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Friday, 14 September 18
10 YEARS ON FROM LEHMAN, HOW IS SHIPPING'S "HANGOVER"? - CLARKSONS RESEARCH
 On 15th September 2008, the collapse of Lehman Brothers crystallised the financial crisis and the onset the worst economic downturn for a century. To a shipping industry used to extreme cycles but transitioning to recession with rapid trade collapse and a huge newbuilding orderbook the initial shock was severe and the “hangover” prolonged. This week’s Analysis compares the situation almost ten years to the day.
Bye Bye Boom… Even for an industry well used to severe cycles (and with warning signals if you looked hard enough), after five years of freight rates sustained at levels not seen for a century, the transition to recession after Lehman was dramatic. The most catastrophic collapse was in Capesize. From surging to a frenzied $300,000/day in June 2008 (fanned by a $180/t iron ore price, stockpiling and congestion) earnings collapsed to $6,000/day in October and $2,000/day in November. Initially the tanker market was more stable, helped by single hull conversion and trader storage, while the container market saw 12% of the fleet laid up by late-2009.
Not The 80s Revisited? As our graph shows, unsurprisingly rates and prices today sit well below the week preceding Lehman. But although the shipping recession has felt prolonged, it’s been far from a “dead” decade with surprising upside at times. Even in 2009, Capesize earnings rose to $70,000/day as China’s steel output yo-yoed. There were also spikes in LNG (2012), LPG (2014-5), tankers (2015) and offshore (2013-14); and heavy (over!) newbuild ordering (2010, 2013) and record years for S&P (2017), so plenty of business has been done, helped by low interest rates. Arguably the container sector has had the most pain (but it’s a close call, and spare a thought for the bankers?).
Shipyard Surge…
Although shipyard output has dropped by 16% over the ten years (to 80m dwt), that’s far from the whole story! Having built up a record backlog (c.650m dwt, a daunting 55% of the fleet) and at prices that “on paper” were very profitable, the unravelling of the financial and contractual complexities became an appallingly complex task (especially with 30% of the capacity involved “greenfield”, and financial structures such as the KG). With analysts tracking cancellation and slippage closely, shipyard production eventually peaked in 2011 (the fastest output growth in peace time). At times fleet growth has felt relentless (peaking at 9% in 2011, a more helpful 2.6% in 2018) as shipbuilding has worked through its overcapacity. Although demolition has doubled in the ten years since, the world fleet is still a staggering 67% larger today (1.96m dwt!) than at the onset of the financial crisis.
Trading Up?
The immediate sea trade deterioration was severe, with volumes declining for only the second time in 30 years in 2009 (by 4%, with oil down 3%, dry bulk down 3% and containers down 9%). Trends since have been more encouraging, with a 38% increase (exactly the same % as GDP growth) to 12.0bn tonnes (big winners include dry bulk (+1.7bt), supported by a series of Chinese fiscal stimulus and infrastructure investments). After a “tough” ten years, that’s a more positive note to end on! Have a better decade!
Source: Clarksons Research
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Saturday, 20 October 18
PANAMAX: THE PACIFIC SAW A LARGE VOLUME OF FIXING, WITH INDONESIA AGAIN THE DRIVING FORCE - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A positive end to last week after a shaky start, with a Coaltrans taking participants out of the market early on and with rates slippi ...
Thursday, 18 October 18
SUPRAMAX: INDO/WC INDIA SUPRAS ARE FIXING AROUND MID $14000S P/D BASIS SPORE DELIVERY
Capesize
The volatile Cape market continues this week, especially in the Pacific says Fearnleys in its latest weekly report.
...
Thursday, 18 October 18
COAL SHORTAGE HITS POWER SECTOR AGAIN; HOW INDIA CAN GET ITS PRODUCTION RIGHT - ANIL SWARUP
By convincing states of the value proposition of increased production, the record production of Fy15 & Fy16 can be emulated.
The ...
Thursday, 18 October 18
CHINA POWER REFORM NEUTRAL ON GRIDS, PRESSURES IPP MARGINS - FITCH RATINGS
China's power sector reform has a broadly neutral impact on transmission grids although it will pressure the power producers' margins, says ...
Wednesday, 17 October 18
ESCROW SERVICE FOR BALTIC MEMBERS NOW LIVE
The Baltic Exchange’s Escrow Service for its members to hold deposits for ship sale transactions goes live today (15 October). The service is ...
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Showing 1586 to 1590 news of total 6871 |
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- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- White Energy Company Limited
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Planning Commission, India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- The University of Queensland
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
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