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Friday, 14 September 18
10 YEARS ON FROM LEHMAN, HOW IS SHIPPING'S "HANGOVER"? - CLARKSONS RESEARCH
 On 15th September 2008, the collapse of Lehman Brothers crystallised the financial crisis and the onset the worst economic downturn for a century. To a shipping industry used to extreme cycles but transitioning to recession with rapid trade collapse and a huge newbuilding orderbook the initial shock was severe and the “hangover” prolonged. This week’s Analysis compares the situation almost ten years to the day.
Bye Bye Boom… Even for an industry well used to severe cycles (and with warning signals if you looked hard enough), after five years of freight rates sustained at levels not seen for a century, the transition to recession after Lehman was dramatic. The most catastrophic collapse was in Capesize. From surging to a frenzied $300,000/day in June 2008 (fanned by a $180/t iron ore price, stockpiling and congestion) earnings collapsed to $6,000/day in October and $2,000/day in November. Initially the tanker market was more stable, helped by single hull conversion and trader storage, while the container market saw 12% of the fleet laid up by late-2009.
Not The 80s Revisited? As our graph shows, unsurprisingly rates and prices today sit well below the week preceding Lehman. But although the shipping recession has felt prolonged, it’s been far from a “dead” decade with surprising upside at times. Even in 2009, Capesize earnings rose to $70,000/day as China’s steel output yo-yoed. There were also spikes in LNG (2012), LPG (2014-5), tankers (2015) and offshore (2013-14); and heavy (over!) newbuild ordering (2010, 2013) and record years for S&P (2017), so plenty of business has been done, helped by low interest rates. Arguably the container sector has had the most pain (but it’s a close call, and spare a thought for the bankers?).
Shipyard Surge…
Although shipyard output has dropped by 16% over the ten years (to 80m dwt), that’s far from the whole story! Having built up a record backlog (c.650m dwt, a daunting 55% of the fleet) and at prices that “on paper” were very profitable, the unravelling of the financial and contractual complexities became an appallingly complex task (especially with 30% of the capacity involved “greenfield”, and financial structures such as the KG). With analysts tracking cancellation and slippage closely, shipyard production eventually peaked in 2011 (the fastest output growth in peace time). At times fleet growth has felt relentless (peaking at 9% in 2011, a more helpful 2.6% in 2018) as shipbuilding has worked through its overcapacity. Although demolition has doubled in the ten years since, the world fleet is still a staggering 67% larger today (1.96m dwt!) than at the onset of the financial crisis.
Trading Up?
The immediate sea trade deterioration was severe, with volumes declining for only the second time in 30 years in 2009 (by 4%, with oil down 3%, dry bulk down 3% and containers down 9%). Trends since have been more encouraging, with a 38% increase (exactly the same % as GDP growth) to 12.0bn tonnes (big winners include dry bulk (+1.7bt), supported by a series of Chinese fiscal stimulus and infrastructure investments). After a “tough” ten years, that’s a more positive note to end on! Have a better decade!
Source: Clarksons Research
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Wednesday, 03 October 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
The bunker fuel supply and availability landscape is close to its transformation with the enforcement of the IMO’s global 0.5% fuel Sulphur c ...
Tuesday, 02 October 18
PANAMAX: A FURTHER RISE ACROSS ALL MAIN ROUTES THIS WEEK - ALLIED
Capesize
Finally an upward recovery was in sight in the spot market the past few days, after the prolonged negative pressure noted the weeks pr ...
Tuesday, 02 October 18
THE PRICE OF OIL CONTINUES ITS CLIMB AMIDST A SERIES OF CONCERNS REGARDING SUPPLY CONSTRAINTS - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
It has been a busy week for oil traders as the price of oil continues its climb amidst a series of concerns regarding supply constraints.
...
Tuesday, 02 October 18
INDONESIA GETS READY TO MEET INCREASED COAL DEMAND FROM CHINA, FREIGHT TO RESPOND - MIKAL BOE
Indonesian coal suppliers have increased their domestic coal production target by 4.5 percent from a previous 485 million tonnes to a massive 507 m ...
Monday, 01 October 18
SUPRAMAX: A 56,000 DWT FIXED DELIVERY FOR A SURABAYA TRIP WITH REDELIVERY TO WEST COAST INDIA AT $13,500 - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A stop-start market for the big ships with many expectations and few fulfilled. Holidays curtailed trading early in the week, but the ...
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Showing 1601 to 1605 news of total 6871 |
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- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- The University of Queensland
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Planning Commission, India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
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