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Thursday, 13 September 18
OPEC SEES SLOWER 2019 OIL DEMAND GROWTH, WARNS ON ECONOMY
 Crude Oil Price Movements
In August, the OPEC Reference Basket declined by $1.01 m-o-m, settling at $72.26/b. Crude oil futures were also down for the month. Price declines were mainly due to worries that the ongoing global trade disputes would lower oil demand, strengthening US dollar, US stock builds and reported supply increases. ICE Brent was $1.11 lower at $73.84/b compared to the previous month, while NYMEX WTI was down $2.74 at $67.85/b and DME Oman dropped 24¢ to $72.67/b. However, year-to-date (y-t-d) ICE Brent was still $19.86 higher at $72.00/b, while NYMEX WTI increased by $17.12 to $66.42/b and DME Oman was up $18.70 at $69.55/b. The Brent-WTI spread widened to average $6.00/b. Speculative net long positions ended mixed, with those of NYMEX WTI lower. As for market structure, the backwardation in Dubai remained unchanged, while that of WTI eased. The contango structure for Brent for the rest of the year deepened amid increasing supplies. The discount of sour to sweet crudes decreased due to an anticipated tightening of sour crude, while sweet crude availability was ample.
World Economy
The global GDP growth forecast remains at 3.8% for 2018 and 3.6% for 2019. In the OECD, growth in the US is assessed unchanged at 2.9% in 2018 and 2.5% in 2019. Euro-zone growth remains at 2.0% for 2018 and 1.9% for 2019. GDP growth in Japan is revised down by 0.1 pp to 1.1% in both 2018 and 2019. Meanwhile, in the non-OECD, India’s forecast is revised up to 7.6% for 2018, while remaining unchanged at 7.4% for 2019. China’s GDP growth remains at 6.6% for 2018 and 6.2% for 2019. Growth in Brazil is revised down by 0.4% to reach 1.2% in 2018, but a rebound to 2.0% is anticipated in 2019. Russia’s GDP growth forecast is also revised lower to 1.6% in 2018 and down to 1.7% in 2019.
World Oil Demand
In 2018, world oil demand is expected to grow by 1.62 mb/d, a minor downward revision from last month’s projection. In the OECD region, oil demand saw healthy growth in all three main OECD regions, particularly in the Americas over 1H18. In contrast, the non-OECD region, mainly Latin America and the Middle East, saw weaker oil requirements in 1H18 as well as slower economic projections, which has led to a net downward revision of 20 tb/d from last month’s report. Total oil demand for 2018 is now estimated at 98.82 mb/d. In 2019, world oil demand growth is forecast to rise by 1.41 mb/d, a minor downward adjustment of 20 tb/d from the previous month’s assessment, mainly reflecting the less optimistic economic projections in the non-OECD regions of Latin America and the Middle East compared to last month. Total world oil demand in 2019 is now projected to surpass 100 mb/d for the first time and reach 100.23 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC oil supply in 2018 is expected to grow by 2.02 mb/d, a downward revision of 64 tb/d. The US, Canada, Kazakhstan the UK, and Brazil remain to be the main drivers for growth, while Mexico and Norway are projected to show the largest declines. Total non-OPEC supply for 2018 is now estimated at 59.56 mb/d. Non-OPEC oil supply in 2019 is forecast to grow by 2.15 mb/d, a minor upward revision of 17 tb/d. The US, Brazil, Canada, and the UK are expected to be the main growth drivers, while Mexico and Norway remain to be the largest declines. Non-OPEC supply is now forecast to average 61.71 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs in 2018 and 2019 are expected to grow by 0.12 mb/d and 0.11 mb/d to average 6.36 mb/d and 6.47 mb/d, respectively. In August, OPEC crude oil production increased by 278 tb/d to average 32.56 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins at all main trading hubs recorded gains in August as several refinery outages prompted product supply disruptions, which led to strengthening at the top and middle of the barrel. In the US, product markets strengthened, supported mainly by higher product exports, particularly to Latin America. In Europe, declining Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp product inventories resulted in tighter product balances, which provided substantial support to refining margins. Meanwhile in Asia, refining margins strengthened on the back of lower refinery intakes caused by unplanned shutdowns and bullish market sentiment.
Tanker Market
In August, dirty vessel spot freight rates increased by 5% on average compared to a month earlier. This was mainly driven by higher freight rates for VLCC and Aframax, while average Suezmax freight rates showed a decline. Enhanced activity and delays on the US Gulf Coast (USGC) and Asia supported freight rates in August. In the clean tanker market, spot freight rates remained under pressure as high vessel availability continued, while tonnage demand remained limited, therefore resulting in rate declines in both the eastern and western directions of Suez.
Stock Movements
Data for July showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 8.1 mb m-o-m, standing at 2,830 mb, which is 194 mb lower than a year ago and 43 mb below the latest five-year average, but remain 260 mb above the January 2014 level. Compared to the latest five-year average, crude stocks indicated a deficit of 0.2 mb, while product stocks witnessed a deficit of 43 mb. In terms of days of forward demand cover, OECD commercial stocks rose by 0.1 days m-o-m in July to stand at 59.1 days, which is 2.3 days below the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
In 2018, demand for OPEC crude is expected at 32.9 mb/d, which is 0.5 mb/d lower than in the previous year. In 2019, demand for OPEC crude is forecast at 32.1 mb/d, around 0.9 mb/d lower than a year earlier.
Source: OPEC
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Friday, 30 March 18
SHIPPING INDUSTRY CONFIDENCE HITS FOUR-YEAR HIGH - MOORE STEPHENS
Shipping Confidence Survey
In February 2018, the average confidence level expressed by respondents was up from 6.2 in November 2017 t ...
Friday, 30 March 18
EXPLAINING POLAND'S COAL PARADOX - FORBES
In the U.S. coal is succumbing to market forces despite the Trump Administration’s push to support the industry. Abundant, cheap and cleaner ...
Friday, 30 March 18
THIESS SECURES $140M MT OWEN INCREASE
Thiess has secured a A$140 million increase to its contract with Glencore for coal mining services at Mt Owen in the Hunter Valley, Australia. Mt O ...
Wednesday, 28 March 18
THIESS WINS $280M WAHANA EXTENSION
Thiess has been awarded a three-year $280 million contract extension at the Wahana coal mine in South Kalimantan, Indonesia.
According to Thie ...
Wednesday, 28 March 18
RIO TINTO TO SELL KESTREL MINE FOR $2.25 BILLION - REUTERS
Rio Tinto sold its remaining coal asset Kestrel in Australia to private equity manager EMR Capital and Indonesia’s Adaro Energy Tbk for $2.25 ...
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- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Planning Commission, India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
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