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Friday, 14 September 18
10 YEARS ON FROM LEHMAN, HOW IS SHIPPING'S "HANGOVER"? - CLARKSONS RESEARCH
 On 15th September 2008, the collapse of Lehman Brothers crystallised the financial crisis and the onset the worst economic downturn for a century. To a shipping industry used to extreme cycles but transitioning to recession with rapid trade collapse and a huge newbuilding orderbook the initial shock was severe and the “hangover” prolonged. This week’s Analysis compares the situation almost ten years to the day.
Bye Bye Boom… Even for an industry well used to severe cycles (and with warning signals if you looked hard enough), after five years of freight rates sustained at levels not seen for a century, the transition to recession after Lehman was dramatic. The most catastrophic collapse was in Capesize. From surging to a frenzied $300,000/day in June 2008 (fanned by a $180/t iron ore price, stockpiling and congestion) earnings collapsed to $6,000/day in October and $2,000/day in November. Initially the tanker market was more stable, helped by single hull conversion and trader storage, while the container market saw 12% of the fleet laid up by late-2009.
Not The 80s Revisited? As our graph shows, unsurprisingly rates and prices today sit well below the week preceding Lehman. But although the shipping recession has felt prolonged, it’s been far from a “dead” decade with surprising upside at times. Even in 2009, Capesize earnings rose to $70,000/day as China’s steel output yo-yoed. There were also spikes in LNG (2012), LPG (2014-5), tankers (2015) and offshore (2013-14); and heavy (over!) newbuild ordering (2010, 2013) and record years for S&P (2017), so plenty of business has been done, helped by low interest rates. Arguably the container sector has had the most pain (but it’s a close call, and spare a thought for the bankers?).
Shipyard Surge…
Although shipyard output has dropped by 16% over the ten years (to 80m dwt), that’s far from the whole story! Having built up a record backlog (c.650m dwt, a daunting 55% of the fleet) and at prices that “on paper” were very profitable, the unravelling of the financial and contractual complexities became an appallingly complex task (especially with 30% of the capacity involved “greenfield”, and financial structures such as the KG). With analysts tracking cancellation and slippage closely, shipyard production eventually peaked in 2011 (the fastest output growth in peace time). At times fleet growth has felt relentless (peaking at 9% in 2011, a more helpful 2.6% in 2018) as shipbuilding has worked through its overcapacity. Although demolition has doubled in the ten years since, the world fleet is still a staggering 67% larger today (1.96m dwt!) than at the onset of the financial crisis.
Trading Up?
The immediate sea trade deterioration was severe, with volumes declining for only the second time in 30 years in 2009 (by 4%, with oil down 3%, dry bulk down 3% and containers down 9%). Trends since have been more encouraging, with a 38% increase (exactly the same % as GDP growth) to 12.0bn tonnes (big winners include dry bulk (+1.7bt), supported by a series of Chinese fiscal stimulus and infrastructure investments). After a “tough” ten years, that’s a more positive note to end on! Have a better decade!
Source: Clarksons Research
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Monday, 29 October 18
IMPLEMENTATION OF SULPHUR 2020 LIMIT - CARRIAGE BAN ADOPTED - IMO
An amendment to support consistent implementation of the forthcoming 0.50% limit on sulphur in ships fuel oil was adopted by the International Mari ...
Monday, 29 October 18
SUPRAMAX: THE ASIAN AREA SAW FALLING RATES, WITH A 61,000DWT FIXING DELIVERY KOHSICHANG TRIP VIA INDONESIA, REDELIVERY INDIA, AT $10,500 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A market of two halves for most of the week with rates in the Atlantic firming and easing in the East for most of the week, but then, ...
Friday, 26 October 18
SHIP OPERATING COSTS EXPECTED TO RISE IN 2018 AND 2019 - MOORE STEPHENS
Total vessel operating costs in the shipping industry are expected to rise by 2.7% in 2018 and by 3.1% in 2019, according to our latest survey.
...
Friday, 26 October 18
SEVERAL CONTRACTIONS IN GLOBAL STEEL PRODUCTION - JEFFREY LANDSBERG
World Steel Association data released today shows that global crude steel production totaled approximately 151.7 million tons in September. T ...
Thursday, 25 October 18
WHAT DOES THE "IMO 2020" REGULATION REALLY SAY? A QUICK GUIDE - BIMCO
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The shipping industry has all eyes firmly fixed on the topic, but what exactly do the “IMO 2020” global sulph ...
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Showing 1576 to 1580 news of total 6871 |
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- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- The University of Queensland
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- PTC India Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
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