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Friday, 14 September 18
10 YEARS ON FROM LEHMAN, HOW IS SHIPPING'S "HANGOVER"? - CLARKSONS RESEARCH
 On 15th September 2008, the collapse of Lehman Brothers crystallised the financial crisis and the onset the worst economic downturn for a century. To a shipping industry used to extreme cycles but transitioning to recession with rapid trade collapse and a huge newbuilding orderbook the initial shock was severe and the “hangover” prolonged. This week’s Analysis compares the situation almost ten years to the day.
Bye Bye Boom… Even for an industry well used to severe cycles (and with warning signals if you looked hard enough), after five years of freight rates sustained at levels not seen for a century, the transition to recession after Lehman was dramatic. The most catastrophic collapse was in Capesize. From surging to a frenzied $300,000/day in June 2008 (fanned by a $180/t iron ore price, stockpiling and congestion) earnings collapsed to $6,000/day in October and $2,000/day in November. Initially the tanker market was more stable, helped by single hull conversion and trader storage, while the container market saw 12% of the fleet laid up by late-2009.
Not The 80s Revisited? As our graph shows, unsurprisingly rates and prices today sit well below the week preceding Lehman. But although the shipping recession has felt prolonged, it’s been far from a “dead” decade with surprising upside at times. Even in 2009, Capesize earnings rose to $70,000/day as China’s steel output yo-yoed. There were also spikes in LNG (2012), LPG (2014-5), tankers (2015) and offshore (2013-14); and heavy (over!) newbuild ordering (2010, 2013) and record years for S&P (2017), so plenty of business has been done, helped by low interest rates. Arguably the container sector has had the most pain (but it’s a close call, and spare a thought for the bankers?).
Shipyard Surge…
Although shipyard output has dropped by 16% over the ten years (to 80m dwt), that’s far from the whole story! Having built up a record backlog (c.650m dwt, a daunting 55% of the fleet) and at prices that “on paper” were very profitable, the unravelling of the financial and contractual complexities became an appallingly complex task (especially with 30% of the capacity involved “greenfield”, and financial structures such as the KG). With analysts tracking cancellation and slippage closely, shipyard production eventually peaked in 2011 (the fastest output growth in peace time). At times fleet growth has felt relentless (peaking at 9% in 2011, a more helpful 2.6% in 2018) as shipbuilding has worked through its overcapacity. Although demolition has doubled in the ten years since, the world fleet is still a staggering 67% larger today (1.96m dwt!) than at the onset of the financial crisis.
Trading Up?
The immediate sea trade deterioration was severe, with volumes declining for only the second time in 30 years in 2009 (by 4%, with oil down 3%, dry bulk down 3% and containers down 9%). Trends since have been more encouraging, with a 38% increase (exactly the same % as GDP growth) to 12.0bn tonnes (big winners include dry bulk (+1.7bt), supported by a series of Chinese fiscal stimulus and infrastructure investments). After a “tough” ten years, that’s a more positive note to end on! Have a better decade!
Source: Clarksons Research
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Wednesday, 24 October 18
MARKET INSIGHT - NASSOS SOULAKIS
Looking at 2018 SnP activity, it is evident that Greek, Chinese and North European (German and Norwegian) owners are the top buying nationalities, ...
Wednesday, 24 October 18
CHINESE POWER PLANT STOCKPILES AT HIGHEST LEVEL SINCE 2015 - JEFFREY LANDSBERG
Chinese power plant coal stockpiles have climbed to approximately 83.3 million tons as of the middle of this month, said Jeffrey Landsberg in his e ...
Tuesday, 23 October 18
WILL THE U.S. COAL DECLINE CONTINUE? - FORBES
What’s Trump’s new coal proposal?
Adding to its controversial plan to leverage federal authority to keep retiring baselo ...
Monday, 22 October 18
CONTINUED HIGH LNG PRICES; TRADE WAR IMPACT LIMITED - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings expects sustained high spot liquefied natural gas (LNG) and contract prices over the next two quarters on limited investment in LNG e ...
Monday, 22 October 18
WINTER OIL MARKET OUTLOOK - OPEC
The oil market in the winter season is generally characterized by demand for diesel, particularly in the northern hemisphere, leaving product marke ...
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- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Planning Commission, India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
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