the second time in 30 years in 2009 (by 4%, with oil down 3%, dry bulk down 3% and containers down 9%). Trends since have been more encouraging, with a 38% increase (exactly the same % as GDP growth) to 12.0bn tonnes (big winners include dry bulk (+1.7bt), supported by a series of Chinese fiscal stimulus and infrastructure investments). After a “tough” ten years, that’s a more positive note to end on! Have a better decade!
Source: Clarksons Research
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Tuesday, 25 September 18
THE INCONVENIENT TRUTH OF RISING COAL PRICES - FORBES
Coal prices are not supposed to be rising as governments tighten environmental controls but that’s precisely what is happening at the premium ...
Saturday, 22 September 18
SHIPOWNERS URGENTLY NEED A FUEL-MANAGEMENT PLAN - METTE KRONHOLM FRAENDE, BIMCO
With the majority of ship operators expected to choose low-sulphur fuel over scrubbers to comply with the new IMO sulphur cap regulation, all eyes ...
Saturday, 22 September 18
GERMANY'S MOVE TO SCRAP COAL WILL COST TAXPAYERS - BRIAN PARKIN | WILLIAM WILKES
Chancellor Angela Merkel’s plan to close Germany’s remaining coal-fired power stations will drive up subsidies for regions that mine th ...
Saturday, 22 September 18
FITCH RATINGS: WORLD GROWTH FORECAST CUT ON US-CHINA TRADE BATTLE
Protectionist US trade policies have now reached the point where they are materially affecting what remains a strong global growth outlook, with th ...
Tuesday, 18 September 18
COOLING OUTLOOK FOR COAL - KATE JONES
At a time of increasing focus on the renewables market as the world seeks to clean up its act to prevent climate change, what is the outlook like f ...
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Showing 1611 to 1615 news of total 6871 |
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- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- White Energy Company Limited
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Australian Coal Association
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Planning Commission, India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
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