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Friday, 14 September 18
10 YEARS ON FROM LEHMAN, HOW IS SHIPPING'S "HANGOVER"? - CLARKSONS RESEARCH
 On 15th September 2008, the collapse of Lehman Brothers crystallised the financial crisis and the onset the worst economic downturn for a century. To a shipping industry used to extreme cycles but transitioning to recession with rapid trade collapse and a huge newbuilding orderbook the initial shock was severe and the “hangover” prolonged. This week’s Analysis compares the situation almost ten years to the day.
Bye Bye Boom… Even for an industry well used to severe cycles (and with warning signals if you looked hard enough), after five years of freight rates sustained at levels not seen for a century, the transition to recession after Lehman was dramatic. The most catastrophic collapse was in Capesize. From surging to a frenzied $300,000/day in June 2008 (fanned by a $180/t iron ore price, stockpiling and congestion) earnings collapsed to $6,000/day in October and $2,000/day in November. Initially the tanker market was more stable, helped by single hull conversion and trader storage, while the container market saw 12% of the fleet laid up by late-2009.
Not The 80s Revisited? As our graph shows, unsurprisingly rates and prices today sit well below the week preceding Lehman. But although the shipping recession has felt prolonged, it’s been far from a “dead” decade with surprising upside at times. Even in 2009, Capesize earnings rose to $70,000/day as China’s steel output yo-yoed. There were also spikes in LNG (2012), LPG (2014-5), tankers (2015) and offshore (2013-14); and heavy (over!) newbuild ordering (2010, 2013) and record years for S&P (2017), so plenty of business has been done, helped by low interest rates. Arguably the container sector has had the most pain (but it’s a close call, and spare a thought for the bankers?).
Shipyard Surge…
Although shipyard output has dropped by 16% over the ten years (to 80m dwt), that’s far from the whole story! Having built up a record backlog (c.650m dwt, a daunting 55% of the fleet) and at prices that “on paper” were very profitable, the unravelling of the financial and contractual complexities became an appallingly complex task (especially with 30% of the capacity involved “greenfield”, and financial structures such as the KG). With analysts tracking cancellation and slippage closely, shipyard production eventually peaked in 2011 (the fastest output growth in peace time). At times fleet growth has felt relentless (peaking at 9% in 2011, a more helpful 2.6% in 2018) as shipbuilding has worked through its overcapacity. Although demolition has doubled in the ten years since, the world fleet is still a staggering 67% larger today (1.96m dwt!) than at the onset of the financial crisis.
Trading Up?
The immediate sea trade deterioration was severe, with volumes declining for only the second time in 30 years in 2009 (by 4%, with oil down 3%, dry bulk down 3% and containers down 9%). Trends since have been more encouraging, with a 38% increase (exactly the same % as GDP growth) to 12.0bn tonnes (big winners include dry bulk (+1.7bt), supported by a series of Chinese fiscal stimulus and infrastructure investments). After a “tough” ten years, that’s a more positive note to end on! Have a better decade!
Source: Clarksons Research
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Friday, 02 November 18
COAL FETCHES 102% PREMIUM IN E-AUCTION, SURPASSING THE EARLIER HIGHEST OF 95% - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
Coal prices have received a premium of 102% in spot e-auction during September 2018, surpassing the earlier highest of 95% premium during the spot ...
Friday, 02 November 18
CHINA: COAL CONSUMPTION POSTS STRONG GROWTH ON BACK OF POWER GENERATION DEMAND - CHINA DAILY
China’s energy consumption experienced continuous rebound during the first three quarters in 2018, National Energy Administration announced o ...
Thursday, 01 November 18
IMO 2020 - EXPLORING THE OPTION OF SOX SCRUBBERS - SIDDHARTH MAHAJAN, GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
There are four possible methods of compliance:
1.use VLSFO (very low Sulphur oil) or blends;
2,use dis ...
Wednesday, 31 October 18
INDIA: COAL IMPORTS SURGE ON DOMESTIC SHORT SUPPLY - HINDU
Shortage of thermal coal supply in India has pushed imports up to 85 million tonnes (mt) in the first half of the current fiscal compared to 75 mt ...
Wednesday, 31 October 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - APOSTOLOS ROMPOPOULOS
Since the IMO’s 2020 global cap on sulphur in marine fuels is coming into force, ship-owners have to decide whether they will operate using e ...
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- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- PTC India Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Australian Coal Association
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
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