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Friday, 14 September 18
10 YEARS ON FROM LEHMAN, HOW IS SHIPPING'S "HANGOVER"? - CLARKSONS RESEARCH
 On 15th September 2008, the collapse of Lehman Brothers crystallised the financial crisis and the onset the worst economic downturn for a century. To a shipping industry used to extreme cycles but transitioning to recession with rapid trade collapse and a huge newbuilding orderbook the initial shock was severe and the “hangover” prolonged. This week’s Analysis compares the situation almost ten years to the day.
Bye Bye Boom… Even for an industry well used to severe cycles (and with warning signals if you looked hard enough), after five years of freight rates sustained at levels not seen for a century, the transition to recession after Lehman was dramatic. The most catastrophic collapse was in Capesize. From surging to a frenzied $300,000/day in June 2008 (fanned by a $180/t iron ore price, stockpiling and congestion) earnings collapsed to $6,000/day in October and $2,000/day in November. Initially the tanker market was more stable, helped by single hull conversion and trader storage, while the container market saw 12% of the fleet laid up by late-2009.
Not The 80s Revisited? As our graph shows, unsurprisingly rates and prices today sit well below the week preceding Lehman. But although the shipping recession has felt prolonged, it’s been far from a “dead” decade with surprising upside at times. Even in 2009, Capesize earnings rose to $70,000/day as China’s steel output yo-yoed. There were also spikes in LNG (2012), LPG (2014-5), tankers (2015) and offshore (2013-14); and heavy (over!) newbuild ordering (2010, 2013) and record years for S&P (2017), so plenty of business has been done, helped by low interest rates. Arguably the container sector has had the most pain (but it’s a close call, and spare a thought for the bankers?).
Shipyard Surge…
Although shipyard output has dropped by 16% over the ten years (to 80m dwt), that’s far from the whole story! Having built up a record backlog (c.650m dwt, a daunting 55% of the fleet) and at prices that “on paper” were very profitable, the unravelling of the financial and contractual complexities became an appallingly complex task (especially with 30% of the capacity involved “greenfield”, and financial structures such as the KG). With analysts tracking cancellation and slippage closely, shipyard production eventually peaked in 2011 (the fastest output growth in peace time). At times fleet growth has felt relentless (peaking at 9% in 2011, a more helpful 2.6% in 2018) as shipbuilding has worked through its overcapacity. Although demolition has doubled in the ten years since, the world fleet is still a staggering 67% larger today (1.96m dwt!) than at the onset of the financial crisis.
Trading Up?
The immediate sea trade deterioration was severe, with volumes declining for only the second time in 30 years in 2009 (by 4%, with oil down 3%, dry bulk down 3% and containers down 9%). Trends since have been more encouraging, with a 38% increase (exactly the same % as GDP growth) to 12.0bn tonnes (big winners include dry bulk (+1.7bt), supported by a series of Chinese fiscal stimulus and infrastructure investments). After a “tough” ten years, that’s a more positive note to end on! Have a better decade!
Source: Clarksons Research
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Tuesday, 13 November 18
INDIA: POWER DEMAND UP; COAL STOCKS AT MINES AT A 5-YEAR LOW - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
Stocks at Coal India mines plunged to a five-year low of 21 million tonne (mt) in October, as a sudden surge in demand for the fuel from the power ...
Monday, 12 November 18
COAL BUSINESS REMAINS PROSPECTIVE - ANTARA
Coal business happened to be sluggish in the 2012-2015 period because coal prices in the world market fell sharply, but it has begun to crawl up si ...
Monday, 12 November 18
INDONESIA'S HBA ENDS DECLINE IN NOVEMBER
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal ...
Wednesday, 07 November 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - VASILIS MOIRIS
This has been another active week in the second-hand market for both the dry bulk and tanker sectors. Buying interest has recently increased, which ...
Monday, 05 November 18
TIGHTER FUEL RULES COULD RAISE SHIPOWNERS' COSTS AND CAPEX - FITCH RATINGS
More stringent fuel regulations regarding sulphur content could significantly increase global shipping companies’ operating costs and capex n ...
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- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- The University of Queensland
- White Energy Company Limited
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Planning Commission, India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
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