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Thursday, 13 September 18
OPEC SEES SLOWER 2019 OIL DEMAND GROWTH, WARNS ON ECONOMY
 Crude Oil Price Movements
In August, the OPEC Reference Basket declined by $1.01 m-o-m, settling at $72.26/b. Crude oil futures were also down for the month. Price declines were mainly due to worries that the ongoing global trade disputes would lower oil demand, strengthening US dollar, US stock builds and reported supply increases. ICE Brent was $1.11 lower at $73.84/b compared to the previous month, while NYMEX WTI was down $2.74 at $67.85/b and DME Oman dropped 24¢ to $72.67/b. However, year-to-date (y-t-d) ICE Brent was still $19.86 higher at $72.00/b, while NYMEX WTI increased by $17.12 to $66.42/b and DME Oman was up $18.70 at $69.55/b. The Brent-WTI spread widened to average $6.00/b. Speculative net long positions ended mixed, with those of NYMEX WTI lower. As for market structure, the backwardation in Dubai remained unchanged, while that of WTI eased. The contango structure for Brent for the rest of the year deepened amid increasing supplies. The discount of sour to sweet crudes decreased due to an anticipated tightening of sour crude, while sweet crude availability was ample.
World Economy
The global GDP growth forecast remains at 3.8% for 2018 and 3.6% for 2019. In the OECD, growth in the US is assessed unchanged at 2.9% in 2018 and 2.5% in 2019. Euro-zone growth remains at 2.0% for 2018 and 1.9% for 2019. GDP growth in Japan is revised down by 0.1 pp to 1.1% in both 2018 and 2019. Meanwhile, in the non-OECD, India’s forecast is revised up to 7.6% for 2018, while remaining unchanged at 7.4% for 2019. China’s GDP growth remains at 6.6% for 2018 and 6.2% for 2019. Growth in Brazil is revised down by 0.4% to reach 1.2% in 2018, but a rebound to 2.0% is anticipated in 2019. Russia’s GDP growth forecast is also revised lower to 1.6% in 2018 and down to 1.7% in 2019.
World Oil Demand
In 2018, world oil demand is expected to grow by 1.62 mb/d, a minor downward revision from last month’s projection. In the OECD region, oil demand saw healthy growth in all three main OECD regions, particularly in the Americas over 1H18. In contrast, the non-OECD region, mainly Latin America and the Middle East, saw weaker oil requirements in 1H18 as well as slower economic projections, which has led to a net downward revision of 20 tb/d from last month’s report. Total oil demand for 2018 is now estimated at 98.82 mb/d. In 2019, world oil demand growth is forecast to rise by 1.41 mb/d, a minor downward adjustment of 20 tb/d from the previous month’s assessment, mainly reflecting the less optimistic economic projections in the non-OECD regions of Latin America and the Middle East compared to last month. Total world oil demand in 2019 is now projected to surpass 100 mb/d for the first time and reach 100.23 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC oil supply in 2018 is expected to grow by 2.02 mb/d, a downward revision of 64 tb/d. The US, Canada, Kazakhstan the UK, and Brazil remain to be the main drivers for growth, while Mexico and Norway are projected to show the largest declines. Total non-OPEC supply for 2018 is now estimated at 59.56 mb/d. Non-OPEC oil supply in 2019 is forecast to grow by 2.15 mb/d, a minor upward revision of 17 tb/d. The US, Brazil, Canada, and the UK are expected to be the main growth drivers, while Mexico and Norway remain to be the largest declines. Non-OPEC supply is now forecast to average 61.71 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs in 2018 and 2019 are expected to grow by 0.12 mb/d and 0.11 mb/d to average 6.36 mb/d and 6.47 mb/d, respectively. In August, OPEC crude oil production increased by 278 tb/d to average 32.56 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins at all main trading hubs recorded gains in August as several refinery outages prompted product supply disruptions, which led to strengthening at the top and middle of the barrel. In the US, product markets strengthened, supported mainly by higher product exports, particularly to Latin America. In Europe, declining Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp product inventories resulted in tighter product balances, which provided substantial support to refining margins. Meanwhile in Asia, refining margins strengthened on the back of lower refinery intakes caused by unplanned shutdowns and bullish market sentiment.
Tanker Market
In August, dirty vessel spot freight rates increased by 5% on average compared to a month earlier. This was mainly driven by higher freight rates for VLCC and Aframax, while average Suezmax freight rates showed a decline. Enhanced activity and delays on the US Gulf Coast (USGC) and Asia supported freight rates in August. In the clean tanker market, spot freight rates remained under pressure as high vessel availability continued, while tonnage demand remained limited, therefore resulting in rate declines in both the eastern and western directions of Suez.
Stock Movements
Data for July showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 8.1 mb m-o-m, standing at 2,830 mb, which is 194 mb lower than a year ago and 43 mb below the latest five-year average, but remain 260 mb above the January 2014 level. Compared to the latest five-year average, crude stocks indicated a deficit of 0.2 mb, while product stocks witnessed a deficit of 43 mb. In terms of days of forward demand cover, OECD commercial stocks rose by 0.1 days m-o-m in July to stand at 59.1 days, which is 2.3 days below the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
In 2018, demand for OPEC crude is expected at 32.9 mb/d, which is 0.5 mb/d lower than in the previous year. In 2019, demand for OPEC crude is forecast at 32.1 mb/d, around 0.9 mb/d lower than a year earlier.
Source: OPEC
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Thursday, 05 April 18
INDONESIA TO POSTPONE NEW COAL, PALM OIL SHIPPING RULES TO 2020 - REUTERS
Indonesia will delay until 2020 trade rules requiring exporters of coal and crude palm oil to use only Indonesian-flagged vessels, government offic ...
Tuesday, 03 April 18
MARKET ANALYSIS - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
In the midst of a relatively quiet week for markets, with disruptions being caused by the Christian holidays, it seems as though we find ourselves ...
Monday, 02 April 18
THE FREIGHT RATES ARE EXPECTED TO BE FLAT TO SOFT, SAYS VISTAAR
The freight market softening to continue. Thursday, March 29, 2018, the Baltic Dry Index decreased by 42 points, reaching 1080 points.
T ...
Monday, 02 April 18
THIESS TO DELIVER $150M SENAKIN CONTRACT EXTENSION
Thiess has secured a $150 million contract extension to provide mine services at Arutmin’s Senakin coal mine in South Kalimantan, Indonesia.
...
Monday, 02 April 18
THIESS SECURES $240M SATUI EXTENSION
The successful implementation of an innovative mining plan by Thiess at the Satui coal mine in South Kalimantan, has resulted in a $240 million con ...
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- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- The University of Queensland
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- PTC India Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bhatia International Limited - India
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